|
|
Enron Mail |
Hi Folks,
Here's how I see the Passing Game Matchups this week. PLEASE NOTE: See the cheatsheets online at www.footballguys.com (posted soon) for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. I always receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense. Just because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. Peyton Manning may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Kurt Warner or Daunte Culpepper, Manning's your guy no matter who he's lining up against. The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between players. Note: I've used the player stats sorted by performance over the last four weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software. http://www.fflm.com/ for more info. The points scored by position data is from ESPN.com. Let's get to it. Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Passing Game Matchups to Avoid and Exploit Locks: These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the Offense. Green Bay Passing Game vs Jacksonville Defense Start Brett Favre. It's that simple. Antonio Freeman continues to look good and deserves a start in most leagues. Bill Schroeder was pretty quiet last week but don't look for that to last. Jacksonville ranks # 28 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and this should be a nice matchup for Favre and Company. Oakland Passing Game vs Arizona Defense Rich Gannon continues to prove he's one of the better QBs in Football. With 221 yards and 3 TDs Sunday, he looked totally in control of his offense. Of course, it helps when Tim Brown and Jerry Rice are on the receiving end of your throws. Both those guys look as good as ever. Arizona ranks # 31 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so this is clearly a mismatch. San Diego Passing Game vs Seattle Defense That Flutie Magic was fading a little but he looked strong last week with 308 yards and 2 TDs. TE Freddie Jones and WR Tim Dwight could make it back this week to pair with Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway. The Chargers are getting stronger while the Seahawks were dealt a serious blow Tuesday with CB Shawn Springs suspended for 4 games due to failing a steroid test. This should really open the passing offense. LaDainian Tomlinson was a huge factor as well Sunday in the passing game with 13 receptions. The Seahawks rank # 25 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Prime Matchups: These games feature Defenses that should have trouble stopping the Offense. Buffalo Passing Game vs San Francisco Defense Alex Van Pelt continues to justify my Rob Johnson bashing. There is no way Van Pelt should see the bench once Johnson is healthy. In the "squeaky wheel gets the grease" department, Eric Moulds complained pretty loudly last week he wasn't seeing enough passes thrown his way. Van Pelt obliged and Moulds delivered in a big way including an incredible one handed circus catch. FB Larry Centers is seeing tons of passes as well. San Francisco is ranked # 26 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but their secondary seems to be improving. For the year, they rank # 20 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Chicago Passing Game vs Detroit Defense Jim Miller's 97 yard performance Sunday against the Viking defense probably didn't carry many teams to victory. This Bear team is looking more and more like the 2000 Ravens to me with an adequate QB, powerful rushing, and great defense. If Miller is your guy, you may have to accept these up and down games. Marty Booker was a non factor after his great week 10 performance. Dez White saw twice as many passes thrown his way than did Booker. Detroit ranks # 29 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so that's a positive. Cleveland Passing Game vs Tennessee Defense Tim Couch put up another Couch-like game with 189 yards and 1 TD. The ultra reliable Kevin Johnson caught another TD and looks to be an every week starter. Quincy Morgan did see more work than usual but KJ is still the primary guy by a good bit. The Titans rank # 21 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. For the year, they rank # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so this might be a good spot for him. Detroit Passing Game vs Chicago Defense Even with Mike McMahon providing 4th Quarter excitement, Charlie Batch is still the starter. For how long is anyone's guess and you'd have to think there's even a danger that he could be pulled for McMahon if Batch falters. Good luck if you can figure out anything the Lion management comes up with. Johnnie Morton is the WR of choice and he's pretty much it. Cory Schlesinger is still seeing plenty of passes thrown his way if you're really ready to reach. The Bears rank # 30 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but they did shut down the Viking's passing attack last week. Jacksonville Passing Game vs Green Bay Defense Mark Brunell is still hampered by the Quad injury and is no lock to play this week. If he can't go, WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell will be downgraded. Much has been made of the Jimmy Smith troubles. Assuming Brunell can play, I wouldn't be surprised to see Smith blow up with a monster game. Just a hunch. Green Bay isn't anything special on defense ranking # 22 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. They are tougher for the year ranking # 9 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. New York Jets Passing Game vs New England Defense Vinny Testeverde should be rested but you have to wonder how he'll fare against Bill Belichick and New England. Wayne Chrebet and Laveranues Coles will be aided by the speedy play of Santana Moss. Moss is almost a whole year behind the other rookies though so don't look for too much from him. New England ranks # 27 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks although Belichick has been known to have a few wrinkles up his sleeve. For the year, they rank # 21 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Seattle Passing Game vs San Diego Defense Hasselbeck didn't throw any interceptions Sunday. But he only threw for 162 yards. That won't get it done in Holmgren's offense. Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson were pretty active but it was RB Shaun Alexander who carried the receiving load. I'd look for that to continue as Seattle sticks with the conservative game plan. The Chargers rank # 24 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so it's not like they're dominating people. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Even Matchups: These games feature no real advantage either way Baltimore Passing Game vs Indianapolis Defense Elvis Grbac fought back nicely last week with 259 yards and 1 TD / 1 Interception. The TD was huge as he rallied the team from behind. I'm not a Shannon Sharpe fan but you have to give the guy his due - he moaned and pointed fingers last week but when the game was on the line, he delivered. Travis Taylor and Qadry Ismail are decent plays but inconsistent. Indy has struggled lately. They rank # 14 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Carolina Passing Game vs New Orleans Defense Chris Weinke finally scored a TD. So what if it was rushing the ball. The Panthers continued to look bad last week. Weinke threw for 171 yards, 0 TDs and 2 Interceptions. Wesley Walls was a non factor which is hard to understand. WR Muhsin Muhammad missed last week's game and his return for this week is still in limbo. The Saints rank # 23 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and # 23 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so the matchup isn't awful. I just have very little faith in the Panthers right now. Indianapolis Passing Game vs Baltimore Defense Peyton Manning is clearly pressing as he tries to carry the load of this team. He threw 4 Interceptions last week and three looked to be his fault. On the flip side, he did throw for 370 yards with a TD so it wasn't all bad. This Colt team looks like it could be playing catchup from here on out so you have to like Manning's chances. He's battled the trouble with Interceptions this season and I wouldn't be too worried. Marvin Harrison and Terrence Wilkins were the primary targets. After a couple of excellent games, TE Marcus Pollard now is catching fewer balls than Ken Dilger. The Ravens rank # 16 in Passing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. Miami Passing Game vs Denver Defense Jay Fiedler's up and down season continued last week as he threw for 262 yards and 3 TDs leading the Dolphins back to victory. We've been hyping rookie WR Chris Chambers since June and he delivered in a big way with 2 big TDs. As we head into week 12, it's pretty clear that many of these "rookies" aren't really rookies anymore. Oronde Gadsden was extremely active as well with 118 yards. They'll face Denver this week that ranks # 7 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. For the year, they rank # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. New Orleans Passing Game vs Carolina Defense Aaron Brooks continues to look solid. He threw for 307 yards last week with a TD plus he ran for 65 yards. Joe Horn and Willie Jackson gather most of the passes while TE Boo Williams is not a bad choice if you need a TE as he's seeing lots of balls thrown his way. Carolina ranks # 17 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Although they rank # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Minnesota Defense Kordell Stewart with 254 yards and 2 passing TDs against the Titans? Believe it. Plus another TD rushing. He's looking good and has the one thing he desperately needed - confidence. Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress both looked strong although Ward is the only one I really trust there. The OL is banged up but still I like Stewart's chances. Minnesota ranks # 15 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. St. Louis Passing Game vs Atlanta Defense Yes, Kurt Warner looked human Monday night. Even with his "bad" game, he threw for 291 yards and a TD. He'll be fine, as will all the Rams. Torry Holt was huge and Isaac Bruce was a big part of the offense. Atlanta ranks # 10 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but I'd be hard pressed to have any of the Rams key players on my bench. Tennessee Passing Game vs Cleveland Defense Steve McNair with 37 pass attempts for 334 yards and 2 TDs. Plus another rushing TD. That's how whacked this season is. He looked pretty good doing it too. WRs Derrick Mason and Kevin Dyson with TE Frank Wycheck handle the receiving. All are decent options assuming McNair keeps going to the air so often. Cleveland ranks # 18 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. However, for the year they rank # 2 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Downside Matchups: These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble for the Offense. Arizona Passing Game vs Oakland Defense Jake Plummer put up decent numbers last week with 241 yards, 1 TD and 2 Interceptions. With Frank Sanders nursing bad hamstrings, it's evident that WR David Boston is the focus. And he's been unstoppable. He had 6 receptions for 121 yards and a TD last week. The Raiders are ranked # 9 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so this won't be easy. For the year, they rank # 10 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Denver Passing Game vs Miami Defense With Rod Smith hobbled on both ankles now, Brian Griese is looking very ordinary. He had 171 yards and 1 TD last week. Smith has injured his other ankle. He clearly was limited last week even though he played through it. TEs Desmond Clark and Dwayne Carswell are probably his next best targets. Miami hopes to