Enron Mail

From:jcjcal02@aol.com
To:jeff.dasovich@enron.com, jcjcal02@aol.com
Subject:Re: Netscape
Cc:dwindham@uclink4.berkeley.edu, guinney@haas.berkeley.edu, jcja@chevron.com,jjackson@haas.berkeley.edu, mark_guinney@watsonwyatt.com
Bcc:dwindham@uclink4.berkeley.edu, guinney@haas.berkeley.edu, jcja@chevron.com,jjackson@haas.berkeley.edu, mark_guinney@watsonwyatt.com
Date:Sat, 14 Apr 2001 17:16:00 -0700 (PDT)

Jeff,
You're obviously right about discounting cash flow. I was getting a little
lazy. The capital exp in Exhibit 3 in the book is close to what you have in
the model. I agree about your working capital assumption. I guess I'm not
clear on your conclusion. The $3+ you calculated a share is based on 16%
growth. We are being asked to calculate what growth justifies $28/share. I
calculate 31% growth for $14/share and about 40% growth for $28 per share.
Reality is their immediate growth is probably going to be higher than both
numbers but would not be sustainable for 10 years.

Anyway while we bat this around, I've begun putting some bullshit into the
memo. I guess I vote we double the price. The other IPO in Exhibit 6
(especially Uunet) demonstrate how hot the high tech IPO market is. IPOs are
a lot about emotion and maybe a little about cash flow. What's the down side
if the offering doesn't sell well. Netscape has a very hot business they
should extract a high price for the potential gold mind they offer (this is
my 1999 thinking, not 2000). Comments?

Jimmy