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Enerfax Daily NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE Tuesday, June 5, 2001 No. 754 Visit our website at: http://www.enerfax.com, if you would like to receive our daily free email write Enerfax-subscribe@egroups.com. For Oil Prices & News write enerfaxgold-subscribe@egroups.com or go to http://www.enerfaxgold.com Please view in a fixed-width font such as Courier. GAS FUTURES Henry Hub 12 Month Strip 4.2308 +0.1342 18 Month Strip 4.1707 +0.1256 | Month | High | Low | Close | Change | | JUL | 4.110 | 3.960 | 4.069 | +0.139 | | AUG | 4.190 | 4.060 | 4.151 | +0.142 | | SEP | 4.210 | 4.150 | 4.188 | +0.142 | | OCT | 4.250 | 4.000 | 4.222 | +0.143 | | NOV | 4.410 | 4.350 | 4.387 | +0.143 | | DEC | 4.575 | 4.515 | 4.552 | +0.143 | | JAN | 4.615 | 4.615 | 4.620 | +0.143 | | FEB | 4.500 | 4.385 | 4.495 | +0.135 | | MAR | 4.340 | 4.290 | 4.325 | +0.135 | | APR | 3.970 | 3.930 | 3.955 | +0.115 | | MAY | 3.875 | 3.770 | 3.880 | +0.115 | | JUN | 3.920 | 3.900 | 3.925 | +0.115 | PHYSICAL GAS PRICES | Gulf/Eastern Region | | | Agua Dulce | 3.83 | | ANR SE | 3.84 | | Carthage TG | 3.90 | | Chicago Citygate | 3.95 | | Columbia Gulf Onshore | 3.90 | | Dominion TTT South(CNG S. Point) | 4.15 | | Henry Hub | 3.95 | | Houston Ship Channel | 4.02 | | Katy Hub | 3.99 | | NGPL - Midcontinent | 3.82 | | NGPL STX | 3.82 | | NGPL TX/OK | 3.89 | | Niagara | 4.13 | | Sonat Tier 1 | 3.87 | | TCO IPP Pool | 4.12 | | Tetco ELa | 3.85 | | Tetco M-3 | 4.23 | | Tetco STX | 3.76 | | TGP Zone 0 | 3.81 | | TGP Zone 1 | 3.80 | | TGT Zone SL | 3.90 | | New York Citygate | 4.24 | | Transco Station 65 | 3.95 | | Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 4.24 | | Trunk ELa | 3.83 | | Western Region | | | California Border | 9.26 | | El Paso Permian | 4.05 | | El Paso San Juan | 2.84 | | Waha Hub | 3.60 | | Canadian/Rockies Region | | | Nova/Aeco (in C$/GJ) | 4.87 | | Dawn Hub/Union | 4.12 | | Northwest Stanfield | 3.36 | | Wyoming Pool | 2.85 | | Opal | 2.88 | | PGT-Malin | 3.60 | | Sumas | 3.32 | POWER FUTURES | Month | COB | Change | PV | Change | | JUL | 245.00 | -15.00 | 265.00 | -35.00 | | AUG | 285.00 | -15.00 | 305.00 | -35.00 | | SEP | 185.00 | -20.00 | 182.00 | -21.00 | | OCT | 175.00 | -5.00 | 122.00 | -13.00 | | NOV | 120.00 | -30.00 | 87.00 | -7.00 | | DEC | 165.00 | -5.00 | 94.00 | -6.00 | | JAN | 145.00 | +0.00 | 70.00 | +0.00 | | FEB | 130.00 | +0.00 | 60.00 | +0.00 | | MAR | 85.00 | +0.00 | 60.00 | +0.00 | | APR | 62.00 | +0.00 | 55.00 | +0.00 | | MAY | 62.00 | +0.00 | 55.00 | +0.00 | | JUN | 62.00 | +0.00 | 75.00 | +0.00 | | Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change | | JUL | 91.50 | +3.50 | 86.00 | +3.00 | | AUG | 91.50 | +3.50 | 75.00 | +1.00 | | SEP | 43.50 | +4.50 | 37.00 | +1.00 | | OCT | 37.25 | +1.25 | 35.00 | +0.50 | | NOV | 37.25 | +1.25 | 35.00 | +0.50 | | DEC | 37.25 | +1.25 | 35.00 | +0.50 | | JAN | 39.75 | +1.25 | 38.25 | +1.25 | | FEB | 39.75 | +1.25 | 38.25 | +1.25 | | MAR | 36.25 | +0.75 | 35.25 | +0.75 | | APR | 36.25 | +0.75 | 35.25 | +0.75 | | MAY | 41.50 | +1.50 | 40.00 | +1.00 | | JUN | 53.50 | +1.50 | 50.50 | +1.50 | POWER FUTURES | Month | PJM | Change | | JUL | 83.00 | +0.00 | | AUG | 73.50 | +0.50 | | SEP | 39.75 | +0.50 | | OCT | 36.75 | +0.75 | | NOV | 36.75 | +0.75 | | DEC | 36.75 | +0.75 | | JAN | 42.00 | +0.00 | | FEB | 42.00 | +0.00 | | MAR | 37.75 | +0.25 | | APR | 37.75 | +0.25 | | MAY | 40.75 | +0.25 | | JUN | 51.25 | +0.00 | NATURAL