Enron Mail

From:enerfaxdaily@enerfax.com
To:tdonoho@enron.com
Subject:[enerfaxdaily] Natural Gas Futures Up Slightly on Short-Covering
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Tue, 25 Sep 2001 22:49:59 -0700 (PDT)

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Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE
Wednesday, September 26, 2001 No. 833
Visit our website at: <http://www.enerfax.com/<;=20
For Oil Prices & News write enerfaxgold-subscribe@egroups.com <http://enerf=
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or go to <http://www.enerfaxgold.com/<;




PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES =20
Gulf/Eastern Region =20
| Agua Dulce | 1.86 |
| ANR SE | 1.91 |
| Carthage TG | 1.90 |
| Chicago Citygate | 1.97 |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore | 1.92 |
| Dominion South Point | 2.22 |
| Henry Hub | 1.95 |
| Houston Ship Channel | 1.97 |
| Katy Hub | 1.92 |
| NGPL - Midcontinent | 1.82 |
| NGPL STX | 1.88 |
| NGPL TX/OK | 1.89 |
| NNG Demarc. | 1.88 |
| Niagara | 2.19 |
| Sonat Tier 1 | 1.92 |
| TCO IPP Pool | 2.23 |
| Tetco ELa | 1.98 |
| Tetco M-3 | 2.30 |
| Tetco STX | 1.94 |
| TGP Zone 0 | 1.90 |
| TGP Zone 1 500 Leg | 2.00 |
| TGT Zone SL | 1.94 |
| New York Citygate | 2.31 |
| Transco Station 65 | 2.06 |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 2.32 |
| Trunk ELa | 1.87 |
| Western Region =20
| California Border | 1.80 |
| El Paso Permian | 1.71 |
| El Paso San Juan | 1.30 |
| Waha Hub | 1.78 |
| Canadian/Rockies Region=20
| Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 2.55 |
| Dawn Hub/Union | 2.16 |
| Northwest Stanfield | 1.30 |
| Wyoming Pool | 1.22 |
| Opal/Kern River | 1.19 |
| PGT-Malin | 1.45 |
| Sumas | 1.29 |
Flow Date 09/26=20
---------------------------------------------


And now there's FASB 133. =20


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--------------------------------------------
NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub=20
12 Month Strip 2.7447 +0.0504 =20
18 Month Strip 2.9106 +0.0583 =20
| Month | High | Low | Close | Change |
| OCT | 1.970 | 1.880 | 1.925 | +0.015 |
| NOV | 2.350 | 2.260 | 2.300 | +0.010 |
| DEC | 2.730 | 2.650 | 2.690 | +0.030 |
| JAN | 2.930 | 2.855 | 2.895 | +0.042 |
| FEB | 2.925 | 2.860 | 2.893 | +0.048 |
| MAR | 2.885 | 2.820 | 2.860 | +0.057 |
| APR | 2.820 | 2.760 | 2.803 | +0.063 |
| MAY | 2.850 | 2.810 | 2.828 | +0.063 |
| JUN | 2.890 | 2.850 | 2.880 | +0.065 |
| JUL | 2.940 | 2.890 | 2.926 | +0.067 |
| AUG | 2.975 | 2.930 | 2.968 | +0.067 |
| SEP | 2.980 | 2.930 | 2.968 | +0.063 |
-------------------------------------------------------------


