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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "enerfax1" <enerfax@msn.com<@ENRON X-To: EnerfaxGOLD@yahoogroups.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Lynn_Blair_Jan2002\Blair, Lynn\Deleted Items X-Origin: Blair-L X-FileName: lblair (Non-Privileged).pst Enerfax GOLD NORTH AMERICA'S FREE GAS, OIL, LIQUIDS & DERIVATIVES INFORMATION SOURCE Wednesday, January 2, 2002 No. 453 Visit our website at: http://www.enerfaxgold.com/, PETROLEUM PRICES | Bonny Light | $19.93 | Brent | $19.75 | Butane | $ 0.38 | Fuel Oil #2 | $ 0.56 | Louisiana | $20.75 | Medit. | $19.40 | Propane Non-tet | $ 0.34 | Propane Wet-tet | $ 0.34 | W. Tx Int Cush | $20.43 | W. Tx Sour | $18.83 | Euro in US equiv | 0.8838 ------------------------------------------------------------- Todays Petro Bulletins * Baker Hughes Says Number of Rigs Searching for Oil and Natural Gas in US Rose by 5 to 887 Last Week Compared to 1,114 a Year Ago; Canada Down 94 to 198, Compared to 322 Last Year; Gulf of Mexico Gained 11 to 119 Compared to 145 a Year Ago; Rigs Searching for Oil Down 3 to 137 * Justice Department and EPA Order $340 Million California Superfund Cleanup * Fitch Lowers Ultramar Diamond Shamrock's Ratings to `BBB-' from `BBB'; Affirms Valero Energy * S&P 500 Index Down 12.4% for 2001 * US Economy on Sounder Footing for 2002 * Goldman Sachs Cuts Estimates on Several Energy Stocks; Forest Oil Fiscal Year 2002 Earnings Cut to $0.51 per Share, Down from $0.59 * Iran Seeks to Seal Phases 9 & 10 of South Pars Natural Gas Deals in January * Norway Says It Will Cut 150,000 bpd * Gulf Arabs Appeal for Calm in India and Pakistan ------------------------------------------------------------- NYMEX - NY Harbor Heating Oil Month High Low Last Change Jan 02 0.5900 0.5650 0.5665 +0.0000 Feb 02 0.5960 0.5690 0.5705 +0.0000 Mar 02 0.5925 0.5660 0.5690 +0.0000 Apr 02 0.5810 0.5640 0.5640 +0.0000 May 02 0.5810 0.5580 0.5580 +0.0000 Jun 02 0.5745 0.5590 0.5590 +0.0000 Jul 02 0.5860 0.5640 0.5640 +0.0000 Aug 02 0.5795 0.5705 0.5705 +0.0000 Sep 02 0.5955 0.5785 0.5785 +0.0000 Oct 02 0.5990 0.5870 0.5870 +0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------- NYMEX Crude Oil Futures ($ / Barrel) Month Open High Low Last Change Feb 02 21.22 21.38 20.38 20.41 -0.49 Mar 02 21.53 21.60 20.62 20.66 -0.48 Apr 02 21.64 21.64 20.80 20.80 -0.44 May 02 21.15 21.55 20.91 20.93 -0.41 Jun 02 21.72 21.80 21.00 21.00 -0.40 Jul 02 21.75 21.75 21.01 21.01 -0.40 Aug 02 21.79 21.79 21.04 21.04 -0.40 Sep 02 21.63 21.63 21.07 21.07 -0.40 Oct 02 21.35 21.35 21.10 21.10 -0.73 Nov 02 00.00 00.00 00.00 21.13 -0.73 ------------------------------------------------------------- Crude Oil Futures Slide Despite OPEC Cut Crude oil futures for February delivery on the NYMEX lost $0.49 to $20.41 per barrel on Friday, despite OPEC's official announcement of a 1.5 million bpd cut in production after other producers agreed to slice 462,500 bpd from their combined output. Crude oil prices rose to $21.38 per barrel but then slumped after OPEC's president said the cartel would be happy with anything above $20 per barrel for Brent crude. However many doubt not only the cartels ability, but the strength of commitment by non-members to stick to their lower production quotas. The OPEC countries with quotas pumped 600,000 over their limits in November. But Nigeria was responsible for half of the cheating, producing 300,000 barrels over its quota. Nigeria's OPEC representative is slated to become the cartel's new president on January 1st, effectively putting pressure on the country to adhere to its limits. Some positive news for the market was found as consumer confidence posted its biggest gain in almost 4 years, home sales climbed and unemployment rates stabilized. Heating oil futures for January delivery on the NYMEX declined $0.0015 to $0.5665 per gallon. January gasoline futures on the NYMEX fell $0.0071 to $0.5856 per gallon. In London, Brent crude oil futures for February delivery on the IPE were down $0.04 to $20.30 per barrel. ------------------------------------------------------------- Power Traders If you like tools, wouldn't it be nice to have one that makes you money? --Profit from Time2Trade(tm) Power Analysts If you like detail, wouldn't it be great to have it all? --AcuPower - Now with Trader & Analyst Consoles For a free trial go to http://www.capacitymap.