GAS OPTIONS | | Closing | Days | Implied ATM | | Month | Price | Left | Volatility | | JUL | 4.069 | 23 | 60.74% | | AUG | 4.151 | 53 | 59.62% | | SEP | 4.188 | 86 | 57.51% | | OCT | 4.222 | 114 | 58.03% | | NOV | 4.387 | 145 | 58.96% | | DEC | 4.552 | 177 | 58.44% | PHYSICAL POWER PRICES | | High | Low | Average | | | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh | | Cinergy | 23.00 | 20.00 | 21.40 | | ECAR | 24.30 | 21.95 | 23.20 | | ERCOT | 39.00 | 38.00 | 38.50 | | Entergy | 31.00 | 30.25 | 30.65 | | TVA | 29.45 | 28.40 | 28.95 | | ComEd | 23.00 | 21.00 | 22.25 | | PJM West | 26.75 | 24.75 | 25.80 | | Main | 23.00 | 19.50 | 21.85 | | MAPP | 23.00 | 19.50 | 21.75 | | Palo Verde | 140.00 | 111.00 | 128.95 | | Mid C | 100.00 | 98.00 | 99.75 | | COB | 105.00 | 100.00 | 102.50 | | 4 Corners | 126.00 | 124.00 | 125.00 | | Mead | 140.00 | 145.00 | 142.50 | | NP 15 | n/a | n/a | 113.05 | | SP 15 | 118.00 | 95.00 | 107.50 | _______________________________________________ Today's Power Bulletins * Electricity Rationing Hammers Brazilian Residents * Peabody Energy Expects $15 Million 2nd Quarter Pre-Tax Gain * Public Service Enterprise Group to Sell Up to 430 MW to California Department of Water Resources for 10 Years * Capstone Turbine Shares Tumble Over 8% on Concern Company's Microturbines Have Not Developed as Quickly as Expected * Lenders to Enron's Troubled Dabhol Power Company Meet in Singapore Today * Governor Says Californians Responding to Energy Conservation Pleas * Virginia Approves AEP's 765-kV Transmission Line More than 10 Years After It First Sought Permission from State Corporation Commission * Capstone-Energized Hybrid Electric Bus Debuts in China * Sithe Files Response with FERC to NSTAR Complaint * Merrill Lynch Sees Continued Strong Growth in Energy Sector * Truequote.com Posts EnronOnline Prices on Its System * PacifiCorp to Acquire 50 MW from New SeaWest WindPower Facility; Fulfills Merger Commitment to Invest in Renewable Power * Mirant Begins Commercial Operations at 298 MW Natural Gas Fired Zeeland, Michigan Power Plant * Citizen Power Appeals FERC Decision to Ignore Its Authority Under Federal Power Act More stories with bulletins at http://www.enerfactsdaily.com ____________________________________________________ GET REAL about energy risk management with KWI In today's fast moving energy markets you need to be able to manage risk in real time. That means knowing before you hit a risk problem, not afterwards when it may be too late to prevent big losses spreading right through your enterprise. With kW3000(tm), our multi-commodity, integrated front to back office software, you can monitor your Profit At Risk(tm), counterparty risk and mark-to-market all in real time. Keep alert to risk. Do it in real time. Call KWI - http://www.kwi.com Americas: +1-281-681-3301 / Europe: +44 (0) 20-7386-2700 / Asia Pacific: +61(0) 2-9976-6111 ________________________________________________ Today's Gas Bulletins * Big Oil Takes Unknown Adventure into Saudi Natural Gas Projects * TotalFinaElf Confirms It Has 30% Stake in Saudi Natural Gas Deal * Australia Gives BHP-Billiton Conditional Approval * Chief ALJ Asks for Hearings Extension and Hints FERC Could Reverse Earlier Decision that Found El Paso Innocent of Affiliate Standards Violations * Nova Scotia Will Not Support Revised Business Plan by Sempra Atlantic Gas that Would Fundamentally Change Its Franchise Agreement with the Province * CMS Energy's Panhandle Pipe