Natural Gas Futures Up Slightly on Short-Covering=20




Natural gas for October delivery on the NYMEX ended the day up $0.015 t=
o $1.915 as the market awaits the AGA storage data due out today. The Novem=
ber contract gained $0.025 to $2.30 per MMBtu. The market managed to recove=
r partially from Monday's sell-off in active pre expiration trading. Much o=
f the gain was due to a late session short-covering rally, and short term t=
raders expect a nominally higher open today. The locals are still wanting t=
o push prices lower to a target of $1.80. There is just a negative bias to =
natural gas, as well as all the energies right now. There is just no demand=
, and the long term weather forecasts are not promising. The October contra=
ct expires today and has lost 25% over the past 6 sessions. NYMEX continues=
to hold abbreviated floor trading sessions this week. The natural gas open=
outcry sessions runs from 10:30 AM to 1:45 PM EDT, except today when the c=
lose will be extended until 2:45 PM to allow trading after the release of A=
GA storage data about 2:00 PM. Look for and an injection of 70 - 80 Bcf to=
be reported for last week. A year ago inventories rose 77 Bcf, and on aver=
age over the last 5 years, stocks have gained about 72 Bcf this week. Total=
inventories of 2.757 Tcf are 432 Bcf, or 19% higher than a year ago, and 2=
48 Bcf above the 5-year average. NOAA expects 25 CDDs for this week, which =
would be 7 below normal and 9 below a year ago, and could mean another larg=
e build in next week's AGA report relative to the year-ago figure, particul=
arly with spreads to winter still encouraging injections. However, storage =
is about 87% full and will soon begin filling up. The latest National Weath=
er Service forecast for early next month calls for below normal weather alo=
ng the East Coast, extending into East Texas, and above normal from eastern=
California into the upper Plains. Natural gas for next day delivery across=
the US and Canada was generally flat to down $0.05 per MMBtu yesterday. Na=
tural gas for next day delivery at the Henry hub dipped $0.05 to a new 22-m=
onth low of $1.94 per MMBtu.=20
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---------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES =20
| Month | COB | Change | PV | Change |
| OCT | 33.00 | +0.00 | 31.50 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 31.50 | +0.00 | 34.00 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 33.50 | +0.00 | 38.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 32.50 | +0.00 | 37.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 31.50 | +0.00 | 35.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 31.00 | +0.00 | 33.00 | +0.00 |
| APR | 32.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 36.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 42.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 52.00 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 57.00 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 44.50 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| OCT | 24.15 | +0.00 | 25.85 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 24.20 | +0.00 | 26.10 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 25.90 | +0.00 | 27.50 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 27.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 27.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 27.25 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| APR | 27.25 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 29.75 | +0.00 | 31.25 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 39.00 | +0.00 | 41.25 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 50.00 | +0.00 | 54.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 50.00 | +0.00 | 54.75 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 26.00 | +0.00 | 28.15 | +0.00 |
-----------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES
| Month | PJM | Change |
| OCT | 29.70 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 28.90 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 32.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 32.50 | +0.00 |
| APR | 32.50 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 33.75 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 44.25 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 32.00 | +0.00 |
------------------------------------------------------------


FERC ALJ Postpones California Deadline



A FERC ALJ has postponed until March 8th the deadline for issuing a rep=
ort on whether California is entitled to refunds of $9 billion for wholesal=
e power purchases when prices soared in the past year. The judge abandoned =
his earlier plan to issue a final report in November. The report's recommen=
dations will be considered by FERC commissioners for any further action. La=
st July, the commissioners ordered a 45-day mediation period for California=
and the power suppliers to negotiate a compromise. But the clock will not =
start ticking for that 45-day period on December 7th, when all evidence has=
been submitted by the California ISO and the California PX, the judge said=
. He extended the deadline for finishing the case after agreeing to give th=
e California ISO, and the now-defunct California PX more time to analyze ma=
rket prices during the disputed refund period. The extension is needed by t=
he California ISO to use a sophisticated computer model to analyze and calc=
ulate wholesale power prices from October 2000 through January 2001.=20
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--------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas Options=20
| | Closing | Days | Implied ATM |
| Month | Price | Left | Volatility |
| NOV | 2.300 | 32 | 70.45% |
| DEC | 2.690 | 64 | 63.66% |
-----------------------------------------------------------



