Enron Mail

From:eservices@tdwaterhouse.com
To:pallen@enron.com
Subject:Market Insight: Restraints Will Be Overcome
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Mon, 24 Dec 2001 14:18:38 -0800 (PST)


[IMAGE] Market Insight for December 24, 2001 From [IMAGE] The Gl=
obal Online Financial Services Firm Please note, the Market Insight will =
not be published next week. Have a safe and happy holiday season! Deadl=
ine for Converting to a Roth IRA December 31, 2001 is your deadline for co=
nverting a Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. You should consult with a tax pr=
ofessional or accountant to help you determine if a conversion is advantag=
eous for you. For assistance, please call 1-800-934-4448, press 4 then 4 =
to speak with a Retirement Plans Specialist. Restraints Will Be Overcome =
We see an irregular upward trend in the market. Stocks face some formid=
able hurdles. The risk of additional terrorism and fresh memories of the m=
arket's 18-month downward spiral are inhibiting buying. So are dismal four=
th-quarter earnings pre-announcements as the economic cycle approaches bot=
tom, as well as continued high P/E ratios on recession-depressed profits. =
In addition, the supply of stock for sale at prices just above current lev=
els is heavy, according to technical analysts. But we expect that these=
and other impediments will be overcome. And we note that market recoverie=
s that proceed in halting fashion amid widespread skepticism often are the=
most sustainable. Congress's failure to pass a fiscal stimulus bill is n=
ot a major negative, according to S&P chief economist David Wyss. The econ=
omy will recover anyway, says Wyss, with absence of the package pinching =
GDP growth in 2002 by only 0.2%. Without fiscal stimulus, the chances of a=
12th fed funds rate cut on January 30 are improved. Based on Wyss's fo=
recast of GDP turning positive in the first quarter and improving to an an=
nual growth rate of 5% in the fourth quarter, investors should be getting =
more encouraging news before long. The recent rally lost upward momentu=
m when it bumped up against overhead resistance at 1170 on the S&P 500 on =
December 5. With the help of turn-of-the-year reinvestment demand, the nex=
t attempt to work through this supply is likely to be more successful, say=
s Mark Arbeter, S&P chief technical analyst. But even if it is, the area =
of resistance runs all the way up to 1313, so Arbeter believes further pro=
gress in the period ahead will be labored. We think the S&P 500 and Nas=
daq will see double-digit gains over the course of 2002. A portfolio alloc=
ation of 65% stocks, 20% bonds and 15% cash reserves remains appropriate. =
As a TD Waterhouse customer, you can view a complete copy of S&P's The O=
utlook (a $298 value) for FREE. Just select 'News & Research' when you log=
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