Enron Mail

From:miyung.buster@enron.com
To:ann.schmidt@enron.com, bryan.seyfried@enron.com, elizabeth.linnell@enron.com,filuntz@aol.com, james.steffes@enron.com, janet.butler@enron.com, jeannie.mandelker@enron.com, jeff.dasovich@enron.com, joe.hartsoe@enron.com, john.neslage@enron.com, john.
Subject:Energy Issues
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Wed, 20 Jun 2001 04:02:00 -0700 (PDT)

Please see the following articles:

Sac Bee, Wed, 6/20: Weather an early test for fee caps:=20
Any severe jump in prices will likely be curbed, experts say

Sac Bee, Wed, 6/20: State to borrow up to $5 billion to buy energy

Sac Bee, Wed, 6/20: Dan Walters: Once burned, lawmakers are very
wary of Davis-Edison agreement

SD Union, Wed, 6/20: Senate Democrats lay back to see if FERC action=20
provides rate relief=20

SD Union, Wed, 6/20: House panel erases Bush energy cuts

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: Davis, Regulators Face Off at Hearing

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: Energy on Agenda, but Issue Is Blame

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: Blackout Forecasts' Dark Side

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: FERC Move Short-Circuits for Hard Price Caps

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: Plan Won't Raise Rates, Davis Says

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: State to Pay Electric Bill With Loan, Not Taxes

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: Edison Unveils Blackout Warning Plan

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: State Joins Challenge to Bush on Air-Conditioner=20
Standards

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: New Price Caps Not a Deterrent, Power Firms Say

LA Times, Wed, 6/20: The FERC's Action Is Good, Bad, Ugly (Commentary)

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: Davis OKs stopgap loan=20
CRISIS POWERS: Action sidesteps Legislature

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: Experts say state must seize the day=20
ANALYSIS: Price caps set stage for future

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: California's energy crisis hits Northwest like a tidal=
=20
wave

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: Davis demands nearly $9 billion for electricity=20
overcharges

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: Fed price caps placate Demos=20
But Feinstein's bill to regulate energy producers was more strict

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: Potrero Hill power plant hit by 2 lawsuits=20
Neighbors, city ask court to cut back hours of operation

SF Chron, Wed, 6/20: Washington wakes up

Mercury News, Wed, 6/20: Feinstein halts electricity price caps bill=20

Mercury News, 6/20: FERC's fixes have fallen short (Commentary)

OC Register, Wed, 6/20: Easing the crunch on costs of power (Commentary)

Individual.com (Bridgenews), Wed, 6/20: [B] POWER UPDATE/ US Senate panel
to hold off vote on Calif. cap bill=20

Individual.com (Bridgenews), Wed, 6/20: [B] FERC order seen having little=
=20
effect
on US generator profits

Individual.com (PRnewswire), Wed, 6/20: SCE Unveils Rotating Blackout Web S=
ite
and Public Notification Plan=20

Individual.com (AP), Wed, 6/20: Edison CEO/ Ruling Hasn't Helped

NY Times, Wed, 6/20: At Last, Action on California (Editorial)

NY Times, Wed, 6/20: Regulators' Order Could Bring Broad California Power=
=20
Accord

Wash. Post, Wed, 6/20: Davis Finds Hope in Calif. Power Crunch

NY Times, Wed, 6/20: The Lesson of When to Give Aid to Free Markets

---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
---
-------------------------------

Weather an early test for fee caps: Any severe jump in prices will likely b=
e=20
curbed, experts say.
By Dale Kasler
Bee Staff Writer
(Published June 20, 2001)=20
California electricity prices have shot back up recently, potentially posin=
g=20
an early test of a new federal price-control plan that takes effect today.=
=20
Warm weather has sent wholesale prices doubling this week, partially=20
reversing a dramatic slide that had some state officials believing they'd=
=20
tamed the wildly unpredictable California electricity market.=20
The rebound in prices "would be expected," said Arthur O'Donnell, editor of=
=20
the California Energy Markets newsletter. "It's 110 degrees in Phoenix, and=
=20
it's 100 degrees (in Sacramento) and points in between."=20
Prices this week moved back above $100 a megawatt hour, about double what=
=20
they were last week -- although well below the roughly $300 suppliers were=
=20
charging California in mid-May. Prices showed signs of stabilizing Tuesday,=
=20
analysts said.=20
Experts said the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's new price-mitigatio=
n=20
plan is likely to curb the most severe price spikes. "This will eliminate t=
he=20
astronomical prices," said Severin Borenstein, director of the University o=
f=20
California Energy Institute.=20
But the plan probably won't bring California a cascade of cheap power,=20
either.=20
Prices likely will bump up constantly against FERC's new price caps, which=
=20
will fluctuate from time to time, and they're not likely to go much below t=
he=20
caps unless there's a significant glut of energy, said Peter Stiffler of th=
e=20
energy consulting firm Economic Insight Inc.=20
"Traders will always trade in at the price ceiling," Stiffler said. "They'r=
e=20
going to offer power at the highest price they can."=20
The fluctuating FERC caps are tied to the production costs of the=20
least-efficient, most-expensive generating plant operating in California wh=
en=20
supplies are tight and an official "power alert" is declared by the state's=
=20
Independent System Operator, which runs most of the power grid. When there=
=20
isn't a power alert, prices can't exceed 85 percent of the price establishe=
d=20
during the most recent alert.=20
FERC said the system would begin today with a cap of $108.49 a megawatt hou=
r=20
but would rise to $127.64 if a power alert is declared.=20
But the cap can fluctuate significantly. Under the old FERC plan, the price=
=20
cap in May was set at $267 a megawatt hour. The old plan was similar to the=
=20
new system but applied only to California and only kicked in during power=
=20
alerts.=20
With the caps flexible, generators could have incentives to withhold power =
at=20
some plants in order to raise the caps, said Stanford University economist=
=20
Frank Wolak.=20
The FERC plan "still doesn't solve the problem of withholding," said Wolak,=
=20
chairman of the ISO's market surveillance committee.=20
Wolak also said he's afraid FERC will let power generators exaggerate their=
=20
costs in order to bump up the caps.=20
"The good news is, they seem to be more serious," Wolak said of the=20
oft-criticized commissioners. "But given how many times we've been taken in=
,=20
I'm wary."=20
In addition, generators will be allowed to exceed the price caps if they ca=
n=20
justify it to FERC officials. Borenstein said FERC in the past has allowed=
=20
generators to justify just about every price level imaginable, and he's=20
suspicious that the commission will let generators do the same in order to=
=20
evade the new price controls.=20
State officials, while cautiously optimistic about the plan, were upset tha=
t=20
FERC will allow a 10 percent price premium on electricity because of the ri=
sk=20
of selling to the California market.=20
"We recognize that the risk of nonpayment in California continues to be=20
greater" than in other states, the commission said in its written opinion,=
=20
released late Tuesday.=20
Gov. Gray Davis' spokesman, Steve Maviglio, called the premium ludicrous=20
because the state Department of Water Resources has been buying electricity=
=20
ever since the state's troubled utilities exhausted their credit in=20
mid-January.=20
"The state is as creditworthy a buyer as you can get," Maviglio said.=20
Experts said the plan also won't correct the state's energy imbalance.=20
"None of this is going to have much effect on blackouts," Borenstein said.=
=20
"This is solving part of the problem; I'm worried people will think=20
everything has been solved.=20
"The emphasis now has to be on getting California to conserve," he added.=
=20
A spokesman for power generators, Gary Ackerman, said the price controls=20
could worsen shortages this summer and will discourage generating firms fro=
m=20
investing in the new power plants the West desperately needs.=20
Builders "are going to sit on the fence and think about this," said Ackerma=
n,=20
head of the Western Power Trading Forum.=20
Acting in the face of mounting political pressure and unrelenting criticism=
=20
from California, FERC voted Monday to impose round-the-clock price controls=
=20
throughout the 11-state Western region.=20
The FERC plan replaces a three-week-old plan that applied only to Californi=
a=20
and took effect only when power reserves fell to below 7 percent of demand=
=20
and an official "power alert" was declared.=20
By extending the plan to the entire West, experts said the commission=20
probably put an end to the phenomenon known as "megawatt laundering," in=20
which power was shipped out of California and then re-imported. Imported=20
power wasn't subject to the old price controls.=20
The new controls, said consultant Stiffler, "significantly narrow the abili=
ty=20
of a trader to move power around and play the market."=20

