Enron Mail

From:jeff.dasovich@enron.com
To:ginger.dernehl@enron.com
Subject:RE: Governor Chicken
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Mon, 22 Oct 2001 14:23:30 -0700 (PDT)

Thank you. I would have said "governor turkey." =20

-----Original Message-----
From: =09Dernehl, Ginger =20
Sent:=09Monday, October 22, 2001 4:15 PM
To:=09Alamo, Joseph; Allegretti, Daniel; Allen, Joe; Alvarez, Ramon; Arefie=
va, Maria; Assaf, Lisa; Barnes, Lynnette; Bellas, Kirsten; Benson, Eric; Bi=
nns, Darran; Bolton, Scott; Boston, Roy; Briggs, Tom; Buerger, Rubena; Burn=
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e; Warner, Geriann; Yeung, Charles; Yoho, Lisa
Subject:=09FW: Governor Chicken

Below is an article that may be of interest to you.

Ginger Dernehl
Administrative Coordinator
Global Government Affairs
Phone# 713-853-7751
Fax# 713-646-8160

-----Original Message-----
From: =09Schmidt, Ann M. =20
Sent:=09Monday, October 22, 2001 4:04 PM
To:=09Dernehl, Ginger
Subject:=09Governor Chicken

REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial)
Governor Chicken

10/22/2001
The Wall Street Journal
A18
(Copyright © 2001, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

The two politicians who've arguably benefited most from the national focus =
on war are both Californians -- Congressman Gary Condit and Governor Gray D=
avis. Too bad Mr. Davis is finding he still can't avoid his own chickens co=
ming home to roost.=20
Only now are the folks in Sacramento learning that their Governor's "soluti=
on" to the energy crisis has been a political sham. A combination of collap=
sing budget revenues, foolish spending and bad credit ratings threatens to =
plunge the state into a full-fledged financial crisis.
Governor Davis's chickens left the roost back in May 2000, when California'=
s botched scheme to deregulate electric power encountered a wicked price bu=
bble. Wholesale prices, which had been deregulated, shot up, while retail p=
rices, which were still regulated, didn't budge. This mismatch, along with =
other factors, generated huge supply disruptions and a first-class energy c=
risis.=20
The obvious response would have been to let retail rates rise with the mark=
et price. Mr. Davis said so himself in his now infamous observation that if=
he raised rates, the problem would be solved in 20 minutes. Mr. Davis pref=
erred to play the blame game, including a lot of whining that he had inheri=
ted the situation.=20
While the Governor complained, California's two largest utilities were push=
ed into insolvency and neighboring states endured the double whammy of havi=
ng their power sucked into California and seeing their electric rates shoot=
up. Californians suffered through rolling blackouts.=20
Finally, this past January -- eight months after the energy crisis began --=
the Governor responded: Retail rates were increased twice, and the state s=
tarted to purchase power directly from suppliers, using money from its gene=
ral fund. At the same time, the state negotiated contracts with suppliers a=
t prices that are now well above market prices and for terms as long as 20 =
years.=20
And then Mr. Davis got lucky. Although the forecast was for a summer of con=
tinued blackouts generated by a strong demand for power, the disaster faile=
d to materialize. Not only was the weather cooler than normal, but higher r=
ates produced immediate conservation; thus demand was moderate and power su=
fficient. Newsweek went out and hailed the Governor as a political Lazarus.=
=20
But now here come the chickens. It seems that almost one-quarter of Califor=
nia's budget revenues were provided by taxpayers with stock options and cap=
ital gains, mostly from Silicon Valley companies. When the dot-com industry=
started to implode, so did revenue projections -- to $12 billion this year=
, down from $18 billion last year. And this was before September 11 and the=
collapse in the Nasdaq market.=20
California would probably be able to absorb this revenue hit were it not fo=
r the still outstanding bills from the Governor's electric power fiasco. Co=
nsider the toll:=20
-- Somebody is going to have to pay for the $14 billion that the utilities =
owe to suppliers for power consumed before the state started buying electri=
city.=20
-- Somebody is going to have to repay the $12.5 billion bond issue that Cal=
ifornia hopes to float to replenish the money borrowed from its general fun=
d.=20
-- Somebody is going to have to pay for those expensive, long-term contract=
s that the state negotiated.=20
-- Somebody is going to have to repay the bridge loan of $4.3 billion that =
California got from the banks hoping to underwrite the bond offering. (If t=
his loan is not repaid by November 1, its interest rate jumps to 7% from 4%=
, resulting in an extra $250,000 in interest payments a day.)=20
Whether these bills are ultimately assumed by ratepayers or taxpayers, or s=
ome combination of the two, the impact on California's economy and its budg=
et will be dreadful. Observers are estimating a budget deficit of almost $1=
0 billion for next year.=20
As for Governor Davis, the problems of the "previous administration" are no=
w his own. And Californians know it. A recent statewide poll showed that mo=
st voters preferred the former mayor of Los Angeles, Richard Riordan, the l=
eading Republican challenger to Mr. Davis, by several points.=20
The Governor's response to the ever-worsening economic situation has been t=
ypical. He complains. He vetoes a few spending bills. He announces a $5 mil=
lion campaign to persuade Californians to help the local economy by staying=
in-state for their vacations. We expect to see a lot of chickens on surfbo=
ards.

Copyright ? 2000 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. =09