|
|
Enron Mail |
/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/
Tonight's Update is brought to you by the guys at www.FFChamps.com Have Your Team Analyzed by an Expert Send us your roster, along with a brief explanation of your scoring system, starter requirements and league size and we'll personally evaluate it for you. We'll tell you your strength's and weaknesses. Who to cut, who to trade and who to go after. We'll take all the guesswork out of your next moves. Championships are not won at the draft, they are won in season, by paying careful attention to your roster. We guarantee that we will give you the insight that leaves your roster in better shape then when you start. Click www.ffcpi.com to get the Team Analyzer. These guys are good folks, check 'em out. - Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Hi Folks, Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week. PLEASE NOTE: See the cheatsheet online at www.footballguys.com for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. I always receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense. Just because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. Ahman Green may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Edgerrin James or Marshall Faulk, Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up against. The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between players. Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software. http://www.fflm.com/ for more info. Fantasy Points Allowed by position numbers are from ESPN.com. Let's get to it. Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Locks: These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the Offense. Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs Arizona Defense The bright spot for the Chiefs offense was Holmes last week as he rolled up 150 yards on 20 carries for a 7.5 ypc average plus 2 TDs. Not a bad day against a very good Pittsburgh defense. This week, it'll be considerably easier against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks # 27 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. They make everyone look good and that likely won't change this week. There's also a chance Tony Richardson could play this week St. Louis' Trung Canidate / Marshall Faulk vs New York Jets Defense Faulk owners had quite a scare this week. Over a 24 hour period, his injury status went from 4 weeks to 2 weeks to possibly playing in this week's game. To make matters more frustrating, the Jets are weak defending the run ranking # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They're # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. They did look better last week though but I still think they're very vulnerable. Trung Canidate will likely get the start and he could shine if given the opportunity. That system and surrounding cast is so good I'm not sure I couldn't put decent numbers there. If I had another option outside of Faulk, I'd probably go there as it's very risky to look for anything from him. If I had Canidate, this could be the game to start him. Jacksonville's Stacey Mack / Frank Moreau / Elvis Joseph vs Buffalo Defense Tough call of the week here. With Fred Taylor still out, my guess is it'll be Mack getting the start. Until he fumbles or fails to produce. Both of which have a pretty good chance of happening. Then you'll see Frank Moreau and our guy Elvis Joseph. You may see a good bit of Moreau anyway. The frustrating thing is that the Bills matchup is so attractive. They rank # 30 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. I'd go with Mack if you're in the gambling mood as he just might pay off against that defense. Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Kansas City Defense Check Pittman's status this week as he's dealing with a concussion (that he played through during the game) Early this week, he was still having headaches but I'd be surprised if doesn't get the bulk of the carries. Thomas Jones had only 6 carries for 14 yards last week and I don't see that changing a lot. Pittman ran for 50 yards on 16 carries (3.1 ypc) but the Chicago defense is very tough. This week, he'll face a much softer KC unit that ranks just # 28 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. When it comes to Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs, they rank # 20 for the year. I'm not too discouraged with last week's poor showing since the Chicago D is very tough on the run and I think you may see Pittman perform better this week. Carolina's Tshimanga Biakabutuka / Richard Huntley vs Washington Defense If you've been wondering if you should ever start Biakabutuka, here's your chance. The Redskins rank # 31 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They also are worst in the league in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. On the flip side, Biakabutuka struggled against a tough New Orleans defense last week gaining just 30 yards on 13 carries (2.3 ypc) The biggest stat though was that he did have another fumble. We've seen already that Coach Seifert won't put up with much of that. Bottom line is that it's a great matchup but I seriously wonder about Biakabutuka's ability to capitalize on it. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Prime Matchups: These games feature Defenses that should have trouble stopping the Offense. Tennessee's Eddie George vs Detroit Defense Look for Eddie George to build on his positive performance from last week where her rushed for 85 yards on 29 carries (2.9 ypc) against the Bucs. He'll find the going easier against a Lion defense that ranks # 21 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 25 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. They're improving, but clearly, they haven't been able to stop many people. George isn't his old self but he may be getting there. The improved play of QB Steve McNair was the big news from last week and he needs to keep it rolling to take heat off the running game. Baltimore's Terry Allen / Jason Brookins vs Cleveland Defense Jason Brookins is breathing down his neck but Allen's hanging pretty tough. The veteran shows little signs of wearing down. Against a very good Green Bay defense last week, he ran for 75 yards on 18 carries (4.2 ypc) Brookins totaled 33 yards on 9 carries for 3.7 ypc but here's a very disturbing stat for Allen owners. As you can see from our Red Zone data http://www.footballguys.com/redzone1.htm , Brookins has gradually been seeing more and more Red Zone touches. In week 4, he had 8 rushes in the redzone compared to 2 for Allen. Last week, he had 4 red zone rushes while Terry Allen had zero (Allen did have a pass thrown to him in the Red Zone). The Cleveland Defense is below average ranking # 22 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They're # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Clearly, Brian Billick has confidence in Brookins with the Red Zone touches and that's a trend that's likely to continue. Washington's Stephen Davis vs Carolina Defense If you've been hanging with Stephen Davis all season, you might as well give him another shot here. The Panthers are weak against the rush ranking # 25 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 21 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. The Panthers will be forced to start a banged up Linebacking corps that could be vulnerable. Davis ran well against the Cowboys totally 99 yards on 23 carries (4.3 ypc) but he needs to get in the endzone. He might get that chance against Carolina. New York's Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs Philadelphia Defense This one is tough to call right now. Barber did some running this week and is Probable to play. The game is Monday night though so he's got an extra 30 hours or so to get ready. Dayne looks to be ready to roll here and he could do some damage against an overrated Eagle rush defense. They have the good reputation but in reality, they rank # 24 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so it's no fluke. My best guess on Barber is that he'll play a good bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants look almost back to "normal" with Dayne and Barber. New England's Antowain Smith vs Indianapolis Defense QB Tom Brady is improving every week and that's helping the running game. This week they'll face one of the softer defenses in the league in Indy. The Colts rank # 26 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. Even worse, when it comes to Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs, they rank # 30. Smith will need all the help he can get. Last week, he ran for 36 yards on 15 carries (2.4 ypc) against San Diego. Although the Chargers are tough and he did get a TD. Remember that Indy is the team that got Smith rolling back in week three where he broke out with 94 yards on 22 carries (4.3 ypc) and 2 TDs. He's inconsistent but this is a good matchup for Smith. Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Minnesota Defense The fast track of the Metrodome paired with the Viking defense should make for a nice game from Green. Last week, Green was held to just 54 yards on 20 carries (2.7 ypc). But that was against Baltimore. Against a Viking team that yielded 108 yards to James Stewart last week, I think Green will fare even better. Statistically, the Vikings have been ok ranking # 15 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 15 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. But this team is struggling. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Even Matchups: These games feature no real advantage either way San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Denver Defense LaDainian Tomlinson enters this week as the # 4 RB over the last 3 weeks. He'll be facing a pretty tough Bronco defense ranked # 11 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They're # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Denver is tough between the tackles but Tomlinson has shown he has the speed and skill to break outside when he needs to. San Diego knows Tomlinson is the key to their success and I expect them to lean heavily upon him. New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs Atlanta Defense Williams is playing as well as any RB in the game right now. He's running hard and more importantly, he looks like he's having fun. Don't underestimate that angle for a guy like Ricky Williams. The Falcon defense is decent ranking # 16 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They're a little tougher in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where they rank # 11. I can't see benching him unless you're just totally loaded at RB. Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs New England Defense Play Edgerrin James. You don't need me for that. He rolled up 115 yards on 26 carries (4.5 ypc) against Oakland Sunday night. New England ranks # 19 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Start James. Detroit's James Stewart vs Tennessee Defense James Stewart rolled last week against a weak Viking defense posting 108 yards on just 16 carries (6.1 ypc) This week, he'll face a definitely beatable Tennessee defense that ranks # 18 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They're even more vulnerable if you look at Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where they rank # 27. QB Charlie Batch played a great game last week and he'll go a long ways toward helping Stewart's numbers although this team does seem more interested in throwing the ball than they do in letting Stewart control the ground game. Buffalo's Travis Henry vs Jacksonville Defense Travis Henry's had a week to rest and get's the national stage to prove himself on Thursday night. Jacksonville's defense has been up and down this year. They rank # 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. LB Hardy Nickerson is still Questionable with his neck injury. If he can't go, that'll surely be a plus for Henry. Even without Nickerson, they've been pretty tough only allowing 4 TDs in the last 4 games. I think everyone pretty much agrees Rob Johnson isn't going to carry this team now so look for Coach Gregg Williams to see if Henry can shoulder the load. Keep an eye on his knee situation as he's had a nagging soreness that the docs are diagnosing as tendonitis. The word now though is that he'll be able to play through it. Chicago's James Allen / Anthony Thomas vs Cincinnati Defense Another week where it'll be tough to tell who gets the carries. We keep expecting Thomas to grab more and more time but Allen is hanging on. Last week Allen rushed 18 times for 75 yards (4.2 ypc) plus a TD. Thomas had 11 carries for 58 yards (5.3 ypc) Obviously, both were effective. Allen is still getting the Red Zone Touches though so it seems pretty clear that coach Dick Jauron has faith in him. The Bengals rank # 23 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 14 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. I'd look for a similar distribution of carries between Allen and Thomas this week although I think you'll see more and more of Thomas. It's murky enough right now, that I don't honestly feel real good about either guy. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Downside Matchups: These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble for the Offense. Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Pittsburgh Defense Warrick Dunn made it back onto the field last week when he wasn't expected to. He did score a TD, but overall, he was totally ineffective rushing for 16 yards on 10 carries (1.6 ypc) Mike Alstott was even worse running for 4 yards on 5 carries (0.8 ypc) It's pretty bad when Brad Johnson has the best ypc average on the team...at 2.0 ypc. This week, they face a tougher defense in Pittsburgh. The Steelers rank # 8 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 10 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Tampa Bay Defense Here's a troubling thought about Jerome Bettis for this week that was brought up on our message boards www.footballguystalk.com this week. Remember in week 1 when all the talk was about Bettis being limited in Jacksonville because of his asthma and the Florida heat and humidity? Bettis went on to total 28 yards on 12 carries (2.3 ypc) against Jacksonville. Guess what the weather is predicted to be in Tampa? http://www.footballguys.com/weatherweek6a.htm 84 degrees and humid. It won't help that Tampa has a solid rush defense ranking # 12 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They're stingier with points ranking # 7 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. On the upside, Linebackers Derrick Brooks and Jeff Gooch are probably not 100%. I like Bettis and he's on a roll but this is a tough matchup here. New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs St. Louis Defense Curtis Martin ran exceptionally well against a tough Miami Defense last week posting 120 yards on 22 carries (5.5 ypc) He's by far the focus of that offense. Look for more of the same this week against the Rams. St. Louis is solid against the run ranking # 9 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They seem to give up a lot of points though as they rank # 17 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Look for more Martin to again carry the load. Atlanta's Maurice Smith vs New Orleans Defense Smith struggled last week against a good San Francisco rush defense. He only gained 50 yards on 20 carries (2.5 ypc) Even worse, 24 of those yards came on one carry. That means he had just 26 yards on 19 carries for 1.4 ypc. (Joes Note: I'm not a fan of taking one big play away and looking at the numbers as I think you can really skew the data that way. But, it's also something worth keeping in the back of your mind.) On the plus side, he garnered 20 of the Falcons 24 rushing attempts so he looks to be the man. For an even bigger plus, he scored a rushing TD. This week, he faces a very tough New Orleans defense that ranks # 3 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs for the season. This may not be the best week to start Smith if you've got other options. I want to see how he does against this tough defense and to see if Coach Dan Reeves starts using Bob Christian a little more. Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Chicago Defense Power vs Power. The Bears have been playing excellent run defense behind Brian Urlacher, Keith Traylor and Ted Washington. They rank # 10 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. More impressively, they rank # 5 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs for the year. Dillon will be a great test though as they've not faced a RB of his caliber yet. Last week he rolled for 140 yards on 31 carries (4.5 ypc) and a TD. But the Browns don't bring the same defense that Chicago will. The key will be Jon Kitna and his passing game keeping the defense honest. If the safeties are able to walk towards the line, it might be a long day for Dillon. He's been handled by tough defenses once this year with Baltimore holding him to 57 yards on 18 carries (3.2 ypc) It should be noted though that the Bears are not yet the Ravens on defense and that Dillon did find the endzone in the Baltimore game with a TD reception. Not the best matchup for Dillon but one that will be fun to watch. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Defensive Slam Dunks: These games feature a very tough Defense posing major problems for the Offense. Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter / Duce Staley vs New York Giants Defense Duce Staley will likely make his return back from a shoulder injury this week but it's unclear how much he'll play. Rookie Correll Buckhalter's done a very good job in his absence. But I think it's pretty clear that it's Duce's job when he's healthy. I'm not too excited about either player this week against a Giant defense that is shutting down the running game. They rank # 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. I'd avoid both of these guys this week unless you're really short on options. Minnesota's Doug Chapman / Travis Prentice vs Green Bay Defense Frustrated Michael Bennett owners can at least know for sure how he'll do this week. He won't play. Bennett's nursing a bad ankle and Coach Denny Green's named Doug Chapman the starter. But also look for Travis Prentice to see time as the short yardage / goal line guy. Considering the Vikings already have one of the best goal line "backs" in the league with QB Daunte Culpepper, the situation is even murkier. Throw in the fact that Green Bay plays very solid rush defense and I'm not real excited about any of the Viking RBs. The Packers rank # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks. And they rank # 4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Denver's Mike Anderson vs San Diego Defense Anderson will have his work cut out for him against a tough Charger defense that held New England's Antowain Smith to 36 yards on 15 carries (2.4 ypc) last week. Anderson and the Broncos are a lot better than Smith and the Patriots but still, it won't be easy. San Diego ranks # 4 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 2 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs. Anderson was held in check last week against a good Seattle defense rushing for only 51 yards on 17 carries (3.0 ypc) QB Brian Griese's shoulder is still sore and Anderson will need a healthy Griese to loosen Safety Rodney Harrison who's a run stopper supreme. Terrell Davis has been making a little noise about possibly playing this week but I don't see it. It's about to get murky again though. If you don't feel like dealing with the Shanahan guessing games here soon, you should move Anderson now. Cleveland's James Jackson / Jamel White vs Baltimore Defense Don't go here. Let's say it this way: Last week, James Jackson totaled 22 yards on 14 carries for a whopping 1.6 ypc number. Against Cincinnati. I like the Bengals but they're not Baltimore. Look elsewhere. Baltimore's streak of not allowing a 100 yard rusher will end sometime. It won't be this week though. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups. Passing Matchups to follow. Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Bryant Analytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1999-2001 To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: cheatsheets-unsubscribe@egroups.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|