Greg,

This spreadsheet is an attempt to outline supply & demand in San Marcos by unit. Next, I want to look at the numbers by bedroom. Let's compare numbers.

Here is a list of questions:

1. Unit mixes of all proposed projects.
2. Completion date of Blazer Development (220), Capstone (270), Melrose (202), Bonner-Carr. (186)
3. Is the Capstone 270 units or 270 beds?

This spreadsheet illustrates that supply will exceed demand in 2002 but demand will catch up in 2003-2005. San Marcos will have over 6,000 units. If the 350 excess units in 2002 were distributed over the entire population that would push occupancy down by 5%. That would not be a disaster.

Tomorrow, I would like to refine this spreadsheet and try to support some of the population and job growth assumptions with more current data.

Let me know what you think.

Phillip