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------- NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures 12 Month Strip 2.9464 +0.1528 18 Month Strip 3.0296 +0.1073 | Month | High | Low | Close | Change | | FEB | 2.780 | 2.680 | 2.774 | +0.155 | | MAR | 2.755 | 2.695 | 2.746 | +0.116 | | APR | 2.730 | 2.670 | 2.724 | +0.094 | | MAY | 2.780 | 2.700 | 2.769 | +0.088 | | JUN | 2.830 | 2.765 | 2.824 | +0.084 | | JUL | 2.875 | 2.820 | 2.870 | +0.082 | | AUG | 2.916 | 2.880 | 2.916 | +0.083 | | SEP | 2.930 | 2.919 | 2.919 | +0.076 | | OCT | 2.950 | 2.930 | 2.947 | +0.069 | | NOV | 3.140 | 3.120 | 3.135 | +0.067 | | DEC | 3.350 | 3.310 | 3.323 | +0.065 | | JAN | 3.419 | 3.400 | 3.410 | +0.062 | ------------------------------------------------------------- Refining Margins Forecast to Shrink in 2002 Oil refiners around the world will likely experience shrinking profit margins in 2002 as a global economic slump has sharply lowered demand. The US, Asia and Northwest Europe all have a hefty oversupply of oil inventories. Refinery runs can be expected to stay 10% - 50% below capacity in Asia. Although the percentage may not be as quite as dismal in Europe and the many still expect lower refinery profits for early 2002 and possibly for most of the year on both continents. Asia's margins were mostly negative this year while US margins hit $6- $9 per barrel early in 2001 but fell to $3 - $4 per barrel later in the year. European margins were mostly unchanged at an average of about $2.00 per barrel. In Northwest Europe, refiners' profits depend on how US gasoline prices fare, as a large portion of Europe's surplus gasoline is exported across the Atlantic. Northwest European refiners have cut up to 20% of runs in the last month. On average for 2001, margins for Northwest Europe refineries running Brent crude are estimated to be less than $2.00 per barrel, below the $3.00 average for 2000, but well above the $1.20 per barrel Northwest European margins of 1999. ------------------------------------------------------------- Energy Releases Opt in Email has 9 times the response of regular mail and costs less than the postage. Have your press or news releases sent to over 50,000 energy professionals. For More Information Write Energyreleases@yahoo.com ------------------------------------------------------------- Oilfield Services Most Volatile Stocks in Energy Sector Oilfield service stocks, which often climb or fall by 5% or more one day, then swing in the other direction the next day, are the most volatile group within the energy sector. Energy stocks are among the most unpredictable in the US stock market, shifting along with oil and natural gas prices that can soar or sink with a sudden change in the weather. In the category of energy stocks, oilfield services can be the most unstable because their earnings are tied to the ups and downs of drilling activity. When companies lower their drilling activity, equipment and service companies do not get hired but still have many fixed costs. The upstream oil and natural gas exploration and production business is the next most volatile sector of the energy industry, with integrated oil companies being the most stable because their refining and marketing operations can counteract their upstream business. In 1998 oil prices dropped from $17.60 to about $12 and the Philadelphia stock exchange's oil service index fell 55% while the S&P oil and gas exploration and production index tumbled 39%. The S&P index of integrated oil companies climbed 6% that year. The next year, oil prices rebounded to $25.60 per barrel and oil service stocks jumped by 67%, the upstream sector rose 17% and integrated oils increased 15%. Last year, contrary to the law of averages, natural gas prices sky-rocketed to $9.80 per Mcf and upstream endeavors gained 57% while oil services rose 45% and integrated oils climbed 6%. In a stock rating system, values above 1 indicate greater risk for volatility, values below 1 show lower than average volatility. Several oil field service companies have ratings as high as 1.7, while ExxonMobil is rated 0.4. Some analysts say that investors could see a potential upside next year by moving away from the relative safety of the major integrated oil companies towards more volatile energy stocks. ------------------------------------------------------------- GET REAL about energy risk management with KWI In today's fast moving energy markets you need to be able to manage risk in real time. That means knowing before you hit a risk problem, not afterwards when it may be too late to prevent big losses spreading right through your enterprise. With kW3000(tm), our multi-commodity, integrated front to back office software, you can monitor your Profit At Risk(tm), counterparty