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i nailed this mother. unfort reduced my short on the f#$% aga and didnt
replace enuf shorts. more lost opportunity than anything. but gamma long and vol length worked well. i called the break out luckily but conservatively. not much hope i dont think-need hurricane shutins to avoid phys problems. i think the phys problem come a bit earlier. last half sep when we get over 2.8 tcf. ratchets shud come in to impact by then. i hope we get to 2.50 or less on spot-then have a n unbeleivably cold winter so next summer has a chance. cuz man if its warm nov and dec-natgas gonna suck for alonfg time. but then thatll help my petro positions at least. i think the downside put shorts shud be gettiung very very nervous. and ther eshud be alot of them -----Original Message----- From: John.Arnold@enron.com [mailto:John.Arnold@enron.com] Sent: Sunday, August 26, 2001 10:38 PM To: LaFontaine, Steve Subject: RE: rumours wow, i missed this move. didnt realize one number meant a 30%+ swing in the price of natty. then again, i don't know why i'm surpirsed. this is one market that can overreact. trade extremely bearish here. have a hard time seeing a strong bidweek. i'm looking for a bull case and having a hard time finding one. think we have physical problems in oct? ********************************************************************** This e-mail is the property of Enron Corp. and/or its relevant affiliate and may contain confidential and privileged material for the sole use of the intended recipient (s). Any review, use, distribution or disclosure by others is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient (or authorized to receive for the recipient), please contact the sender or reply to Enron Corp. at enron.messaging.administration@enron.com and delete all copies of the message. This e-mail (and any attachments hereto) are not intended to be an offer (or an acceptance) and do not create or evidence a binding and enforceable contract between Enron Corp. (or any of its affiliates) and the intended recipient or any other party, and may not be relied on by anyone as the basis of a contract by estoppel or otherwise. Thank you. **********************************************************************
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