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Enron Mail |
very useful...thx. keep me posted
Caroline Abramo@ENRON 12/22/2000 11:41 AM To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT, Mike Maggi/Corp/Enron@Enron, Jennifer Fraser/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Per Sekse/NY/ECT@ECT Subject: fund views Hi- all the funds are trying to figure out what the play is for next year- major divergence of opinions. Most everyone we talk to takes a macro view. + Dwight Anderson from Tudor thinks anything above $6 is a sale from the perspective of shut in industrial demand- he believes that between $6-7 no industrial (basic industry type) can operate. He tracks all the plant closures similar to what Elena does in Mike Robert's group but it seems on a more comprehensive level (Jen- it would be good for fundamentals to track this number- do some scenario analysis on it under various economic conditions- like recession!!). I will try to find out what his total number for turned back gas is- just ammonia is a little more than 1/2 Bcf which does not seem all that meaningful but the total may bring us back into balance for the summer. While he's a seller above $6, he'd also be a buyer of summer at lower levels He firmly believes in increased production in 02 (still has 1.1 day short) based on his relationship with the producing community although I personally think that 1Q02 sees little. I know that the fundamentals group is tracking these numbers from the producing community and has seen no increase in 3q over 2q and is doubtful for any in 4q over 3q. He really believes theories on products being out of whack- heat/gas, crude/propane.... + Jim Pulaski is a bull period- he really likes april and may on the 0 storage scenario- I agree that we try to build storage in April but with the backwardation out there what is the incentive??? as well, with lower baseloads for the summer- deliverability should not be an issue. I am torn on this one. + Catequil- new fund- Paul Touradji - used to be with Tiger- they do the same analysis as Dwight- just starting up and one of their mandates is to be long nat gas!! through vol or outright. + Harvard- not really sure of the view yet- they have not been active in gas just crude/products- they like buying cheap vol- because they do not have MTM issues- they like to look out in the calendar years. + The other people we are starting relationships with in the new year are: Moore Capital, Global Advisors, Caxton, Paloma Partners, Kingdon, Renaissance (program trader) - just so you know the names- as I get to know them better, I'll try to fwd on thoughts regularly. Have a great holiday! I'll be here next week. Caroline
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