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---------------------------------------------------
PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
| | High | Low | Average |
| | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh |
| Cinergy | 17.90 | 16.00 | 17.70 |
| ECAR | 20.30 | 18.95 | 19.80 |
| ERCOT | 19.00 | 17.75 | 18.00 |
| Entergy | 17.40 | 15.50 | 16.95 |
| TVA | 21.70 | 20.15 | 21.10 |
| ComEd | 19.00 | 17.60 | 18.10 |
| Nepool | 41.50 | 40.75 | 41.25 |
| PJM West | 25.30 | 25.00 | 25.15 |
| Main | 18.50 | 17.40 | 17.95 |
| MAPP | 17.25 | 15.50 | 16.75 |
| Palo Verde | 29.50 | 25.50 | 26.90 |
| Mid C | 20.00 | 18.50 | 19.25 |
| COB | 21.50 | 19.75 | 20.55 |
| 4 Corners | 27.00 | 26.00 | 26.50 |
| Mead | 28.50 | 26.00 | 27.10 |
| NP 15 | 27.50 | 23.00 | 24.30 |
| SP 15 | 27.50 | 23.50 | 25.05 |
----------------------------------------------
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-------------------------------------------------------
Today's Power Bulletins
* Jim Walter Resources Says 13 Dead in Alabama Mine Blast
* FERC ALJ Says Pacific Northwest Municipal Utilities and Wholesale Power B=
uyers Not Entitled to Any Refunds for Sharp Jump in Wholesale Electricity P=
rices Earlier this Year
* Brazil Nuclear Plant Accident Discovered by Media
* S&P Assigns 'A-' Debt Rating to TECO Energy's $200 Million Senior Unsecur=
ed Notes
* Federal Reserve to Reduce Interest Rates for 9th Time this Year When It M=
eets Next Week
* Pepco Restores Power to Thousands After Maryland Tornado Wreaks Havoc
* Calpine Breaks Ground on 550 MW Columbia Energy Center in Calhoun County,=
SC
* Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Market Charged for Rapid Growth Reports N=
ew Study
* PNM and Sempra Energy Join Industry-Wide Scholarship Fund for Children Of=
Attack Victims
* ANP Marketing Company Licenses Allegro Applications
-------------------------------------------------------


TransCanada Says It Is Not Target



TransCanada Pipelines says it is unlikely that Duke will launch a take-=
over bid for it after buying Westcoast for $8.5 billion last week. TransCan=
ada contends that it is worth almost 3 times as much as Westcoast, and due =
to its size, could command a premium. With the Westcoast acquisition, Duke =
will own stakes in pipelines delivering about 30% of the US natural gas imp=
orted from Canada. TransCanada has more than 23,000 miles of pipelines tran=
sporting Western Canadian volumes to Ontario and the Northeast. Pipelines a=
re considered to be key assets because it has become more difficult gain re=
gulatory approval and the expense and time associated with their constru
--------------------------------------------------------
Today's Gas Bulletins
* New FERC Chairman Pat Wood to Run 1st Hearing as Head of Commission Today
* Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Focuses on Securing Nation'=
s Energy Infrastructure
* TradeSpark Resumes Normal Electronic Trading of All Energy Commodities
* TransCanada Says It Is Not Takeover Target
* Canadian Rigs Drilling Down 13 in Past Week
* Federal Court Dismisses Southern Union Claims for Lost Profits Against So=
uthwest Gas; Summary Judgment Ruling Favors ONEOK
* New Stuart Energy President & CEO Outlines Mission to Create, Develop and=
Market Hydrogen Solutions Throughout World
* Williams Says Firm Transportation Rates to Drop Up to 36.5% for All Origi=
nal Shippers on Kern River Effective October 1st
--------------------------------------------------------


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--------------------------------------------------------


Devon, Mitchell Deal Questionable




The recent drop in Devon Energy's share price could place an obstacle in=
the path of its planned acquisition of Mitchell Energy. Last month, Devon =
agreed to acquire Mitchell for $31 per share in cash and 0.585 of its own s=
hares for each Mitchell share, in a deal then valued at about $3.1 billion.=
The companies agreed that the deal should be tax-free for Mitchell stockho=
lders. But, to qualify for tax-free status, the cash component cannot excee=
d 60% of the total offer. Yesterday, Devon's stock fell $0.17 to $32.93 per=
share, down from about $50 just before the Mitchell deal was struck. Mitch=
ell's shares were also down yesterday, dipping $1.88 to $47.07, while Devon=
's offer for Mitchell was worth $50.26 per share, with the cash component n=
ow making up about 62% of the value. Both companies remain committed to the=
deal, but realize that it could face problems unless Devon's stock price i=
ncreases by the 4th quarter when the deal is expected to close.=20
--------------------------------------------------------