risk and mark-to-market all in real time. Keep alert to risk. Do it in real time. Call KWI -http://www.kwi.com/ Americas: +1-281-681-3301 / Europe: +44 (0) 20-7386-2700 / Asia Pacific: +61(0) 2-9976-6111 ------------------------------------------------------------- R. W. Beck is an engineering and management consulting firm serving utilities, developers, financiers and governments worldwide. Founded in 1942, we help our clients face energy market challenges by providing: Portfolio Analysis to improve diversification and risk-adjusted performance of energy assets. Risk Control services to help reduce the probability of losses. Systems and Facilities services to identify, design and implement effective risk management systems. Training to improve your ability to identify and manage tactical and strategic risks. Please visit our web site at http://www.rwbeck.com. ------------------------------------------------------------ Judge Recuses Himself in Unocal Patent Case Unocal has said that a US District Court Judge recused himself from the case involving infringement on the its '393 gasoline patent due to his discovery that he had a financial interest in one of the parties involved. The case will be returned for reassignment. In October, the judge granted the company's motion for summary judgment requesting an accounting of infringement of its '393 cleaner burning gasoline patent by 5 refiners. However, a written judgment had not been issued. Further proceedings in the case will now be considered by the new judge. The defendants in the case are Atlantic Richfield, Chevron, Texaco, Exxon, Mobil and Shell. In 1997, a jury found the Unocal patent valid and that the defendants had infringed upon it in their refining processes. The jury awarded damages of $0.0575 per infringing gallon. Unocal received a payment of $69 million plus accrued interest and some attorneys' fees in June 2000 for infringement from March through July, 1996. About 29% of the RFG gasoline manufactured by the defendants during that period infringed on the '393 patent. The jury decision was upheld by an Appeals Court in May 2000. In February of 2001, the Supreme Court declined to hear the case. License agreements have been signed with 8 companies for the 5 patents that Unocal holds for cleaner burning gasoline compositions. Earlier this year, Unocal introduced a uniform licensing program that specifies a range of between $0.12 and $0.34 per gallon for volumes that fall under the Unocal patents. The rate per gallon is reduced as more utilization occurs. ------------------------------------------------------------ IPE-Brent Crude futures (US $/barrel) Month First High Low Sett Chg FEB 02 20.70 20.90 20.25 20.30 -0.04 MAR 02 20.25 20.48 19.85 19.89 -0.12 APR 02 20.28 20.43 19.86 19.88 -0.13 MAY 02 20.36 20.41 19.92 19.92 -0.14 JUN 02 20.38 20.58 20.01 20.01 -0.15 JUL 02 20.44 20.44 20.08 20.08 -0.18 AUG 02 20.13 20.13 20.13 20.13 -0.19 SEP 02 20.64 20.65 20.18 20.18 -0.20 OCT 02 20.23 20.23 20.23 20.23 -0.21 NOV 02 20.28 20.28 20.28 20.28 -0.20 ------------------------------------------------------------- NYMEX-Mont Belvieu Propane Gas Futures($ / Gallon) Month High Low Last Change JAN 02 0.3400 0.3400 0.3400 +0.0000 FEB 02 0.3420 0.3420 0.3420 +0.0000 MAR 02 0.3400 0.3400 0.3400 +0.0000 APR 02 0.3390 0.3390 0.3390 +0.0000 MAY 02 0.3415 0.3415 0.3415 +0.0000 JUN 02 0.3425 0.3425 0.3425 +0.0000 JUL 02 0.3485 0.3485 0.3485 +0.0000 AUG 02 0.3560 0.3560 0.3560 +0.0000 SEP 02 0.3660 0.3660 0.3660 +0.0000 OCT 02 0.3660 0.3660 0.3660 +0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------- ENERGY JOB LISTINGS Whether you are actively looking for a job, or want to explore opportunities in the energy industry, go to http://www.energyjobs.com. At Energyjobs.com, your job hunting is made easy, convenient and confidential. Conduct your own search or participate in our Job Match feature, which accurately matches your qualifications, experience and requirements to any new job that appears, and then sends you an e-mail notification! Best of all, membership < is FREE. To register and become a member, simply go to http://www.energyjobs.com/jobseeker_registration_frm.html ------------------------------------------------------------- IPE - ARA Gas Oil Futures $ / Tonne Month High Low Sett Change JAN 02 177.00 169.00 169.50 - 4.50 FEB 02 178.00 172.25 172.25 - 3.00 MAR 02 178.25 172.75 172.75 - 3.00 APR 02 178.00 173.50 173.50 - 2.75 MAY 02 175.00 174.00 174.00 - 3.00 JUN 02 179.75 175.00 175.00 - 3.25 JUL 02 176.50 176.50 176.50 - 3.25 AUG 02 178.00 178.00 178.00 - 3.25 SEP 02 