The Bee's Dale Kasler can be reached at (916) 321-1066 or dkasler@sacbee.co=
m.




State to borrow up to $5 billion to buy energy=20
By Emily Bazar
Bee Capitol Bureau
(Published June 20, 2001)=20
State Treasurer Phil Angelides announced Tuesday that he will borrow up to =
$5=20
billion to pay for future power purchases, a move he said was necessary to=
=20
avoid a continued drain on California's budget and cuts in other state=20
programs.=20
Since mid-January, energy purchased by the state Department of Water=20
Resources on the spot market and under long-term contracts has come out of=
=20
the state's general fund, the source of most state spending.=20
Once the loan becomes final by the end of next week, however, energy will b=
e=20
purchased with the proceeds.=20
Made possible by an emergency order from the governor, the loan ultimately=
=20
will be paid off by customers of the state's investor-owned utilities throu=
gh=20
their electricity rates.=20
"In essence, it stops the general fund bleeding," Angelides said.=20
The state has so far committed $8.2 billion from the general fund to=20
electricity purchases. Of that amount, Angelides said the Department of Wat=
er=20
Resources has actually spent about $6.1 billion through June 12 on power=20
purchases, and has received about $900 million back from customers'=20
electricity rates.=20
Officials expect the loan to finance power purchases through September, whe=
n=20
they plan to issue up to $13.4 billion in revenue bonds.=20
The bonds will reimburse the general fund and and pay off the loan.=20
"This gives the state some more running room, some more cushion in case=20
anything goes awry with the bond sale to make sure ... the state does not r=
un=20
out of general fund money, jeopardizing education programs, law enforcement=
=20
programs, children's and health services," the Democratic treasurer said.=
=20
Angelides said he has obtained firm commitments for $3.5 billion from JP=20
Morgan and Lehman Brothers at a blended interest rate of about 4.5 percent.=
=20
If the long-term bonds are not issued by Oct. 31, the interest rate would=
=20
climb to about 7 percent.=20
Lawmakers initially had hoped to close the short-term loan in May and float=
=20
the long-term bonds shortly thereafter. However, Republicans in the state=
=20
Legislature balked at the plan, forcing the delay of the bond sale until=20
mid-August.=20
Rather than wait, Gov. Gray Davis invoked his emergency powers to allow for=
=20
the loan and circumvent the delay.=20
Assembly Republicans don't mind that the governor used his emergency powers=
=20
to expedite the loan, said James Fisfis, a spokesman for the caucus. Instea=
d,=20
he said, they're concerned the loan could backfire and hurt Californians.=
=20
"If the larger bond offering falls through, the penalties and added interes=
t=20
could add up on ratepayers' bills," he said.=20
But Angelides argued that the loan would benefit ratepayers on several=20
fronts: Power generators can no longer argue the state should pay a "credit=
=20
premium" on electricity, he said, and for the most part will not be able to=
=20
walk away from long-term energy contracts that have provisions requiring th=
e=20
Department of Water Resources to obtain external financing by July 1.=20
Outside the Legislature, the announcement drew praise from financial analys=
ts=20
who had criticized the state for buying power with taxpayer money.=20
In late April, for instance, Standard & Poor cited fears over the state's=
=20
mounting power costs when it downgraded California's credit rating on state=
=20
bonds.=20
But S&P managing director Steven Zimmermann called the governor's executive=
=20
order a step in the right direction.=20
"We're very happy," Zimmermann said. "We were very anxious for the state to=
=20
take the general fund out of the energy purchasing position it's been in."=
=20

The Bee's Emily Bazar can be reached at (916) 326-5540 or ebazar@sacbee.com=
.



Dan Walters: Once burned, lawmakers are very wary of Davis-Edison agreement


(Published June 20, 2001)=20
The Capitol's politicians rarely attempt to resolve big, complicated policy=
=20
issues, preferring to occupy their time with relatively trivial matters --=
=20
which also tend to be the priorities of well-heeled and generous interest=
=20
groups.=20
And when they even acknowledge a need to address something big, they'll oft=
en=20
just nibble at the edges rather than confront the underlying conflicts=20
squarely. That's been the pattern on water, transportation, population grow=
th=20
and public education, to name but a few of many examples.=20
The Capitol completed just one comprehensive, or seemingly comprehensive, b=
it=20
of policymaking during the last quarter-century. But the issue on that=20
occasion was electric utility deregulation, which has exploded into an ener=
gy=20
crisis of monumental proportions. And that experience is having a paralyzin=
g=20
effect on the Capitol's denizens.=20
Some Capitol old-timers call it "1890 disease," named after the number of t=
he=20
1996 bill that created California's fatally flawed system of pricing electr=
ic=20
power. The legislation was written largely by lobbyists for affected intere=
st=20
groups and then presented to the full Legislature for take-it-or-leave-it=
=20
approval. The measure was passed without a single dissenting vote, even=20
though only a few lawmakers even began to understand its ramifications.=20
It was a huge failure of the legislative process, virtually a dereliction o=
f=20
duty, and those who participated have been doing some fancy explaining. But=
=20
given the history, both veteran legislators and those who came to the Capit=
ol=20
after 1996 are very leery about putting their names on additional pieces of=
=20
energy policy that could backfire if the real-world outcome is markedly=20
different from the purported effects.=20
One example is the $43 billion in long-term energy supply contracts=20
negotiated by Gov. Gray Davis' administration to end the state's dependence=
=20
on volatile spot market prices. When the long-term contracting program was=
=20
authorized by the Legislature early this year, it was on the assurances of=
=20
the administration that it could obtain large quantities of power at cheap=
=20
prices. But by the time that the contracts were made final, months later, t=
he=20
average price was 25 percent higher than what was stated earlier, while the=
=20
spot market had fallen dramatically. Now the long-term contracts that seeme=
d=20
like such a good idea in January and February could become financial=20
albatrosses.=20
An even more telling example is the deal Davis made with Southern Californi=
a=20
Edison to keep the utility from joining Pacific Gas and Electric in=20
bankruptcy. The utilities accumulated at least $13 billion in debts in six=
=20
months, buying power at prices much higher than they were allowed to=20
recapture from their customers. Consumer groups are denouncing the Edison=
=20
deal as a corporate bailout that would impose multibillion-dollar burdens o=
n=20
customers while imposing virtually no financial onus on Edison or its=20
creditors. And the deal's critics are pouncing on legislators' reluctance t=
o=20
do something that might haunt them later -- especially in 2002, a critical=
=20
election year.=20
"Five years ago, lawmakers and the utilities foolishly foisted this=20
deregulation scheme onto California consumers, and now the governor and=20
Edison expect the ratepayers to pay billions more to save the utilities fro=
m=20
their own mismanagement and bad policy decisions," consumer gadfly Harvey=
=20
Rosenfield said Tuesday as legislative hearings opened on the Edison deal.=
=20
"This time, the whole world is watching the Legislature."=20
Harry Snyder of Consumers Union echoed Rosenfield's pledge to hold=20
legislators accountable. "It looks a lot like 1890," Snyder said. "It's too=
=20
big, (and) this is the same process all over again."=20
The sheer complexity and potential ramifications of the deal are weighing=
=20
heavily on lawmakers. "This is not a Mother's Day resolution," Senate Energ=
y=20
Committee Chairwoman Debra Bowen said wryly as the hearings began. Davis an=
d=20
Edison lobbyists are pulling out all the stops, but legislators are very,=
=20
very nervous about taking another big step that could generate public=20
backlash.=20

