John,

Two items:

1. I spoke to John McKay about Sumas. His views seem well thought out. He is short the summer due to the prospect of another 200,000+/day of supply coming back by July 1st. See attached spreadsheet. In order to displace Aeco gas coming down to Kingsgate his target for Sumas value is AECO -0.10. But since his forecast for Aeco is that they will have 30 BCF left in storage at the end of March and current cash is trading down 0.70 or wider versus a rest of summer curve around down 0.50, he is expecting the AECO curve to widen to down 0.85. Therefore, his ultimate target for Sumas is down 0.95 versus the current market of down 0.40
His winter Sumas shorts are based on his analysis of total supply capacity versus peak demand. See attached spreadsheet. Sumas still commands the premium of an isolated market during the winter but the supply numbers don't support that premium.
In conclusion, I think I will sell some more summer sumas for my book.

2. I will stay after the meeting to talk about Mike G's issues.