Line Companies Wins Safety Achievement Award * Element Re Announces $60 Million Weather Insurance Transaction with Atmos * Energy Designed to Provide Protection from Losses Due to Warm Winter * James Harmon Rejoins Questar Board Linking News stories available on page 7 at http://www.enerfax.com ________________________________________________ Natural Gas Futures Rally Above $4 Natural gas futures on the NYMEX jumped higher yesterday amid forecasts for above-average temperatures in Texas this week and revised predictions for warmer weather in July and August. The July contract gained $0.139 to $4.069 per MMBtu and August rose $0.142 to $4.151 per MMBtu. In spite of the price gain, it was a quiet day as none of the big players, Enron or El Paso, were very much involved. Industrial demand is on the rise again following weeks of declining natural gas prices was also seen as supportive. Some private forecasters have revised their summer predictions, and now believe July and August will be hotter than average. Summer forecasts have been changed to about 3 10 degrees above previous prognostications. Forecasts hot weather in Texas this week also aided the rally. Also, last week's storage data may be a sign that industrial demand is increasing and utilities that switched to oil appear to be switching back, and the hurricane season has begun. However, the market is waiting for confirmation of the trend from tomorrows AGA storage report. If this weeks AGA injection number is 80 Bcf or less, the back of the bear could be broken, but most traders are expecting a much higher number. A rally to the $4.25 might encourage the funds to start covering their short positions. However, another triple-digit injection could keep the downtrend in place. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US and Canada jumped $0.20 $0.30 per MMBtu yesterday, driven by the futures rally. Natural for next day delivery at the Henry hub gained $0.23 to $3.95 per MMBtu. ________________________________________________ North American Gas Storage Conference Storage 2001 - 2002: Source of Stability or Chaos? June 22, Houston Find the answers at Ziff Energy's natural gas storage conference. A blockbuster roster of industry leaders from the utility, trading, pipeline and storage sectors in each of the North American storage regions will present timely, relevant information you can use. This conference will assist you in making critical decisions about your natural gas storage strategy for peaking and the remaining seasonal base fill. The game has changed - storage strategy has been kicked up a notch from buying for seasonal fill to real-time risk management. Session 1 Supply Shortage or Storage Inefficiencies: Last Winter's Saga El Paso Corporation - Byron Wright, VP Energy Information Administration, DOE - Jim Thompson, Industry Analyst Keyspan Energy - David Manning, Senior VP, Corporation Affairs Axia Energy - David Modesett, VP Session 2 The Changing Storage Paradigm: Dynamic Storage Service vs Seasonal Fill AEC Storage & Hub Services Inc. - Rick Daniel, President Williams Energy Marketing & Trading - Blake Herndon, Director, Risk Management NiSource Inc. - T.J. Aruffo, VP Energy Supply Services Enron North America - Paul Bieniawski, Director Duke Energy Gas Transmission - David Nightingale, VP MHP Session 3 Pricing it Right and Reducing Risk: Can We Expect Stability or Chaos in Winter 2001 - 2001? Aquila Energy - Mark Cook, VP The Exchange Center Conoco Gas and Power