The Bee's Dan Walters can be reached at (916) 321-1195 or dwalters@sacbee.c=
om
.



Senate Democrats lay back to see if FERC action provides rate relief=20



By Finlay Lewis
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE=20
June 19, 2001=20
WASHINGTON =01) Key Senate Democrats called a truce Tuesday in the politica=
l=20
wars raging over California's energy crisis, as they adopted a wait-and-see=
=20
posture over the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's latest order=20
restricting electricity prices across much of the West.=20
Senators of both parties expressed relief over FERC's action on Monday. But=
=20
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said she was skeptical that the order woul=
d=20
end wholesale price manipulation by power providers or result in refunds to=
=20
overcharged ratepayers.=20
Feinstein and Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., have prepared legislation seeking =
a=20
much tighter pricing formula than the one FERC used. But she asked that the=
ir=20
bill be set aside temporarily in deference to the agency's action.=20
"I think we should wait and see what happens," Feinstein said during a Sena=
te=20
Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the FERC order.=20
Democrats on the committee pressed FERC Chairman Curtis L. Hebert and the=
=20
four other commissioners on why they had not acted sooner to control the=20
daily price turbulence in the California energy market. A market-interventi=
on=20
order issued by FERC in April was designed to cope only with energy-supply=
=20
emergencies, despite pleas by California Gov. Gray Davis and other Californ=
ia=20
Democrats for more drastic measures.=20
"It's time to stop blaming and start problem-solving," said Hebert, a=20
Republican appointed chairman by President Bush.=20
Hebert noted that electricity prices on the volatile spot market have dropp=
ed=20
considerably since the April order. Prices on the energy futures market hav=
e=20
also tumbled, as have natural gas prices =01) a key component in the cost o=
f=20
electricity.=20
On Monday, FERC unanimously ordered around-the-clock restraints on wholesal=
e=20
electricity prices in California and 10 neighboring states over the next 15=
=20
months.=20
As was the case with the April measure, prices will be pegged to the costs =
of=20
the least efficient power provider when reserves in California fall below 7=
=20
percent. But when reserves are more plentiful, the prices will drop to 85=
=20
percent of the level established during supply shortages.=20
The order also provides for a 22-day period, involving arbitration and revi=
ew=20
by an administrative law judge, for resolving price-gouging allegations and=
=20
providing refunds in cases of improper pricing.=20
Adamantly opposing price controls earlier, FERC acted after coming under=20
intense pressure from lawmakers of both parties. Republicans said they were=
=20
worried that their GOP colleagues in California would have been blamed and=
=20
possibly imperiled at the polls if FERC had failed to act.=20
Bush, who also took a hard line against price caps, blessed FERC's action=
=20
after it was taken.=20
Hebert criticized the bill advanced by Feinstein and Smith as an attempt to=
=20
solve California's problem by "bureaucratic fiat."=20
Their measure would calculate wholesale electricity prices based on the=20
reported production costs of the individual generators, with an added=20
allowance for a profit margin.=20
Hebert argued that the "mitigation price" that FERC will establish "is not =
a=20
blunt, arbitrary figure that bears no resemblance to market conditions and =
is=20
subject to political pressures and whims."=20
Meanwhile, Commissioner William Massey made it clear that he harbors=20
misgivings about the FERC measure, although he supported it.=20
He said the agency should have acted earlier to avoid the subsequent=20
"carnage" in California, has failed to provide guidelines that would assure=
=20
refunds to overcharged consumers and has acted questionably in allowing pow=
er=20
providers to impose a 10-percent surcharge to cover credit-worthiness risks=
.=20
Massey, a Democrat who has consistently criticized his colleagues for movin=
g=20
too slowing in the California crisis, also said he wondered whether the ord=
er=20
would provide an unintended incentive for generators to continue using=20
inefficient units in order to assure higher profit margins for their more=
=20
modern facilities.=20
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., said she would propose legislation later this=
=20
week designed to assure refunds to customers who have had to pay unfair=20
prices for their electricity.=20
"If FERC won't do it ... Congress should," Boxer said.=20
A spokesman for Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., chairman of the committee, said=
=20
Bingaman agreed with Feinstein on the need for a time-out while the FERC=20
order is being implemented.=20
Gov. Davis will testify today (6/20) before the Senate Government Affairs=
=20
Committee, which is investigating FERC's role in the crisis. Hebert and the=
=20
other commissioners will also appear.=20






