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Enron Mail |
thanks. who's jeff shields?
Paul Kaufman@ECT 03/05/2001 01:29 PM To: Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron, James D Steffes/NA/Enron@Enron, Susan J Mara/NA/Enron@ENRON, Harry Kingerski, Jeff Dasovich, Sandra McCubbin/NA/Enron@Enron cc: Subject: California FYI. ---------------------- Forwarded by Paul Kaufman/PDX/ECT on 03/05/2001 11:35 AM --------------------------- Jeff Shields 02/26/2001 09:46 AM To: Christopher F Calger/PDX/ECT@ECT, Laird Dyer/SF/ECT@ECT, Michael McDonald/SF/ECT@ECT, Michael Danielson/SF/ECT@ECT, Paul Kaufman/PDX/ECT@ECT cc: Subject: California I participated in a meeting on Friday afternoon in which staff of the California Energy Oversight Board and the Cal Energy Commission briefed representatives of the Governor's offices in Washington and Oregon on a variety of energy related matter. Prior to the meeting the California folks were given a list of topic areas and specific questions relating to the respective topics. I have a list of those questions that I will be happy to provide if your interested. Following are some notes regarding the discussion that took place. The first topic area was about the projected load/resource balance for this summer in California. The Californian's provided a one page listing of the various resources and anticipated loads that they expect to exist this summer. They expect Peak Demand + 7% Reserves to be 61,125 MW's. They have 59,209 in total "existing resources." They expect to have 3,050 MW off the existing resources off-line for much of the summer. The net short position is 4,966 MW. Governor Davis expects 5,053 MW of new generation. The Oversight Board and CEC believe this is probably going to be 2,500 MW at best. Many of the numbers were based on some suspect assumptions, including such things as an expectation that BPA will be in a position to make some exports to Cal this summer. A second topic area is air quality. Governor Davis has asked all of the local Air Quality management Districts to relax emission standards for this summer. The problem is that California has some rules requiring older plants to comply with BACT by 1-1-2002. Many plant owners have ordered the equipment to comply and are anticipating being down to install this. There is no single coordinator with reliable information on these planned outages. NW Power Planning Council staff told the Californian's that they should expect the NW Hydro system to be 4000 MW below normal through October, beyond that who knows. It was interesting to listen to the CEC explain how California has gone from a system that didn't allow long-term energy contracts to the current effort to secure long-term contracts with little capability to manage spot and short-term transactions. According to the Cal guys, the state expects to be severely energy constrained starting in June, even if they manage to have capacity. This is largely a function of gas supply. An economist from the Washington State Energy Office said the between 1997 and 2004 Washington has seen a 150 % increase in demand for natural gas. He said Oregon is up 110% in that same time frame. Apparently much of the supply to get through this winter is coming from storage which will have to be replenished, creating a conflict with anticipated generation capability this summer. California is starting to discuss an industrial curtailment program for this summer. Like so many of California's efforts, there is no coordinated effort around this program. The CEC said they are bracing for 20-100 hours of blackouts this summer. While this doesn't sound like a lot, I believe the blackouts at the end of the year were only about 5-10 hours ( this is a guess on my part based on what I recall from news reports). Jeff
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