|
|
Enron Mail |
/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Hi Folks, Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week. PLEASE NOTE: See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com (will be posted soon) for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. I always receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense. Just because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. Ahman Green may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Ricky Williams or Marshall Faulk, Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up against. The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between players. Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software. http://www.fflm.com/ for more info. Fantasy Points Allowed by position numbers are from ESPN.com. Let's get to it. Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Locks: These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the Offense. Baltimore's Moe Williams vs Indianapolis Defense With Jason Brookins' unfortunate injury, Moe Williams is handed the chance of a lifetime. A month ago, he was stuck behind Terry Allen and Brookins. Now, he's likely the guy who'll be asked to carry the rushing load for the defending World Champs. I'd expect you'll see FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo to play a larger role. Williams had already started becoming a much bigger part of the passing game catching 4 passes for 47 yards last week. He also had 9 carries for 31 yards (3.4 ypc) I think he'll do fine. The Colts are reeling. Their defense ranks # 26 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and for the year, they rank # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. You saw how Garrison Heart ran wild on them last week. Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Jacksonville Defense Start Ahman Green. He rolled for 102 yards on 22 carries last week and looks as solid as ever. Jacksoville is ranked # 21 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks as if you needed another reason to start him... New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs Carolina Defense Ricky Williams struggled a bit last week but still finished with 56 yards on 15 carries (3.7 ypc) and a TD. He also added 39 yards on 3 receptions. He's simply too good to sit. The Panthers rank # 30 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Start Williams. Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Minnesota Defense Bettis faced a tough Titan team last week and still rumbled for 73 yards on 21 carries (3.5 ypc) Kordell Stewart is somewhat of a worry vulturing TDs but Bettis will get his share. The Steelers losing OL Marvel Smith for any amount of time with a knee injury could be a problem. On the plus side, the Steelers are for real and they know Bettis is their key. This week, they'll face a much softer Viking Defense that ranks # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Seattle Defense LaDainian Tomlinson was the intended target of an amazing 13 passes last week. Even more impressive is that he caught all 13 passes and netted 72 yards receiving. Paired with 75 yards rushing on 21 carries (3.6 ypc), he had a very quiet 147 yards of offense. On the downside, he did fumble and he failed to get into the endzone. His involvement in the offense though is great to see. He'll face a Seattle defense this week ranked # 28 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 17 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. They'll also be without suspended CB Shawn Springs. The Seahawks yielded 181 yards rushing last week against Kansas City. San Francisco's Garrison Hearst vs Buffalo Defense Garrison Hearst literally seemed to have turned back the clock last week. Sunday was the first time I've been able to say "that truly looks like the old Hearst". His burst and his cutbacks were exceptional. Throw in the fact that Kevan Barlow injured his shoulder and I'm liking him even more. Keep an eye on Terry Jackson and Fred Beasley to see what role the 49ers give them with Barlow out. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get some additional short yardage / goalline chances. They'll face the Bills defense that ranks # 22 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs Atlanta Defense You can't bench Marshall Faulk. Especially against Atlanta's defense ranked # 24 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. Enough said. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Prime Matchups: These games feature Defenses that should have trouble stopping the Offense. Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Oakland Defense Michael Pittman clocked in last week with another of his middle of the road performances. 44 yards on 18 carries (2.4 ypc) but he did get the TD score. I wish he'd be more productive in the passing game as QB Jake Plummer needs another option besides David Boston. This week, he faces an Oakland defense ranked a surprising # 31 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. I caught some grief last week from people who disagreed with me suggesting Tiki Barber could have a good game against Oakland. We know how that turned out. The Raiders are a very good / great team. But people run the ball on them. They're a little tougher in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where they rank # 20. Carolina's Richard Huntley vs New Orleans Defense Richard Huntley came up small again last week with several stuffs at the goalline. He had 19 carries for 55 yards (2.9 ypc) in an ugly game. Huntley's saving grace may be that Brad Hoover or any of the other Panther RBs aren't any better. This week, he'll face a Saints defense that is pretty soft lately ranked # 27 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 21 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Still, it's hard to get too excited about a Panther at this point. Chicago's Anthony Thomas / James Allen vs Detroit Defense James Allen got the start for the ailing Anthony Thomas and delivered. Allen rambled for 107 yards on 27 carries (4.0 ypc) It may have been the fast track in Minnesota, but Allen looked much quicker than I ever remember seeing him. This creates a huge headache for Allen / Thomas owners. Coach Dick Jauron would never say it, but the Bears obviously have a great chance