House panel erases Bush energy cuts=20



By Alan Fram
ASSOCIATED PRESS=20
June 19, 2001=20
WASHINGTON =01) A House subcommittee voted Tuesday to spend $1.2 billion mo=
re=20
next year than President Bush proposed for energy and water programs,=20
underlining lawmakers' sensitivity to the West's power problems and their=
=20
desire for home-district projects.=20
The $23.7 billion measure, approved by voice vote by a panel of the House=
=20
Appropriations Committee, is normally one of the more routine of the 13=20
annual spending measures Congress must approve. But with this year's=20
escalating battle between Bush and Democrats over energy policy, the=20
measure's profile has been raised.=20
The bill would provide $18.7 billion for the Energy Department, $641 millio=
n=20
more than Bush requested and $444 million more than this year. Fiscal 2002,=
=20
which the bill covers, begins Oct. 1.=20
It also includes nearly $4.5 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers and th=
e=20
hundreds of water projects it has under way across the country, $568 millio=
n=20
more than Bush proposed but $73 million less than this year.=20
The measure was approved shortly after top members of the committee met wit=
h=20
Bush at the White House.=20
Participants said Bush and the lawmakers reaffirmed their goal of keeping t=
he=20
price tag of the 13 bills to $661 billion, which is one-third of the overal=
l=20
federal budget. That would be a 4 percent boost over 2001, which many=20
Democrats =01) and some Republicans in private =01) say is too low.=20
"He said there would be attempts to raise this as we go through the process=
,=20
and let's stick with him," said Rep. Sonny Callahan, R-Ala., chairman of th=
e=20
energy and water subcommittee.=20
Illustrating the pressures Republicans face, David Sirota, spokesman for th=
e=20
Democrats on the committee, said the bill lacked the new spending needed fo=
r=20
renewable energy and other programs that could help alleviate power=20
shortages.=20
Under the bill approved Tuesday, renewable energy programs would get $377=
=20
million, $100 million more than Bush wanted and $1 million more than this=
=20
year. Nuclear energy, basic energy sciences, biological and environmental=
=20
research and a study of whether spent nuclear fuel should be stored at a=20
Nevada site would all get about what Bush proposed.=20
The bill's $7.03 billion for environmental cleanups is $699 million more th=
an=20
Bush proposed. Programs aimed at containing the nuclear arsenals of former=
=20
Soviet states would get $845 million, $71 million more than Bush's plan.=20
Members voted to hold the brief meeting behind closed doors after citing th=
e=20
national security sensitivity of publicly discussing some of the nuclear=20
weapons programs covered by the bill.=20






Davis, Regulators Face Off at Hearing

From Reuters=20

?????WASHINGTON -- California Governor Gray Davis, a Democrat, today blamed=
a=20
Republican-led energy regulatory agency for not doing enough to help his=20
energy-starved state and demanded refunds of $6.7 billion for alleged=20
price-gouging by power generators.
?????Davis, whose political future has been linked to his state's electrici=
ty=20
woes, was testifying at a Senate hearing with members of the Federal Energy=
=20
Regulatory Commission.
?????The hearing marked the first time that Davis met face to face with all=
=20
five FERC commissioners.
?????FERC regulates interstate electricity markets and has jurisdiction to=
=20
order refunds by power generators found to have overcharged utilities.
?????Earlier this week the agency, led by a Republican majority, rejected=
=20
Davis' pleas for strict caps on prices that soared above $400 per megawatt=
=20
hour last month.
?????Sen. Joseph Lieberman, the former Democratic vice presidential nominee=
,=20
heads the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee that quizzed the FERC=20
commissioners and Davis on efforts to stabilize the chaotic Western=20
electricity market.
?????Davis accused FERC of failing to act aggressively against alleged=20
price-gouging by out-of-state generators.
?????"To date, not a single penny in refunds has been returned to=20
Californians," Davis said. "It is unconscionable for the generators to prof=
it=20
from their egregious overcharges. FERC must move quickly to enforce the law=
=20
and order the energy companies to give back the money."
?????Davis said the state is owed refunds of at least $6.7 billion.=20
California's grid operator has estimated that from May 2000 to May 2001,=20
power generators charged the state nearly $9 billion more than a competitiv=
e=20
market would warrant, he said.
?????California, the nation's most populous state, has been hit with a seri=
es=20
of rolling blackouts, the bankruptcy of its largest utility, and an economi=
c=20
slowdown since the power crisis began last year.
?????The state is expected to convene a criminal grand jury to investigate=
=20
whether some power generators withheld supplies, shut down plants or=20
exploited the bidding process to drive up prices. Out-of-state generators=
=20
deny any illegal activity, saying the high prices simply reflect supply=20
shortages.
?????Today also marks the day that FERC's newly expanded "price mitigation"=
=20
program goes into effect in all 11 Western states with a wholesale price=20
limit of $107.9 per megawatt hour linked to a market formula. The plan had=
=20
previously applied only to California during emergency power outages.
?????Since FERC's action earlier this week, Senate Democrats dropped a=20
legislative effort to strictly cap electricity prices in the West. However,=
=20
California Democrats in the House were still trying to force a full vote on=
a=20
package of energy amendments, including a price cap.
?????The Bush administration and many Republicans oppose price caps,=20
contending they would discourage more power production.
?????Separately, today the U.S. Energy Department issued a study that=20
supported the White House's view that strict price caps would hurt, not hel=
p,=20
California.
?????The study found California faces about 113 hours of rolling blackouts=
=20
this summer, a level that would double if wholesale prices were capped at=
=20
$150 per megawatt because some 3,600 megawatts of generating capacity would=
=20
shut down. An alternative approach of setting a price cap based on producti=
on=20
costs plus $25 per megawatt would delay or close about 1,300 megawatts of=
=20
capacity scheduled to be built in the state, according to the study.
?????However, lawmakers from both political parties have scrambled for some=
=20
kind of solution to address the shortages in California well before the=20
congressional elections next year.
?????The FERC plan expands an existing "price mitigation" program in=20
California to 10 other Western states. The plan, which runs through Septemb=
er=20
2002, means that during nonemergency periods the price for wholesale power=
=20
cannot exceed 85 percent of the cost of electricity sold during a Stage 1=
=20
power shortage emergency in California.
?????A Stage 1 emergency is declared when electricity supplies fall below 7=
=20
percent of demand on the Western power grid.
?????The plan also imposes a 10 percent surcharge on all power sales into=
=20
California as financial protection for generators reluctant to sell to the=
=20
state's financially weak utilities.
?????Davis was due to meet the two newest FERC commissioners, Patrick Wood =
of=20
Texas and Nora Brownell of Pennsylvania, today. Both are former utilities=
=20
regulators in states that successfully deregulated their power industry and=
=20
nominated to the agency by President Bush.

Copyright 2001 Los Angeles Times=20






NEWS ANALYSIS
Energy on Agenda, but Issue Is Blame=20
Politics: Gov. Davis will try to sway voter anger toward the GOP as he face=
s=20
a Senate panel.=20

By RONALD BROWNSTEIN, Times Political Writer=20

?????WASHINGTON--When California Gov. Gray Davis testifies at a high-profil=
e=20
Senate hearing today, the issue formally on the table will be the expanded=
=20
electricity price controls that federal regulators approved this week. But=
=20
the session's political subtext will be the escalating struggle between Dav=
is=20
and national Republicans to determine where California voters look for=20
solutions--and blame--for the state's power woes.
?????In both California and Washington, Republican strategists believe Davi=
s=20
is trying to manufacture a succession of conflicts with the White House tha=
t=20
will allow him to run in 2002 as much against President Bush as against=20
whomever the state GOP nominates in the gubernatorial race. In return,=20
Republicans are trying to shift the focus back toward Davis--most=20
aggressively through a California-wide television advertising campaign=20
organized by Scott Reed, a former executive director of the Republican=20
National Committee.
?????"Our goal is to get the focus back to Sacramento, where it belongs,"=
=20
Reed said.
?????Both sides see the same prize in this tug of war: the opportunity to=
=20
determine where most Californians direct their anger during what could be a=
=20
long, hot summer of power shortages.
?????"The situation is that the public's minds are not made up on this=20
issue--whether it is Sacramento or Washington who has acted too little, too=
=20
late," said Mark Baldassare, a pollster at the independent Public Policy=20
Institute of California. "That gives both sides an opportunity to get their=
=20
messages out. The stakes are fairly high in terms of how the public in=20
California ends up assessing blame over the next few months."