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November 5 - 7 Calgary=20



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Day 2: Western Canadian Gas Supply Featuring speakers such as:
Ed Weber, Chairman, Reliability Assessment, ERC Don Albon, Senior Vice Pre=
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Ken Vollman, Chairman & CEO - National Energy Board
Terry Schmidtke, GM Great Plains Business Unit - PanCanadian=20
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Ken Sinclair, Chair - Coalbed Methane Association
Graeme Phipps, VP Exploration - Petro-Canada
Nellie Cournoyea, Chair & CEO - Inuvialuit Regional Corporation

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the offshore wind sites are developed as planned, the power generated over=
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----------------------------------------------------------
FERC ALJ Recommends Denial of Pacific Northwest Power Refunds
=20
A FERC Administrative Law Judge has recommended that the full commissio=
n deny the $1.9 billion in refunds requested by Pacific Northwest municipal=
utilities and wholesale electricity buyers for power purchases last spring=
when prices jumped sharply higher. The ALJ pointed out that the Pacific No=
rthwest market is very different than the California market, because Califo=
rnia state law prohibited utilities from passing higher power costs on to c=
ustomers, while the market worked properly in the Pacific Northwest when su=
pplies were tight. The Northwestern states rely heavily on hydroelectric po=
wer and suffered a draught situation which coincided with a shortage of ele=
ctricity supplies throughout the Western US. The ALJ contends that the Paci=
fic Northwest experienced a sudden and acute drop in available supply, and =
in that situation prices rose dramatically, as should be normal. Of the tot=
al $1.9 billion sought in refunds, California has laid claim to almost $1.5=
billion. =20
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-------------------------------------------------------


Governor Expected to Order Lawmakers Back=20




In attempt to prevent the bankruptcy of Southern California Edison, the=
governor is poised to order lawmakers to return to Sacramento, after they =
adjourned last week without voting on a rescue plan for the utility. The go=
vernor is in the process of developing a proposal and is consulting with st=
ate senators and Assembly members to find an acceptable compromise between =
the two legislative houses. The new plan will probably allow SCE to sell be=
tween $2.5 and $2.9 billion in bonds which would be secured by existing cha=
rges to about 20% of its biggest commercial consumers. California's Senate =
has approved a version of the bill, voting for $2.5 billion in bond sales, =
but secured by the rates of 4,000 of SCE's largest customers. In addition, =
the state would have the option to purchase the utility's transmission line=
s at book value. SCE argues that the plan would not prevent its bankruptcy.=
The Assembly version increased the bond sale to $2.9 billion and spread th=
e costs over 136,000 business customers. In addition, the lawmakers gave th=
e state the option to buy the transmission grid at double the book value or=
at market value, whichever is less, and a provision to reinstate the retai=
l power market. However, when the Senate received the amended bill, it decl=
ined to vote on the measure, adjourning for the year instead. The governor =
is expected to limit the topics under discussion by the legislature when th=
ey return, in order to prevent lawmakers from discussing bills unrelated to=
the rescue plan.
-----------------------------------------------------


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--------------------------------------------------------
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Was recently organized to offer specialized natural gas storage services to=
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chase another 21 bcf of potential working capacity which can be serviced by=
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--------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 gained 40.04 points to 6702.01
The CRB Index decreased 1.53 points to 189.10
The US Dollar declined 0.71 points to 112.13
The Dow rose 56.11 points to 8659.97
The S&P 500 climbed 8.82 points to 1012.27
The Nasdaq was up 2.24 points to 1501.64
September NYMEX Crude Oil fell 0.20 to 21.80
Canadian-US Exchange rose .0020 to 1.5712
-------------------------------------------------------
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