Enron Mail

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To:tdonoho@enron.com
Subject:[enerfaxdaily] Gas Continues to Slide
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Date:Tue, 2 Oct 2001 04:47:54 -0700 (PDT)

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Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE
Tuesday, October 2, 2001 No. 837
Visit our website at: <http://www.enerfax.com/<;=20
For Oil Prices & News write enerfaxgold-subscribe@egroups.com <http://enerf=
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PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES =20
Gulf/Eastern Region =20
| Agua Dulce | 1.61 |
| ANR SE | 1.68 |
| Carthage TG | 1.64 |
| Chicago Citygate | 1.76 |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore | 1.70 |
| Dominion South Point | 1.92 |
| Henry Hub | 1.77 |
| Houston Ship Channel | 1.71 |
| Katy Hub | 1.66 |
| NGPL LA Pool | 1.70 |
| NGPL - Midcontinent | 1.59 |
| NGPL STX | 1.66 |
| NGPL TX/OK | 1.67 |
| NNG Demarc. | 1.63 |
| Niagara | 1.84 |
| TCO IPP Pool | 1.93 |
| Tetco ELa | 1.71 |
| Tetco M-3 | 2.00 |
| Tetco STX | 1.65 |
| TGP Zone 0 | 1.64 |
| TGP Zone 1 500 Leg | 1.72 |
| TGT Zone SL | 1.73 |
| New York Citygate | 2.00 |
| Transco Station 65 | 1.79 |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 2.01 |
| Trunk ELa | 1.66 |
| Western Region =20
| California Border | 1.88 |
| El Paso Permian | 1.56 |
| El Paso San Juan | 1.49 |
| Waha Hub | 1.60 |
| Canadian/Rockies Region=20
| Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 1.88 |
| Dawn Hub/Union | 1.85 |
| Northwest Stanfield | 1.41 |
| Wyoming Pool | 1.38 |
| Opal/Kern River | 1.39 |
| PGT-Malin | 1.58 |
| Sumas | 1.34 |
Flow Date 10/02
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NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub=20
12 Month Strip 2.7658 -0.0074 =20
18 Month Strip 2.9331 +0.0095 =20
| Month | High | Low | Close | Change |
| NOV | 2.215 | 2.140 | 2.208 | -0.036 |
| DEC | 2.600 | 2.535 | 2.602 | -0.020 |
| JAN | 2.825 | 2.755 | 2.824 | -0.008 |
| FEB | 2.810 | 2.755 | 2.827 | -0.005 |
| MAR | 2.790 | 2.720 | 2.797 | -0.005 |
| APR | 2.730 | 2.670 | 2.735 | -0.007 |
| MAY | 2.745 | 2.720 | 2.768 | -0.004 |
| JUN | 2.805 | 2.770 | 2.818 | -0.004 |
| JUL | 2.855 | 2.810 | 2.868 | -0.001 |
| AUG | 2.910 | 2.855 | 2.906 | -0.001 |
| SEP | 2.890 | 2.850 | 2.906 | -0.001 |
| OCT | 2.915 | 2.850 | 2.931 | +0.004 |
-------------------------------------------------------------


Natural Gas Futures Continue Downward Spiral




Natural gas for November delivery on the NYMEX continued decline yester=
day, dropping $0.036 to $2.208 after hitting a new contract low of $2.14. T=
he December contract dipped $0.02 to $2.602 per MMBtu. Prices opened sharpl=
y lower, but managed to stage an erratic rally to finish near the highs of =
the day. The mild weather and diminishing storage availability continue to =
pressure a weak cash market which in turns is dragging down futures prices.=
As storage becomes less available more expensive, the differential between=
cash and futures could continue to widen. Early injection estimates for to=
morrows weekly AGA storage report range between 75 Bcf to 85 Bcf. For the s=
ame week last year, stocks rose 78 Bcf, and on average over the last 5 year=
s, stocks have gained about 70 Bcf. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad=
ministration reports last week's tally of 39 Heating Degree Days was 11 abo=
ve normal, but 5 less than forecast and 5 below the same week a year ago. N=
OAA said it expected 44 HDDs this week, or 6 above normal. In terms of cool=
ing degree days, NOAA said last week's tally of 18 was 13 less than the pre=
vious week, 7 below normal and 2 less than the same week a year ago. NOAA h=
as forecast 13 CDDs this week, which is 6 below normal. The latest NWS fore=
cast calls for normal temperatures for most of the nation, except for parts=
of the Midwest, Northeast and South Texas which will be below normal. Manu=
facturing activity, which consumes about 45% of all natural gas use, contra=
cted for a 14th straight month in September but showed signs of improvement=
. The National Association of Purchasing Management monthly index dipped on=
ly slightly in September, slipping to 47.0 in its worst slump since the 199=
0-1991 recession. A reading under 50 indicates that manufacturing activity,=
about one-sixth of the overall economy, is declining. The NAPM index has n=
ow held below that level since August 2000, but has been steadily improving=
from January's 10-year low of 41.2. Natural gas for next day delivery acro=
ss the US and Canada was generally off $0.05 $0.10 yesterday. Natural gas f=
or next day delivery at the Henry hub lost $0.05 to $1.77 per MMBtu.
-------------------------------------------------------------


