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Enron Mail |
i read this as though 1.5 bcf/d of more switching takes place in the summer
versus today. is that because of the forward curves are backwardated for 2 and contango for natty? From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 03/27/2001 06:55 PM To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Alex Mcleish/EU/Enron@Enron, Richard Lassander/ENRON@enronXgate Subject: Incremental Fuel Switching For Distillate-- Summer Estimate Given the shape of the curve, my guess for incremental substitution is 1.5Bcf/d for No2 oil. So for the period May-Sep01 an extra 1.5Bcf/d will be put back into the system due to No2 oil usage. Futures Settlements Mar27-01 NG CL BRT HO GSL HU PN $/Mmbtu $/BBL $/BBL Cts/Gal $/ MT Cts/Gal Cts/gal APR1 5.621 27.75 25.40 0.7794 216.25 0.9395 0.5375 MAY1 5.661 27.84 25.50 0.737 213.75 0.9306 0.5375 JUN1 5.703 27.66 25.39 0.7235 212.25 0.9111 0.5400 JUL1 5.738 27.40 25.26 0.724 212.50 0.8853 0.5425 AUG1 5.753 27.12 25.09 0.727 213.00 0.8558 0.5450 SEP1 5.713 26.85 24.91 0.7325 213.00 0.819 0.5475 OCT1 5.708 26.58 24.73 0.739 213.50 0.7765 0.5575 NOV1 5.813 26.31 24.53 0.745 214.25 0.7525 0.5600 DEC1 5.913 26.03 24.27 0.7490 215.00 0.739 0.5600 Futures Settlements DIFFS VS NG (USD/ MMBTU) (CDTY- NG) NG CL BRT HO GSL HU PN $/MMBtu $/MMBtu $/MMBtu $/MMBtu $/MMBtu $/MMBtu $/MMBtu APR1 0.00 -0.86 -1.29 0.00 -0.64 2.19 0.28 MAY1 0.00 -0.88 -1.32 -0.35 -0.74 2.08 0.24 JUN1 0.00 -0.95 -1.38 -0.49 -0.81 1.87 0.22 JUL1 0.00 -1.03 -1.43 -0.52 -0.84 1.62 0.22 AUG1 0.00 -1.10 -1.48 -0.51 -0.84 1.36 0.23 SEP1 0.00 -1.10 -1.47 -0.43 -0.80 1.10 0.41 OCT1 0.00 -1.14 -1.50 -0.38 -0.79 0.75 0.44 NOV1 0.00 -1.30 -1.63 -0.44 -0.88 0.45 #REF! DEC1 0.00 -1.44 -1.78 -0.51 -0.96 0.23 0.23 Date 27-03 Legend NG NYMEX Nat Gas CL NYMEX Crude Oil BRT IPE Brent HO NYMEX Heating Oil GSL IPE Gasoil HU NYMEX Gasoline PN 1 BBL = 42 Gal Date 27-03 Conversions NG 1 BBL = 5.825 MMBtu CL BRT HO 1 BBL = 42 Gal GSL 1 BBL =0.134 MT HU 1 BBL = 42 Gal PN 1 BBL = 42 Gal Jen Fraser Enron Global Markets Fundamentals 713-853-4759
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