184.00 179.75 179.75 - 3.25 OCT 02 181.50 181.50 181.50 - 3.25 ------------------------------------------------------------- NY HARBOR UNLEADED GAS FUTURES Month High Low Last Change Jan 02 0.6070 0.5770 0.5856 +0.0000 Feb 02 0.6150 0.5830 0.5883 +0.0000 Mar 02 0.6220 0.5960 0.5983 +0.0000 Apr 02 0.6820 0.6588 0.6588 +0.0000 May 02 0.6680 0.6628 0.6628 +0.0000 Jun 02 0.6670 0.6613 0.6613 +0.0000 Jul 02 0.6745 0.6545 0.6545 +0.0000 Aug 02 0.6645 0.6450 0.6450 +0.0000 Sep 02 0.6525 0.6305 0.6305 +0.0000 Oct 02 0.6140 0.6065 0.6065 +0.0000 -------------------------------------------------------------- Get familiar with oil-gasoline.com, inc. This web site ranks among the favorite sites for petroleum company executives. In 2002, the corporation plans to run an interactive crude oil model to provide the latest status of world-wide supply and demand. You will want to bookmark this one! ------------------------------------------------------------- ExxonMobil May Withdraw Bid for China Pipeline Project ExxonMobil is considering pulling out of talks to build a $5 billion natural gas pipeline in China. The withdrawal would leave Royal Dutch/Shell Group as the only major foreign oil company taking part in the project and may affect its funding. The 4,000-kilometer pipeline, China's longest, is part of a $14 billion plan to transport reserves in the northwestern province of Xinjiang to Shanghai. ------------------------------------------------------------- ENERGY. @ENERGY(r), FEA's Complete Suite of Energy Products, BUILT FOR THE FUTURE. *Manage all your energy risks. *Build and Price deals. *Value physical assets (generation, storage, etc.) *Report and reduce your energy risks FEA FINANCIAL ENGINEERING ASSOCIATES Inc. http://www.fea.com/?cId=14 main phone number: 1 510-548-6200 email address: info@fea.com ------------------------------------------------------------- PHYSICAL GAS PRICES Gulf/Eastern Region | Agua Dulce | 2.44 | | ANR SE | 2.59 | | Carthage TG | 2.53 | | Chicago Citygate | 2.70 | | Columbia Gulf Onshore | 2.67 | | Dominion South Point | 2.80 | | Henry Hub | 2.64 | | Houston Ship Channel | 2.59 | | Katy Hub | 2.53 | | NGPL LA Pool | 2.57 | | NGPL - Midcontinent | 2.51 | | NGPL STX | 2.49 | | NGPL TX/OK | 2.53 | | NNG Demarc. | 2.58 | | Niagara | 2.89 | | Sonat Tier 1 | 2.60 | | TCO IPP Pool | 2.76 | | Tetco ELa | 2.57 | | Tetco M-3 | 3.20 | | Tetco STX | 2.44 | | TGP Zone 0 | 2.48 | | TGP Zone 1 (500 Leg) | 2.59 | | TGT Zone SL | 2.64 | | New York Citygate | 3.46 | | Transco Station 65 | 2.66 | | Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 3.47 | | Trunk ELa | 2.59 | | Western Region | California Border | 2.47 | | El Paso Keystone | 2.34 | | El Paso San Juan-Blanco | 2.32 | | Waha Hub | 2.46 | | Canadian/Rockies Region | Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 3.57 | | Dawn Hub/Union | 2.81 | | Northwest Stanfield | 2.37 | | Wyoming Pool | 2.24 | | Opal/Kern River | 2.26 | | PGT-Malin | 2.42 | | Sumas | 2.34 | Flow Dates 12/29-31 ------------------------------------------------------------- Judge Recuses Himself in Unocal Patent Case Unocal has said that a US District Court Judge recused himself from the case involving infringement on the its '393 gasoline patent due to his discovery that he had a financial interest in one of the parties involved. The case will be returned for reassignment. In October, the judge granted the company's motion for summary judgment requesting an accounting of infringement of its '393 cleaner burning gasoline patent by 5 refiners. However, a written judgment had not been issued. Further proceedings in the case will now be considered by the new judge. The defendants in the case are Atlantic Richfield, Chevron, Texaco, Exxon, Mobil and Shell. In 1997, a jury found the Unocal patent valid and that the defendants had infringed upon it in their refining processes. The jury awarded damages of $0.0575 per infringing gallon. Unocal received a payment of $69 million plus accrued interest and some attorneys' fees in June 2000 for infringement from March through July, 1996. About 29% of the RFG gasoline manufactured by the defendants during that period infringed on the '393 patent. The jury decision was upheld by an Appeals Court in May 2000. In February of 2001, the Supreme Court declined to hear the case. License agreements have been signed with 8 companies for the 5 patents that Unocal holds for cleaner burning gasoline compositions. Earlier this year, Unocal introduced a uniform licensing program that specifies a range of between $0.12 and $0.34 per gallon for volumes that fall