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Here are the components as I see them:
1999 numbers for C&I are fine; I'd do 10%, 15%, 20% reductions. Assume C&I takes its proportionate share of the DWR's net short (i.e., if C&I is 2/3 of load, then 2/3 of CDW purchases should go to C&I) You can use the average price used in the DWR presentation to Legislators to the $ amount. The copy I've got sez that the average price for the first 5 years is $79/MWH. That seems like the # we ought to use. Now the hard part. The state reportedly sez that they aren't buying the entire net short---only that part that they feel like covering. So how do we factor that in? Not sure that we can get detailed data (but check with Alan Comnes, who might be able to provide ISO real time prices (which is where the net short (of the net short) is being filled ISO---the ISO then sends that bill to PG&E. An easier way might be to use PG&E's numbers. In their bankruptcy announcement, PG&E sez that it's been costing them $300MM per month ($300MM * 0.67 * 0.10 =~$20MM). We could scale this number up to account for summer purchases. Alternatively, we could use ENA's forward curve. This is very quick and dirty (apologies) and I may have gotten something very wrong. If I've got any fatal flaws in the thinking (which happens often), please point them out. And if you have any questions, don't hesitate. Best, Jeff Jennifer Thome 04/10/2001 12:17 PM To: Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron@Enron cc: Robert.Neustaedter@enron.com Subject: Savings for CWDR Jeff: Robert and I wanted to follow up with you on your question about savings that could be realized if 10% of lg. C&Is found other energy suppliers. Please provide a bit more info. about what you are interested in: *Would it be a subtraction of 10% of C&I load or customers? *How precise do we need to be, i.e., can I estimate figures based on 1999 load? It is probably best to reply via e-mail. Thanks, Jennifer
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