to go deep into the playoffs. They know they need a healthy Anthony Thomas. I would think you'd see Jauron very cautious about using Thomas against a weak Detroit team. Yes, anything can happen (just ask the Packers) but I would think you'll see the Bears lean on Allen one more week. This is pure speculation on my part as it's still very early in the week. Stay tuned. Detroit ranks # 18 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. New England's Antowain Smith vs New York Jets Defense Antowain Smith continues to amaze. He rolled up 111 yards on 24 carries (4.6 ypc) last week with a TD. His longest run was 15 yards so it's not like he padded those numbers with one huge play. The Jets rank # 11 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks as they've improved greatly from early on. They rank # 23 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Oakland's Charlie Garner / Zack Crockett vs Arizona Defense Garner looked like his typical self Sunday slashing for 68 yards on 14 carries (4.9 ypc) He also caught 3 passes for 38 yards including a TD. His trouble is that he often has to watch Zack Crockett score the short TD from the sidelines. Hard to believe Coach Jon Gruden could be that insensitive to you Garner owners but that's how it is. The Cardinals rank # 17 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks but for the year rank # 25 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Garner is too explosive to sit for most teams. Tennessee's Eddie George vs Cleveland Defense For some reason, the Titans feel the need to throw on every down. Eddie George only had 15 carries last week. He did gain 58 yards (3.9 ypc) but he needs more work. The Browns are rejuvenated but they've been run on lately as they rank # 25 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Washington's Stephen Davis vs Dallas Defense Davis left the game last week with back spasms long enough for Ki-Jana Carter to steal what should have been Davis' TD. Ouch. He'd been on fire before leaving. Davis returned to the game and looks to be ok for this week. Dallas has been sliding down the defense ranking and now comes in at # 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they still rank # 10 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Even Matchups: These games feature no real advantage either way Buffalo's Travis Henry vs San Francisco Defense Just when we were ready to write Travis Henry off, he produces like we'd been expecting him to do all along. Against a very good Miami Defense, Henry rolled for 97 yards on 19 carries (5.1 ypc) and a TD. New QB Alex Van Pelt is clearly softening the defense as they now must respect the passing game. San Francisco is nothing special on defense ranking # 19 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they're # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. They allowed 127 yards to the Colts last week. Kansas City's Priest Holmes / Tony Richardson vs Philadelphia Defense Both Holmes and Richardson are valuable Fantasy players. Richardson is a real live featured RB with 120 yards on 20 carries (6.0 ypc) He threw in another 70 yards on 3 receptions to boot. Richardson doesn't get the yardage but he has a nose for endzone. He rushed 9 times for 18 yards (2.0 ypc) Sunday and scored again. The Eagle defense looked very vulnerable against the Redskin rushing game last week. They rank # 13 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 14 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs New England Defense Curtis Martin's ready to roll after a bye week as the Jets face an unexpectedly tough matchup with New England. The Patriots rank # 16 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 19 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Philadelphia's Duce Staley vs Kansas City Defense Staley seems to be running hard but his Eagles are in a funk. He rushed 15 times for 50 yards (3.3 ypc) and caught 7 passes for 40 yards Sunday. This Eagle team is sliding while Kansas City is getting stronger. The Chiefs rank # 15 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year though, they rank # 31 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so you have to think Staley might be able to do something. Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs San Diego Defense Shaun Alexander had us worried last week as he struggled on the ground with 43 yards on 13 carries (3.3 ypc) He made up for it on the receptions where he caught 6 balls for 62 yards and a score. He's looking more like Ricky Watters Plus with each game. The Chargers rank # 23 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank a very solid # 6 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Last week, they did a good job against Arizona holding them to 71 rushing yards. Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Cincinnati Defense Both of these guys turned in nice days against St. Louis Monday. Dunn rushed 14 times for 60 yards (4.3 ypc) and a score. Alstott carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards (3.4 ypc) and 2 scores. Both were factors in the passing game as well. I'd look for something similar against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati is falling back to reality and rank # 14 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Alstott is obviously more attractive in TD only leagues, but I can see going with either of these players here. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Downside Matchups: These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble for the Offense. Atlanta's Maurice Smith / Bob Christian vs St. Louis Defense Maurice Smith injured his ankle last week and turned the reins over to Bob Christian. And Christian responded in a huge way. Dan Reeves is winning with smoke and mirrors here but I wouldn't be surprised to see Christian remain a big part of this offense even if Smith can go. As you saw Monday night with Mike Alstott, the Rams are certainly vulnerable to a big powerful RB and Christian fills that bill. St. Louis ranks # 1 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 9 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. The Rams are beat up though and Christian might be worth a shot if you're ready to roll the dice. Just understand the risk though that he could go back to his old role if Smith is healthy. Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Tampa Bay Defense We've said all along that this could be a very good team if they could just get adequate play from the QBs. Evidently, that's too much to ask. With the passing game quickly fading, Dillon is having a very tough time finding any room to run. Dillon managed 63 yards on 20 carries (3.2 ypc) last week against a good Cleveland team. The going won't be any easier this week against Tampa Bay that ranks # 9 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 13 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. You never know which Dillon will show and it's tough to figure out which Buccaneer team will be there. That makes this a tough call all the way around. Cleveland's James Jackson / Ben Gay vs Tennessee Defense James Jackson tweaked his foot again so watch to see how this shakes out. Ben Gay did see action Sunday. Jackson was a non factor with 40 yards on 18 carries (2.2 ypc) Fortunately for him, Gay was even worse with 16 yards on 10 carries (1.6 ypc) This week, they'll both face a tough Titan team that's ranked # 4 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the season, they're ranked # 16 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Denver's Mike Anderson / Terrell Davis vs Miami Defense Mike Anderson answered the critics well with a 33 carry day for 118 yards (3.6 ypc) Sunday. He also scored a TD. With Olandis Gary out for the season, it's now down to Anderson and Terrell Davis. Watch this one very closely as Davis is reportedly making good progress and could play this week. If he's ready to go, I think you'll see Mike Shanahan give him plenty of carries. Some are even saying he might start. I personally think it'll be Anderson starting with Davis seeing a fair amount of action. Keep an eye on this through the week. Miami ranks # 10 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 7 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs but they were exposed by Buffalo's Travis Henry last week. Indianapolis' Dominic Rhodes vs Baltimore Defense I love to see a no name like Dominic Rhodes come in and succeed. He was extremely active last week and is doing a great job of filling in for Edgerrin James. He rushed 27 times for 104 yards (3.9 ypc) and 2 TDs. He also had 6 receptions for 43 yards. He'll face a tough defense this week in Baltimore though. The Ravens rank # 12 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Even so, unless you have very solid options, I'd take a hard look at keeping Rhodes in your lineup. Jacksonville's Stacey Mack vs Green Bay Defense Stacey Mack isn't making anyone forget about Fred Taylor but Mack owners had to like his 2 TDs last week. He put up 50 yards on 13 carries (3.8 ypc) Taylor's status is still up in the air so I'd think you'll probably see Mack again. The Packers bring a tough defense ranked # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 5 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so it's going to be rough going for him. Although it won't be as tough as it was last week against the Ravens. On a side note, I keep hearing whispers that Taylor could be done for the season. Nothing official from the Jaguars though. You truly never know with Fred Taylor. I could see him missing the rest of the games and I could also see him stepping in for week 16 and lighting up the scoreboard. Miami's Lamar Smith / Travis Minor vs Denver Defense Once again, Lamar Smith looked tentative and slow. He only gained 37 yards on 17 carries (2.2 ypc) although he did score. Travis Minor, on the other hand, looked explosive and gained 38 yards on 8 carries (4.8 ypc) The fact that Miami won the game probably keeps Smith in the #1 slot but you have to wonder how Minor would do with a bigger role. Miami's had to shuffle the Offensive Line due to injuries, something it did not have to do last season. Denver is ranked # 6 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks so this won't be a cakewalk. They rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Defensive Slam Dunks: These games feature a very tough Defense posing major problems for the Offense. Dallas' Emmitt Smith / Troy Hambrick vs Washington Defense It's sad to see but Emmitt Smith is probably not the best RB on the roster anymore. Especially not from a Fantasy Football angle. Troy Hambrick merely put up 17 yards on 5 carries (3.4 ypc) Sunday but he did score twice. Smith, on the other hand, managed just 9 yards on 9 carries (you do your own ypc here...). Clearly, there are ill feelings between Smith and management as he's publicly questioning their desire to win as they evaluate talent for next year. I'm sure he's a little more sensitive as the primary talent they seem to be evaluating is the guy who'll take his job. This week, the Cowboys face a rejuvenated Redskin team and a tough defense. They rank # 5 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. Detroit's James Stewart vs Chicago Defense James Stewart roared back with a vengeance last Thursday rolling up 102 yards on 14 carries (7.3 ypc) He looked strong and quick. Corey Schlesinger was still in the picture with 5 rushes for 39 yards (7.8 ypc) and 6 receptions for 41 yards. Both should have trouble though this week against an excellent Bears team ranked # 3 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks. For the year, they rank # 4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Minnesota's Michael Bennett vs Pittsburgh Defense Bennett is slowly climbing his way out of the Super Bust spotlight. (Helps to have Randy Moss on the field at the same time to deflect some attention...) He rushed 12 times for 75 yards (6.2 ypc) and definitely showed flashes. He's a threat anytime he touches the ball. He also caught a pass. This week, he faces a very tough defense with Pittsburgh though. The Steelers rank # 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 1 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so you have to view this as a tough matchup. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups. Passing Matchups to follow. Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Bryant Analytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1999-2001 To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: cheatsheets-unsubscribe@egroups.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|