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---------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES =20
| Month | COB | Change | PV | Change |
| NOV | 31.50 | +0.00 | 34.00 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 33.50 | +0.00 | 38.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 32.50 | +0.00 | 37.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 31.50 | +0.00 | 35.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 31.00 | +0.00 | 33.00 | +0.00 |
| APR | 32.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 36.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 42.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 52.00 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 57.00 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 44.50 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| OCT | 34.00 | +0.00 | 34.00 | +0.00 |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| NOV | 24.20 | +0.00 | 26.10 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 25.90 | +0.00 | 27.50 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 27.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 27.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 27.25 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| APR | 27.25 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 29.75 | +0.00 | 31.25 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 39.00 | +0.00 | 41.25 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 50.00 | +0.00 | 54.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 50.00 | +0.00 | 54.75 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 26.00 | +0.00 | 28.15 | +0.00 |
| OCT | 27.25 | +0.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 |
-----------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES
| Month | PJM | Change |
| NOV | 28.90 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 32.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 32.50 | +0.00 |
| APR | 32.50 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 33.75 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 44.25 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 32.00 | +0.00 |
| OCT | 32.00 | +0.00 |
------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas NYMEX Volume
01NOV 12,870
01DEC 5,270
02JAN 4,089
02FEB 1,931=20
02MAR 2,655
02APR 1,205
02MAY 1,359
02JUN 655
02JLY 1,216
02AUG 705
02SEP 237
02OCT 832
02NOV 411
02DEC 1,175
03JAN 889
03FEB 38
03MAR 52
03APR 55 =20
03MAY 15
03JUN 461
03JLY 417
03AUG 2=20
03SEP 2
03OCT 2
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Natural Gas Options=20
| | Closing | Days | Implied ATM |
| Month | Price | Left | Volatility |
| NOV | 2.244 | 29 | 74.06% |
| DEC | 2.622 | 61 | 65.79% |
-----------------------------------------------------------



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---------------------------------------------------
PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
| | High | Low | Average |
| | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh |
| Cinergy | 23.55 | 20.50 | 22.90 |
| ECAR | 23.95 | 21.95 | 23.05 |
| ERCOT | 18.50 | 17.50 | 18.25 |
| Entergy | 18.70 | 15.50 | 18.05 |
| TVA | 24.30 | 21.45 | 22.80 |
| ComEd | 22.00 | 20.50 | 21.55 |
| Nepool | 37.00 | 36.25 | 36.50 |
| PJM West | 26.40 | 25.40 | 26.20 |
| Main | 23.25 | 21.75 | 22.55 |
| MAPP | 22.00 | 18.50 | 19.65 |
| Palo Verde | 32.00 | 27.75 | 29.60 |
| Mid C | 31.00 | 22.00 | 25.15 |
| COB | 29.00 | 26.75 | 27.80 |
| 4 Corners | 30.00 | 27.00 | 28.50 |
| Mead | 32.00 | 30.50 | 31.00 |
| NP 15 | 32.00 | 27.25 | 29.05 |
| SP 15 | 32.00 | 27.50 | 29.10 |
---------------------------------------------
Two California WindPower Projects Commence Operating

SeaWest WindPower and PG&E National Energy Group have announced that th=
e 44.4 MW Mountain View Power Partners I and the 22.2 MW Mountain View Powe=
r Partners II wind energy projects near Palm Springs, California have begun=
commercial operation. The projects are located near the San Gorgonio Pass.=
PG&E NEG has contracted with SeaWest for the operation and maintenance of=
the wind units. The Mountain View I & II projects utilize 111 Mitsubishi H=
eavy Industries MHI MWT 600 kW wind turbines. The turbines are mounted on 5=
0 and 60-meter tubular towers. The California Department of Water Resources=
will purchase the entire output of the two wind projects, under a long-ter=
m contract. In addition to the Mountain View projects, PG&E NEG owns the Ma=
dison Windpower Project in Madison, NY. =20
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-------------------------------------------------------
Today's Power Bulletins
* Enron Shares Rise 4% on India Stake Sale Talk
* S&P Assigns Arizona Public Service BBB Rating
* S&P Rates Detroit Edison Bonds A-
* Sempra Energy Files Shelf for $2 Billion in Debt and Equity
* PanCanadian and Fording to Buy Back Shares
* Reliant Begins Building 800 MW Power Plant in Choctaw County, Mississippi
* Moody's May Still Raise FirstEnergy Units Ratings
* Siemens Signs Memorandum of Understanding with Nextek Power Systems
* Consumers Energy Customers Can Now Sign Up for Green Power Pilot Program
* Spire Corporation Installs 150 kW of Solar Power Systems on 3 Chicago Mus=
eums as Part of Public-Private Partnership
* California Retailers Association Supports PG&E Reorganization Plan
* Reliant Energy Minnegasco Announces No Surprise Bill Pilot Program for Re=
sidential Customers
* ComEd Rates Drop $135 Million October 1st
-------------------------------------------------------