?????A Slight Uptick in Davis' Popularity
?????Overall, Davis' political situation appears to be stabilizing. After=
=20
months of runaway power costs, the prices the state pays for wholesale=20
electricity are falling and new plants will come online next month. And=20
following a free fall in private polls, Davis has seen his numbers tick bac=
k=20
up slightly. Similarly, a poll financed by independent power generators=20
showed that in mid-June, for the first time in months, Californians were=20
becoming slightly more confident that the crisis is easing.
?????Within the state Capitol, Davis is asserting himself, demanding that=
=20
lawmakers hold hearings on his rescue plan for Southern California Edison. =
On=20
Monday, he released details of a similar plan for San Diego Gas & Electric.=
=20
Last week, he announced an agreement that is likely to increase generation =
by=20
alternative energy producers, who account for about a fourth of the state's=
=20
supply.
?????"This guy is changing," said state Sen. Steve Peace (D-El Cajon), who =
a=20
few months back had been urging that Davis take a more aggressive stance on=
=20
the crisis. "There is a difference in his demeanor and focus."
?????Yet the energy crisis still looms as a vast cloud over a reelection=20
campaign that once looked like a stroll on the beach.
?????The paradox for Davis is that the substantive victory for pricecontrol=
=20
advocates at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission meeting this week may=
=20
complicate his political goal of maintaining a heavy focus on Washington.=
=20
Though Davis and some congressional Democrats portrayed FERC's decision as=
=20
insufficient, it appears to have lanced the pressure for federal legislatio=
n=20
to impose the tighter price controls that Davis supports.=20
?????Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a principal sponsor of that bill, on=
=20
Tuesday announced she would shelve the measure for six months to give the n=
ew=20
FERC plan time to work.
?????As a result, the political effect of the FERC ruling could be to shift=
=20
the focus away from Washington back toward decisions in Sacramento, which i=
s=20
exactly what Republicans prefer. "Gray Davis is the dog that finally caught=
=20
the car," said Dan Schnur, a San Francisco-based GOP consultant. "Davis is=
=20
going to keep screaming about price caps and refunds, but now Republicans c=
an=20
point to substantive action."

?????Davis: 'Much More They Should Do'
?????For months, Davis has criticized Bush for refusing to support=20
electricity price controls and other measures that the governor says could=
=20
ease California's energy crunch. At almost every opportunity, Davis offers=
=20
the same message: California is taking the steps it needs to, but Washingto=
n=20
has failed to help enough. That was precisely Davis' message Monday when FE=
RC=20
significantly expanded the limited price caps it had imposed previously.
?????While saying that FERC had "finally taken a step in the right=20
direction," Davis added: "There is much more they should do"--including=20
providing refunds to California for alleged overcharges. The overall tone o=
f=20
Davis' statement was much more skeptical about FERC's action than the remar=
ks=20
from Feinstein, who described the decision as "a giant step forward."
?????Aides say Davis plans to repeat that two-part message in his appearanc=
e=20
today before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, chaired by Sen.=20
Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.). In his testimony, and in a round of schedule=
d=20
television appearances, Davis will demand that FERC order refunds in the=20
range of $5 billion to $6 billion to the state, aides said. Davis also will=
=20
distribute to every member of Congress a 177-page book chronicling the=20
state's response to the crisis.
?????Inside the Bush White House, some officials see in Davis' cool respons=
e=20
to FERC's decision more evidence that the governor is determined to use the=
=20
White House as a foil in his reelection campaign. The prevailing view, one=
=20
official said, is that, no matter what concessions the administration offer=
s,=20
Davis will immediately raise the bar and demand something else--the way he=
=20
did by talking about rebates as soon as FERC offered tougher price controls=
.
?????"That is Davis' M.O.," said one official involved in the White House's=
=20
energy strategy. "He asks the administration to do something, the=20
administration does it, and then he attacks the administration for not doin=
g=20
enough. . . . He needs someone to blame."
?????Davis aides reject that characterization, arguing that the governor is=
=20
merely representing the state's interests against an administration that th=
ey=20
maintain is favoring energy producers over consumers. But Davis advisors=20
acknowledge that they have used focus groups to test campaign messages that=
=20
pin the blame for the energy crunch primarily on Davis' Republican=20
predecessor, Pete Wilson, and a "Republican president who has failed to sto=
p=20
his rich friends in the energy industry" from gouging consumers, one aide=
=20
said.
?????"You don't have to tell people in focus groups more than once how this=
=20
is connected," the Davis aide said.

?????Gubernatorial Rivals Are Free of Blame
?????Baldassare, the independent pollster, notes it may be especially=20
imperative for Davis to keep Bush's energy decisions in the spotlight becau=
se=20
none of his potential Republican opponents in 2002--California Secretary of=
=20
State Bill Jones, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan or businessman=
=20
William E. Simon Jr.--is easily tagged with complicity in the problem. "Non=
e=20
of them were really involved in the decision-making over deregulation,"=20
Baldassare said. "The only one else to blame, in a political sense, is=20
Washington and the Bush administration."
?????The new independent advertising campaign against Davis was inspired=20
largely by the fear of that strategy succeeding--damaging the standing in=
=20
California not only of Bush but also of other Republicans, particularly tho=
se=20
in Congress. Reed, whose American Taxpayers Alliance is funding the ads, sa=
id=20
he decided to launch the campaign after Davis appeared to gain the upper ha=
nd=20
in the media debate following Bush's visit to California late last month.
?????"The Bush trip really changed the terms of debate about Davis' problem=
=20
and made it more of a possible national Republican problem," Reed said. "Th=
e=20
entire terms of debate turned around and was focused on the issue of price=
=20
caps as opposed to negligence on Davis' behalf. Our group is attempting to =
go=20
out and engage Davis."
?????To "engage" Davis, Reed's group, which has not revealed its donors, is=
=20
spending what he said would be $1.5 million on an initial ad criticizing=20
Davis this week, though a spot check of TV stations around the state=20
indicated a far more modest buy. Reed said the group is planning to air a n=
ew=20
ad as soon as this week.
?????Democrats plan to answer the ads with attacks of their own and will be=
=20
filing complaints with the IRS and other federal agencies about the anonymo=
us=20
funding of the Reed ad.
?????Today's Senate hearing will give Davis another chance to respond to th=
e=20
GOP and make his case for greater help from Washington. But Lieberman aides=
=20
acknowledge the hearing is likely to be much less confrontational than it=
=20
would have been if FERC had not acted Monday. The agency's decision "change=
d=20
the dynamic," the aide said.
?????That assessment may apply not only to the conflict between FERC and it=
s=20
critics but also equally to the hostilities between Davis and the White Hou=
se.
---=20
?????Times staff writers Dan Morain in Sacramento and Mark Z. Barabak in Lo=
s=20
Angeles contributed to this story.