have cornerback Sam Madison back this week which would be a huge boost. The Dolphins are ranked # 13 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. For the year, they're ranked # 14 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Kansas City Passing Game vs Philadelphia Defense Trent Green didn't throw a TD but he did rack up 256 yards and looked as good as he has all season. TE Tony Gonzalez was active as always but most importantly, WR Derrick Alexander seemed to be healthy. That's huge. This week, they face a Philadelphia team that ranks # 8 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. For the year, they rank # 1 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. They have 14 sacks over the last 4 games so they clearly can pressure the passer. It'll be a great test for Green. Minnesota Passing Game vs Pittsburgh Defense Chicago has one of the weakest pass defenses in the league yet they shut down the Viking passing game last week. You figure it out. Culpepper, Moss and Carter are all too valuable to sit as they could go off at any time. But they certainly are frustrating. My friend (and local Vikings Expert) Bill Davies has a theory that Moss was serving a secret one game suspension during the Bears game... On a positive note, TE Byron Chamberlain looked to be very much involved in the offense again. This week, it's a tough matchup with Pittsburgh that ranks # 11 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. The Steelers are # 2 against the run so you have to think the Vikings will be throwing. Philadelphia Passing Game vs Kansas City Defense Donovan McNabb looked awful again throwing for only 92 yards. It seems to me he's trying to prove his ability to stay in the pocket at any cost. He's much better when he's mobile. James Thrash and Todd Pinkston both struggled with McNabb. TE Chad Lewis had several passes thrown his way but couldn't catch any of them. Kansas City is improving on Defense ranking # 12 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. San Francisco Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense Jeff Garcia is a must start in any league. Same with Terrell Owens. Owens has a bad foot and ankle but the early word is that he'll play and be ok. J.J. Stokes continues to improve. He scored a TD Sunday. And TE Eric Johnson is still very involved in the offense and deserves consideration in TE leagues. Buffalo is solid against the pass ranking # 5 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so it won't be a cakewalk. Still though, Garcia and Owens are no brainers. Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Cincinnati Defense Brad Johnson continues to throw more times for fewer yards than anyone I can remember. He had 34 passes for 185 yards Monday night. As always, Keyshawn Johnson was the WR of choice. RBs Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott each saw 5 receptions as well. The Bengals are surprisingly tough against the pass ranking # 6 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Could this be the week Keyshawn Johnson snares that ever elusive first TD of the year?... /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Defensive Slam Dunks: These games feature a very tough Defense posing major problems for the Offense. Atlanta Passing Game vs St. Louis Defense Chris Chandler refused to play along last week throwing for just 132 yards and 0 TDs against a soft Carolina defense. I think he does it just to spite me... FB Bob Christian was the leading receiver. But they're winning. Tony Martin and Shawn Jefferson have to be considered risky. This week, Atlanta faces a much tougher St. Louis defense so that probably means Chandler will do well. The Rams rank # 4 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Overall, I wouldn't put much faith in this Falcon passing game. Cincinnati Passing Game vs Tampa Bay Defense Avoid these guys. Scott Mitchell or Jon Kitna or Akili Smith? I think I'll take Boomer Esiason out of the pressbox... Peter Warrick injured his shoulder so keep an eye on him. No Bengal caught more than 3 passes Sunday which means they're all pretty worthless at this point. Tampa Bay ranks # 20 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks for what it's worth. Dallas Passing Game vs Washington Defense The Ryan Leaf era is over. Hope you made video tapes. Quincy Carter is set to get the start and I have zero faith in him. That means Joey Galloway and Rocket Ismail should struggle as well. With Emmitt Smith crying to the press, this team is in danger of total implosion. Oh yeah, Washington ranks # 1 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. New England Passing Game vs New York Jets Defense Coach Bill Belichick is looking awfully smart starting Tom Brady over Drew Bledsoe as Brady threw for 4 TDs Sunday. Clearly, the guy is for real. Troy Brown is by far his favorite target and the only guy consistent enough to merit serious consideration in most leagues. The Jets are tough against the pass ranking # 2 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so it should be interesting. Very tough matchup but Brady has shown me though that he's a guy you'd do well not to underestimate. If you've been riding him, I'd look real hard at keeping him in the lineup. Washington Passing Game vs Dallas Defense Tony Banks won't remind anyone of Joe Montana but he seems to do just enough to win. He only threw for 96 yards Sunday but he made few mistakes. Rod Gardner and Michael Westbrook continued to play solid football. Dallas ranks # 3 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so it doesn't look like a positive matchup. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Bryant Analytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1999-2001 To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: cheatsheets-unsubscribe@egroups.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|