Tata Power and Enron Negotiating Dabhol Sale



Tata Power Company, India's largest private utility, is in preliminary =
talks with Enron to buy its stake in the troubled $2.9 billion Dabhol Power=
project. Tata Power plans to begin final negotiations with Enron after con=
sultants have submitted a value report. But, Tata Power is already demandin=
g Enron reduce its asking price. Indian financial institutions, which have =
lent around $1.4 billion to the project, are coordinating the efforts to fi=
nd a buyer. Enron has a 65% stake in the project, Indian state utility Maha=
rashtra State Electricity Board owns 15%and General Electric and Bechtel ea=
ch own 10%.=20
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-------------------------------------------------------
Todays Gas Bulletins
* e-Acumen Launches WeatherBook, Breakthrough Weather Risk Management Platf=
orm with Industry-Leading Analytics
* Southern California Gas Files $350 Million Shelf Offering
* Falcon Gas Storage and Emera Form Greyhawk Gas Storage Company
* EEX Indefinitely Shelves Bond Sale, Blames Market
* Republicans Trying to Attach Energy Legislation to Defense Spending Bill =
While Democrats Opposing Move Use Control of Senate to Fight It
* Abraxas Closes Successful Offer for Grey Wolf Exploration
* Samson Completes $80 Million Acquisitions in East Texas from Clayton Will=
iams Energy
* Northern Border Pipeline Completes Project 2000
-----------------------------------------------------



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Restart of Dabhol Power Project Proposed



A panel established by the Indian state of Maharashtra has suggested th=
at if all parties involved are willing to absorb the costs, the 2,184 MW Da=
bhol power project could be re-started. The panel suggested that if all the=
shareholders were willing to absorb the costs, the tariff on Dabhol's powe=
r could be reduced. The panel has also proposed that Enron, GE and Bechtel =
absorb a huge loss on their investment in the project. After a acrimonious =
dispute with the local utility, Enron had said it would like to abandon the=
project. The Maharashtra State Electricity Board, which had initially cont=
racted to purchase all the power from Dabhol plant, subsequently defaulted =
on payments because it didn't need that much power and claimed it was too e=
xpensive. Enron claimed the utility was in violation of its contractual obl=
igations. Dabhol took the dispute to the International Court of Arbitration=
in London, but Enron has said it would settle out of court if it could rec=
over its costs.=20
--------------------------------------------------------


Ziff Energy Group presents the





North American Gas Strategies Conference





November 5 7 Calgary=20



The Future of Western Canada's
Gas Supply: Stretched to the Limit?
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Join us for frank, in-depth discussion on the future of the Western Canada =
Sedimentary Basin. Top Canadian & U.S. gas industry leaders will address ur=
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Day 1: Gas Outlook 2002: Supply, Pipelines, Markets, Price Outlook
Day 2: Western Canadian Gas Supply Featuring speakers such as:
Ed Weber, Chairman, Reliability Assessment, ERC Don Albon, Senior Vice Pre=
sident Aquila Capital & Trade
Ken Vollman, Chairman & CEO National Energy Board
Terry Schmidtke, GM Great Plains Business Unit PanCanadian=20
Ted Bogle, VP Exploration Talisman Energy
Ken Sinclair, Chair Coalbed Methane Association
Graeme Phipps, VP Exploration - Petro-Canada
Nellie Cournoyea, Chair & CEO Inuvialuit Regional Corporation

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--------------------------------------------------------


Congress to Hold Hearing on Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline




Congress plans to consider a multi-billion dollar pipeline project to t=
ransport natural gas from Alaska today. A consortium of oil companies last =
week released a gloomy report on the project's economics. BP, Phillips Petr=
oleum and Exxon Mobil unveiled a preliminary study on the project last week=
that showed smaller investment returns than previously estimated. The proj=
ect is uneconomical at this point, but despite the study the project has no=
t been shelved. The consortium will likely make a decision on the project b=
y the and of the year. Depending on the route, it may cost between $15 bill=
ion and $17 billion. The 2000-mile southern route parallels the TAPS to Fai=
rbanks, then turns to follow the Alaska Highway through the Yukon Territory=
and British Columbia, connecting with existing pipelines in Alberta. The 1=
,650-mile northern route runs east from the North Slope to the Mackenzie Ri=
ver delta, then south along the Mackenzie valley into Alberta. It would be =
cheaper, but would have to cross the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge. The S=
enate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources will hold a hearing today o=
n legislation that may be needed to move pipeline construction forward. The=
hearing will focus on ways the federal government can help improve projec=
t economics. The consortium has requested fast-track approval of FERC permi=
ts, but no direct federal subsidies for construction costs. The Bush admini=
stration says the project must be independently feasible and not rely on su=
bsidies. Natural gas from Alaska could make up 10% of nations energy suppli=
es by 2015, according to a study from the Interstate Natural Gas Supply Ass=
ociation of America.=20
--------------------------------------------------------


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----------------------------------------------------------


California Has a Plan in Case Bond Sale Delayed




Californias controller says that the state is on solid economic ground =
and is not facing a fiscal emergency, even if a proposed bond sale is postp=
oned. The state is attempting to issue $12.5 billion in bonds to repay the =
general fund for $6.1 billion spent on buying power for Pacific Gas & Elect=
ric and Southern California Edison. The bond sale is being held up because =
state regulators have not approved the designation of a portion of the util=
ities rates to repay the bonds. Last month, the state sold $5.7 billion in =
revenue anticipation notes to boost the general fund and provide a buffer u=
ntil the bonds can be sold. Since revenue anticipation notes must be repaid=
by the end of the fiscal year, California could issue revenue anticipation=
warrants to repay the notes if the bonds are not issued before. The state =
treasurer has warned that the states budget deficit could rise to $9.3 bill=
ion by the beginning of fiscal year 2003 if the bonds are not issued by the=
n and state lawmakers would have to consider raising taxes or cutting spend=
ing. =20
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Duke to Discuss Westcoast Energy Acquisition=20



Fred Fowler, president of Duke Energy Gas Transmission Group, and Davi=
d Hauser, senior vice president and for Duke Energy Corporation will lead a=
discussion and answer analysts' questions at 4 PM EDT regarding the acquis=
ition Westcoast Energy Webcast may be accessed in the investors' section o=
f the company's Website. Also, one may listen to the conference by calling =
800/967-7184 and using confirmation code 686310. International callers sho=
uld use 719/457-2633. =20
-----------------------------------------------------





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Was recently organized to offer specialized natural gas storage services to=
marketers and end users servicing the upper Midwest and Northeast market r=
egions along the major transmission systems in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky,=
and Michigan. PGSMI has 10 bcf of potential working capacity which will of=
fer service along TXG, ANR, Midwestern, and is currently evaluating for pur=
chase another 21 bcf of potential working capacity which can be serviced by=
these and other systems in the region. PGSMI also explores for natural gas=
in the Gulf Coast region through a wholly owned subsidiary. Progas intends=
to go public through a route of private industry offerings, and an IPO or =
registration. For more information on services or the company mail to: gast=
orage@aol.com or for AOL mail to gastorage@aol.com <http://gastorage@aol.co=
m/<; web site currently under construction at: <http://www.progas.net/wip<;.

The company's executive and administrative office is located in Abilene, Te=
xas with storage operations in Owensboro, KY and exploration operations in =
Corpus Christi, TX.

Progas Storage Services, Inc =20
8610 S. Hwy 277
Abilene, TX 79606

Ph 915 698 3699
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--------------------------------------------------------


Kinder Morgan Earnings




Kinder Morgan says earnings are on track for the 3rd quarter and the ye=
ar. Wall Street analysts expect KMI's 3rd-quarter earnings per share to ran=
ge from $0.40 $0.50 per share. For the year, KM is expected to earn between=
$1.85 - $2.00 per share with an average of $1.89. Shares of KM were down $=
0.72, or 1.5% to $48.49.=20
-------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 dropped 39.55 points to 6799.01
The CRB Index decreased 1.10 points to 189.39
The US Dollar declined 0.10 points to 113.08
The Dow slipped 10.73 points to 8836.83
The S&P 500 dipped 2.39 points to 1038.55
The Nasdaq was down 18.34 points to 1480.46
November NYMEX Crude Oil lost 0.15 to 23.28
Canadian-US Exchange slipped .0001 to 1.5789
-------------------------------------------------------
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<http://www.caminus.com/<;
<http://www.progas.net/wip<;
<http://www.e-acumen.com/knowledge_powerview.html<
http://risk.sungard.com/energy <http://risk.sungard.com/ENERGY<;
<http://www.ziffenergyconferences.com/<;
http://www.NewEnergyAssoc.com/html/mptrial_version.html. <http://www.newene=
rgyassoc.com/html/mptrial_version.html.<

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