Copyright 2001 Los Angeles Times=20







Blackout Forecasts' Dark Side=20
If optimists are wrong and the power runs out, California's energy crisis=
=20
could quickly cost lives and cripple the economy.=20

By JENIFER WARREN, Times Staff Writer=20

?????It's here. Summer 2001, the blackout season, is only a day away.
?????Already Californians anticipate power outages when temperatures rise. =
By=20
August, the occasional annoyances endured so far--stoplights gone dark,=20
computers, air conditioners and elevators idled--could seem almost quaint.
?????Gov. Gray Davis insists we needn't worry. Four large new power plants=
=20
are firing up soon, he said, and government's best and brightest are lockin=
g=20
up still more megawatts to help meet our peak summer need. Californians,=20
Davis predicts, will valiantly heed his call to conserve, helping the state=
=20
survive the hot months, no sweat.
?????With luck, he'll be right. Power prices have stabilized, and some ener=
gy=20
analysts are wondering whether California may have tamed the blackout beast=
.
?????But what if those plants don't get built in time, people don't trim=20
their electricity use 7% and energy imports are more meager than expected?
?????And what if the state gets hit by a summer that is not moderately hot,=
=20
as Davis bets, but blistering, record-setting hot?
?????Government experts who ponder such questions don't expect disaster in=
=20
the coming months. But they are planning for it nonetheless.
?????At best, they say, Californians can expect some gridlocked=20
intersections, an occasionally overloaded 911 system, perhaps some business=
=20
bankruptcies, certainly inconvenience. At worst, the Western power grid cou=
ld=20
crash, causing uncontrolled blackouts that might lead to looting,=20
contaminated water supplies, even civil unrest.
?????"How bad could this summer get?" said state Sen. Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana=
).=20
"This summer could be the worst disaster to ever hit the state of Californi=
a."
?????Imagine it's a Thursday morning in the third week of July. Relentless=
=20
heat grips California, the curse of a stubborn high-pressure ridge that jus=
t=20
won't budge.
?????As air conditioners from Redding to Chula Vista lumber to life, manage=
rs=20
of the state's power grid in Folsom gulp their third and fourth cups of=20
coffee, stare at a bank of computers and begin to fret.
?????Demand is jumping. Supply is static, Canada and Arizona have nothing t=
o=20
sell. It's looking tight.
?????Thirty minutes later, the picture is gloomier. A brush fire shuts down=
=20
transmission lines near Fresno, squeezing supply in the Central Valley. In=
=20
the Bay Area, the unusual heat drives demand well past projections.
?????By noon things look bleak. Operators of the Diablo Canyon nuclear powe=
r=20
plant near San Luis Obispo have cut output by 80%. The trouble? Chunks of=
=20
kelp have lodged in one of the plant's seawater intake valves, creating a=
=20
clog like one that plagued the facility in January.
?????With a chorus of groans, the grid's keepers scour the market for power=
=20
to offset the Diablo loss. No luck. As the mercury climbs and the Golden=20
State economy roars into full swing, electricity consumption ticks upward,=
=20
minute by minute. And when managers of a power plant near Long Beach cut=20
output because of a cracked turbine, everyone knows what it means.
?????Alert the utilities. It's lights out, California, for the fourth day i=
n=20
a row.
?????Dr. J. Michael Leary dreads blackouts--not personally, but=20
professionally. Leary is an emergency room physician in the desert city of=
=20
Rancho Mirage. When air conditioners go on the blink there, the=20
victims--scores of them, mostly old folks--wind up in his ER.
?????In a normal year, 75% of his emergency patients are geriatrics. Like=
=20
infants, the elderly are unusually vulnerable to the heat. When blackouts=
=20
hit, they are most at risk.
?????"It's as if you lived in Maine and they turned the heat off in January=
,"=20
Leary said. "This is an extreme environment we live in. The effects can be=
=20
devastating."
?????Many desert seniors are on fixed incomes and live in mobile homes, som=
e=20
of them poorly insulated boxes that turn into ovens under the brutal summer=
=20
sun. Take away the air conditioning and the humans inside start baking, qui=
ck.
?????For Leary, the specter of continual, back-to-back blackouts in=20
July--and, some predict, in June and August too--conjures images of an=20
82-year-old man, living alone in one of those mobile homes, taking medicati=
on=20
for heart disease. The cardiovascular drugs plague the man with numerous si=
de=20
effects; one inhibits his body's ability to cool itself.
?????When a person gets overheated, body temperature eventually rises=20
uncontrollably. Then comes a nasty spiral of effects, and pretty soon "you =
go=20
into shock," Leary said. "Everything just shuts down."
?????On average each year, 371 Americans die from heat-related causes, more=
=20
than the number killed by earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning and=
=20
floods combined. In 1995, a record hot spell in Chicago killed 465 people.=
=20
Eleven Californians died from the heat in 1998.
?????A new report by the United Seniors Assn. predicts that more than half =
a=20
million elderly Californians could need hospitalization for heat-related=20
ailments this summer.=20
?????Some communities have laid plans for cooling shelters, wading pools an=
d=20
other measures to provide relief. But will all who need help get it? Or get=
=20
it in time?
?????Out in the desert, paramedics expect a crush of 911 calls when the pow=
er=20
goes out and the ill, frail and frightened seek help. Leary and others at=
=20
Eisenhower Medical Center will be waiting, armed with ice packs, cooled IVs=
=20
and ventilators.
?????"I am very, very worried," the doctor said. "I think we'll see a great=
=20
toll in human suffering, even mortality."
?????California's tomato processors are no less anxious. They wash, cook,=
=20
peel, chop, mash and can about 1 million tons of tomatoes a week from July =
to=20
October--enough to account for half the world's supply. For them, a string =
of=20
unexpected power losses could mean economic ruin in a matter of days.
?????The reason lies in the peculiar nature of food processing--a sterile=
=20
system instantly contaminated if the power fails and the plant's precise=20
temperature is disturbed.
?????Once a batch of tomatoes is tainted, it must be thrown out--all 50,000=
=20
pounds. The plant must then be sanitized, a painstaking process that takes=
=20
about 36 hours.
?????"If you get hit by blackouts every third day for, say, two weeks, you'=
re=20
starting, stopping, cleaning, restarting--it's a nightmare," said Jeff Boes=
e,=20
president of the California League of Food Processors. "You could lose thre=
e=20
batches and be out $40 million before you knew what hit you."
?????Meanwhile, farmers with still more truckloads of tomatoes line up=20
outside the plant, waiting to be paid for their crop: "If we can't process=
=20
them, the farmers have spent an entire season growing them for nothing,"=20
Boese said.
?????In Sonoma County, the object in peril is the chicken. Egg producers=20
equip their laying houses with fans and swamp coolers to keep the hens=20