under the Unocal patents. The rate per gallon is reduced as more utilization occurs. ------------------------------------------------------------ Energy Seminars, Inc. Announces Key Seminar Offerings for January: Energy Seminars will be going to Florida and Calgary in 2002! Click to www.energyseminars.com to see our 2002 schedule. Register on-line at http://www.energyseminars.com or call Registrar Gina Patrick Phone: 281-362-7979 FAX: 281-296-9922 ------------------------------------------------------------- Oilfield Services Most Volatile Stocks in Energy Sector Oilfield service stocks, which often climb or fall by 5% or more one day, then swing in the other direction the next day, are the most volatile group within the energy sector. Energy stocks are among the most unpredictable in the US stock market, shifting along with oil and natural gas prices that can soar or sink with a sudden change in the weather. In the category of energy stocks, oilfield services can be the most unstable because their earnings are tied to the ups and downs of drilling activity. When companies lower their drilling activity, equipment and service companies do not get hired but still have many fixed costs. The upstream oil and natural gas exploration and production business is the next most volatile sector of the energy industry, with integrated oil companies being the most stable because their refining and marketing operations can counteract their upstream business. In 1998 oil prices dropped from $17.60 to about $12 and the Philadelphia stock exchange's oil service index fell 55% while the S&P oil and gas exploration and production index tumbled 39%. The S&P index of integrated oil companies climbed 6% that year. The next year, oil prices rebounded to $25.60 per barrel and oil service stocks jumped by 67%, the upstream sector rose 17% and integrated oils increased 15%. Last year, contrary to the law of averages, natural gas prices sky-rocketed to $9.80 per Mcf and upstream endeavors gained 57% while oil services rose 45% and integrated oils climbed 6%. In a stock rating system, values above 1 indicate greater risk for volatility, values below 1 show lower than average volatility. Several oil field service companies have ratings as high as 1.7, while ExxonMobil is rated 0.4. Some analysts say that investors could see a potential upside next year by moving away from the relative safety of the major integrated oil companies towards more volatile energy stocks. ------------------------------------------------------------- Energy Sponsor Become the Official Sponsor of the Enerfax Publications. This unique opportunity is limited to one special company or organization. For more information please write sponsor@enerfax.com ------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC January 24, 2002 Spencer Abraham U.S. Secretary of Energy to address energy community on potential security and commerce threats. Also to speak will be key directors from the CIA, SPR, IEA, SPR and more. See complete detail and register today at http://www.wesc.org ------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL SUMMARY The TSE 300 added 24.39 points to 7674.97 The CRB Index lost 0.16 points to 191.91 The US Dollar dropped 0.23 points to 117.26 The Dow advanced 5.68 points to 10136.99 The S&P 500 climbed 3.89 points to 1161.02 The Nasdaq was up 10.84 points to 1987.26 February NYMEX Crude Oil fell 0.49 to 20.41 Canadian-US Exchange rose 0.0021 to 1.595 ------------------------------------------------------------- Please Welcome Our Advertisers by Visiting These Websites! http://www.fea.com/ http://www.kwi.com/ http://www.capacitymap.com/ http://www.energyseminars.com http://www.energyjobs.com Enerfax Gold is the North America's Gas, Oil, Liquids and Derivatives information source. It is sent to you free of charge. Enerfax Gold may be copied and redistributed in its entirety to all interested energy professionals. Please send us the e-mail addresses of other energy professionals that would like to be added to Enerfax Gold's growing distribution list of thousands of energy professionals in the US and Canada at subscribegold@enerfax.com The information contained herein was obtained from sources which Enerfax Gold believes to be reliable, but does not guarantee its accuracy. Your support of our advertisers is greatly appreciated and will keep Enerfax Gold free. Thank you. Your comments are welcome. For information on advertising, please write advertising@enerfax.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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