comfortable. Power is also needed to run giant refrigerators filled with eg=
gs.
?????"In a blackout, those hens can overheat in no time," said Rich Matteis=
=20
of the Pacific Egg and Poultry Assn. "In 20 or 30 minutes, you could have=
=20
100,000 birds die."
?????Many large producers have backup generators, but they are not designed=
=20
for ongoing, intensive use. Will they hold up? Small-scale egg producers=20
often have no backup power at all.
?????Hundreds of other California businesses could suffer if summer shapes =
up=20
as bad as some predict.
?????The Valero Refining Co. of California, northeast of San Francisco,=20
produces 115,000 barrels of gasoline a day. Because restarting a refinery i=
s=20
a complicated task, two or three blackouts close together could prompt=20
officials to shutter it until electricity supplies stabilize--costing=20
California about 10% of its gasoline supply.
?????At a Berkeley medical laboratory, doctors say power losses to their=20
freezers could destroy bone marrow needed to give young leukemia patients=
=20
lifesaving transplants. The state's 400 dialysis centers, where patients=20
without kidney function go to have their blood cleansed every other day, ar=
e=20
in the same fix. Few have backup generators, so when an outage hits,=20
technicians must crank the machines by hand.
?????Most Californians, of course, face far more ordinary consequences. The=
=20
scoreboards will fizzle at summer softball games, joggers on treadmills wil=
l=20
be stopped in their tracks, electric organs will go silent, leaving choirs =
to=20
sing without accompaniment.
?????Parents will be asked to retrieve children from day-care centers when=
=20
the lights and cooling systems conk out. Anniversary lunches may be ruined=
=20
when restaurants cannot grill salmon or blend margaritas.
?????Most people will tolerate occasional disturbances, psychologists say,=
=20
doing their part in a time of crisis. But what if such irritations become a=
n=20
everyday fact of life?
?????Hundreds of "essential" energy users--including prisons, fire=20
departments and airports--are protected from blackouts, and hundreds more=
=20
have applied for exemptions. That means the pool of people bearing the=20
blackout burden is shrinking, so more frequent outages are likely.
?????Blackout predictions vary widely, but at least one forecaster, a=20
consultant for California water districts, anticipates an outage almost eve=
ry=20
afternoon of every workday this summer if temperatures are unusually warm.
?????Californians are accustomed to trash compactors, giant-screen TVs and=
=20
having the Internet at their fingertips. How much deprivation will they=20
tolerate?
?????"So far, the version of blackouts we've experienced hasn't looked too=
=20
scary to people--it happens on a workday, in the afternoon, and you basical=
ly=20
have to come home and reset your VCR," said Dan Kammen, a professor of ener=
gy=20
and society at UC Berkeley.
?????But if outages become daily events, and start to invade the evening=20
hours, the public mood could change abruptly.
?????"When there's a disaster or crisis or trauma, people tend to act=20
heroically and work together," said Robert Butterworth, a Los Angeles=20
psychologist and trauma specialist. "But the civilized behavior only lasts =
a=20
short period. Then people start acting in unpredictable ways."
?????That tendency may be exacerbated, Butterworth said, by the nature of t=
he=20
energy crisis--not a natural disaster, but a man-made one.
?????"People start to look for a scapegoat," he said. "People will look for=
a=20
target, and there's a tendency to strike out at whoever is closest to you."
?????One place that tendency may surface, Butterworth said, is on=20
traffic-clogged roads. Blackouts already have led to scores of accidents. A=
dd=20
summer heat to the mix, and repeat the pattern day after day at rush hour,=
=20
and motorists' patience could wear thin, law enforcement officials say.
?????"We're bracing for . . . possible acts of violence and road rage," sai=
d=20
Sacramento County Sheriff's Lt. Larry Saunders.
?????Lon House is the water consultant who predicts California could see=20
blackouts almost every summer weekday. Among the worries for the 440 water=
=20
agencies he represents: losing the ability to pump water during wildfire=20
season.
?????"I'm telling them to be ready for a major earthquake every day this=20
summer--meaning all your power is out throughout your district for multiple=
=20
hours," House said.
?????House insists he isn't an alarmist. But on top of the fire fears, he=
=20
warns that blackouts of more than a few hours would allow air into water=20
pipes, contaminating supplies. If that happens, Californians would be urged=
=20
to boil their water until the system can be disinfected from one end of the=
=20
pipe to the other.
?????Though rolling blackouts are risky, they remain essentially a controll=
ed=20
phenomenon, occurring when and where the grid managers and utilities decide=
.=20
Far more frightening--and devastating--are unexpected, cascading outages th=
at=20
could shut down the entire Western power grid. It happened in August 1996,=
=20
leaving 4 million people without power during a triple-digit heat wave.
?????The problem began when power lines in Oregon sagged into trees and shu=
t=20
themselves off. That triggered a chain reaction of automatic switch-offs an=
d=20
oscillating surges of energy that ultimately shut down all four of the main=
=20
power arteries between California and the Pacific Northwest.
?????That robbed the system of thousands of megawatts--enough to power the=
=20
city of Seattle four times over--and scattered outages across California an=
d=20
six other Western states. Thousands of customers were without power for mor=
e=20
than a day.
?????Though such an episode is rare, California grid managers say it is mor=
e=20
likely today because the system is taxed by the ever-increasing load of=20
electricity it bears.
?????"The system is very dynamic, and when it's heavily loaded and highly=
=20
stressed, like it is now, the smallest little thing could cause big trouble=
,"=20
said Kevin Bakker, who oversees California's connection to the greater=20
Western power grid.=20
?????If a massive, uncontrolled outage should hit, the ramifications could =
be=20
dizzying, said Mike Guerin, chief of law enforcement for the state Office o=
f=20
Emergency Services. Police departments would probably go to tactical alert,=
=20
guarding against looting by criminals who might take advantage of disabled=
=20
alarm systems and darkened street lights.
?????In hot areas, cities might convert municipal buses--parked with air=20
conditioners running--into cooling shelters, Guerin said. The state would=
=20
provide emergency generators to nursing homes and others in need, while the=
=20
California National Guard might be called into action.
?????"With this kind of blackout scenario, you're not worried about the=20
bologna going bad in the refrigerator," Guerin said. "We're talking about=
=20
doctors doing surgeries on backup generators for three days. We're talking=
=20
about a lot of things we don't like to think about."
---=20
?????Times staff writers Nancy Vogel and Alexander Gronke and researcher=20
Patti Williams contributed to this story.

Copyright 2001 Los Angeles Times=20







FERC Move Short-Circuits Push for Hard Price Caps=20


By RICHARD T. COOPER and JANET HOOK, Times Staff Writers=20

?????WASHINGTON--The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's decision to=20
impose full-time price ceilings on wholesale electricity in California and=
=20
the West appears to have deflated the congressional drive for a return to=
=20
traditional utility regulation.
?????Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), calling the "price mitigation" syste=
m=20
FERC unveiled Monday "a giant step forward," announced Tuesday that she is=
=20
pulling back her bill to force a return to the "cost of service" pricing=20
system that prevailed before deregulation. Republican Sen. Gordon Smith of=
=20
Oregon, a co-sponsor, agreed, as did Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), chairman =
of=20
the Senate Energy Committee.
?????House Democrats vowed to fight on for tougher controls, but they were=
=20
given little chance to succeed.
?????As a result, although the political blame game will rage on, the reali=
ty=20
of a long, ugly summer for California appears to have arrived: at least=20
several months of tears, toil, sweat--and fast-rising electric bills.
?????California consumers are likely to face an unpleasant paradox, energy=
=20
analysts said: Given present power shortages, blackouts are virtually=20
inevitable this summer. And, since state authorities are beginning to let=
=20
high wholesale prices flow through into retail bills after months of=20
subsidies, many consumers could face higher charges at the same time their=
=20
lights begin to flicker.
?????Even if FERC's order succeeds and wholesale prices fall, as they have=
=20
begun to do in recent weeks, consumers' bills are likely to rise. Since=20
retail charges lag well behind wholesale prices, closing the gap will=20
probably mean a period of higher costs for consumers, regardless of what=20
happens in wholesale markets.
?????There is light at the end of the tunnel, energy analysts said, but it =
is=20
probably a year away. And reaching it, they said, depends in part on=20
government officials taking no action that might spook investors and disrup=
t=20
present plans for expanding the region's capacity to generate and deliver=
=20
more power.
?????The new FERC system, which its designers said would provide temporary=
=20
price relief while preserving incentives for energy investment, imposes=20
cost-based curbs on wholesale prices throughout the West and covers all suc=
h=20
sales, not just those during periods of extreme shortages, as did the order=
=20
issued in April.
?????FERC Chairman Curtis L. Hebert Jr. told the committee the new system=
=20
will prevent "megawatt laundering" and other potential abuses. He said his=
=20
agency is "committed to ferreting out any forms of market misbehavior 24=20
hours a day, seven days a week."
?????With the apparent collapse of demands for more intervention, Congress=
=20
now seems ready to give FERC a year or more of leeway to see whether its pl=
an=20
will curb wholesale prices and create what FERC member Linda Breathitt, a=
=20
Democrat, called "a breathing spell" in which California and the West can=
=20
"repair their dysfunctional markets."
?????"It still remains to be seen whether there can be manipulation, but I=
=20
think we should wait and see," Feinstein said Tuesday at a Senate Energy=20
Committee meeting attended by all five FERC members. The commissioners call=
=20
their new system "price mitigation," not price caps, but Feinstein said it=
=20
amounts to the same thing.
?????"Whether you call it price mitigation or something else, a rose is a=
=20
rose is a rose," said Feinstein, a member of the energy committee.
?????And Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), appearing before the committee as a=
=20
witness, said: "I was very pleased with [Monday's] about-face by FERC. I=20
believe they have a new tone."
?????Democrats on the other side of the Capitol pledged to keep fighting fo=
r=20
traditional regulation, but with Republicans in control of the House, the=
=20
struggle appears to be largely symbolic.
?????House Democrats wanted to introduce amendments on price controls and=
=20
other energy policy to a mid-year supplemental appropriation bill due to co=
me=20
before the House today. However, GOP leaders expected to block Democrats fr=
om=20
even offering the amendments on procedural grounds.
?????The most sweeping of the amendments would set cost-based limits on=20
wholesale energy prices in the West. Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles) a=
nd=20
other sponsors insisted that the measure is still needed in spite of the FE=
RC=20
action, which he said would continue to provide windfall profits to=20
generators, encourage suppliers to withhold power and do too little to=20
restrain the price of natural gas.
?????He called the FERC policy an "experiment" that is using California and=
=20
other Western states as subjects.
?????Similarly, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) said: "Although the FER=
C=20
decision [Monday] is a step in the right direction, I am concerned it does=
=20
not remove incentives for energy suppliers to withhold power, drive up pric=
es=20
and gouge consumers."
?????The commission went as far as it did in part because of the specter of=
=20
broader price control legislation, Pelosi said. "They felt the heat, they s=
aw=20
the amendments coming and decided to act."
?????And Rep. Bob Filner (D-San Diego), in an interview Tuesday, said he wi=
ll=20
press ahead with legislation to impose hard price caps. "I would advise the=
=20
senators that after a year of dealing with these price gougers that they wi=
ll=20
easily manipulate this latest order," he said, calling it a "Swiss cheese=
=20
order--full of holes."=20
?????Feinstein's shift put House Democrats in an awkward political position=
=20
because it came just as they prepared to make their big push for tougher=20
controls. But the Democrats tried to minimize the differences in legislativ=
e=20
strategy.
?????"She too is waiting to see if the FERC experiment works," Waxman said.=
=20
"I'm a little more skeptical, but we're both watching carefully."
?????As a political matter, a Democratic leadership aide acknowledged, the=
=20
FERC order muddies the debate at a time when Democrats have been working ha=
rd=20
to make it a defining issue--and one they had hoped would help them win=20
control of the House in the 2002 elections.
?????"It's hard to describe to people what the difference is between what w=
e=20
want and what FERC has done," said the aide.
?????And Republicans said FERC's action had clearly taken the wind out of t=
he=20
sails of price control efforts that some GOP strategists feared might have=
=20
passed the House.
?????"I would have thought [it would pass] last week," said John Feehery,=
=20
spokesman for House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). "But now, with what=
=20
FERC did, it takes a lot of air out of the balloon."
?????"I think the FERC action will dissipate that strong push," agreed Emil=
y=20
Miller, a spokeswoman for House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas). "It will=
=20
take the heat off."
?????House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) said the message to Democra=
ts=20
was, "It's time to come off your political high horse."
?????He said he wanted to keep Democrats from offering their price control=
=20
amendment to Wednesday's supplemental appropriation bill because the propos=
al=20
is "a political statement, not a policy statement."
---=20
?????Times staff writers Megan Garvey and Richard Simon contributed to this=
=20
story.

Copyright 2001 Los Angeles Times=20








Plan Won't Raise Rates, Davis Says=20
Edison: Governor seeks to assure Senate, where Democrats say action is a=20
bailout of nearly bankrupt utility.=20

By CARL INGRAM, Times Staff Writer=20

?????SACRAMENTO--Gov. Gray Davis sought to assure the state Senate on Tuesd=
ay=20
that his plan to save Southern California Edison from threatened financial=
=20
collapse would work without increasing customer rates.
?????Davis sent assurances to the Senate Energy Committee through his top=
=20
attorney, Barry Goode, who helped negotiate the controversial proposal with=
=20
the utility.
?????Senate Republicans have taken a wait-and-see attitude on the plan. But=
=20
they generally contend that the business of utilities belongs in the hands =
of=20
private enterprise.
?????But Democrats in both houses have charged that the deal between Democr=
at=20
Davis and Edison represents a state bailout of the nearly bankrupt=20
Rosemead-based utility. The analysis is shared by leading consumer activist=
s.
?????At the first in a series of Senate hearings on the package, which is=
=20
considered all but dead in its current form, Sen. Byron Sher (D-Palo Alto)=
=20
voiced concerns about political problems with the plan.
?????He asked Goode, who was flanked at a witness table by Edison executive=
s,=20
whether monthly bills of the utility's customers would increase as a=20
consequence of approval of the governor's package.
?????"Our models say there will be no additional impact on the ratepayers,"=
=20
Goode replied.
?????Other members appeared ready to pursue rate increase questions, but=20
Chairwoman Debra Bowen (D-Marina del Rey) cut them short. She said the issu=
e=20
would be fully examined at a later hearing.
?????To spare Edison from going into bankruptcy and to restore its=20
credit-worthiness, Davis and executives of the utility reached a complex=20
compromise in April, the centerpiece of which was a state purchase of=20
Edison's transmission grid