Marketing - Brad King, VP Storage Sempra Energy Trading - Dan Guertin, Meteorologist For more information or to register visit http://www.ziffenergyconferences.com, call 1-800-853-6252, or email us at gasconference@ziffenergy.com ________________________________________________ Natural Gas NYMEX Volume 01JLY 42,018 01AUG 6,361 01SEP 5,955 01OCT 6,625 01NOV 2,963 01DEC 5,306 02JAN 4,856 02FEB 1,967 02MAR 2,459 02APR 1,502 02MAY 1,629 02JUN 598 02JLY 623 02AUG 575 02SEP 41 02OCT 171 02NOV 118 02DEC 87 03JAN 113 03FEB 5 03MAR 80 03APR 67 03MAY 51 03JUN 1 ________________________________________________ VISIT http://www.enernetdaily.com/restruc.pdf TO SEE YOUR FREE ISSUE OF RESTRUCTURING TODAY. Today is the last day to view Restructuring today for free.Restructuring Today reports the twists, plans, failures, strategies, shocks, absurdities, new sales and buying methods in what's becoming American's biggest industry. Restructuring Today's editors will tell you what the CEOs making the big decision are thinking and planning. And those editors cover more seminars than you can imagine going to (or paying for). They're guided by a network of correspondents in state capitals. Restructuring Today's editors are directed not to write what the news is but to report what the news means. It may seem opinionated but Restructuring Today's analysis is frequently mentioned when we survey readers about what they find useful in the daily reports. As a paid subscriber you receive timely news the date of issue. If you'd like to subscribe there is an order form on the back page of the newsletter. Visit http://www.enernetdaily.com/restruc.pdf to view yesterday's newsletter and call (985)893-9225 or write enerfax1@aol.com to get a one year subscription, over 200 issues seen each business day, for $437. A state license is available for $974 for 5 readers and each additional reader is $121.75. A corporate license includes all employees of the company and is only $4,000 per year. _________________________________________________ California PUC to Vote on Back QF Payments Pacific Gas and Electric and Southern California Edison would have to pay 15% of the money they owe to small power generators under an order to be voted on by the state PUC on Friday. But an organization representing the generators warned that approving the order would subject them to PUC regulation in addition to federal regulation, a problem they want to avoid. Many of the Qualifying Facilities have shutdown because they have not been paid hundreds of millions of dollars for power sold many months ago. Under an earlier PUC order, the utilities have been paying for QF power purchases since April and the small plants have been slowly returning to service. The order also proposes options for contract prices and incentive payments for excess power production by the QFs. The remaining debt would remain repayable, although the order says nothing about any future repayment schedule. The FERC ruled in May that the small power generators can sell electricity to third parties i! f ! they have power available above and beyond the amount they need to meet their existing contractual agreements with the utilities. _______________________________________________ ENERGY. @ENERGY, FEA's Complete Suite of Energy Products, BUILT FOR THE FUTURE. *Manage all your energy risks. *Build and Price deals. *Value physical assets (generation, storage, etc.) *Report and reduce your energy risks FEA FINANCIAL ENGINEERING ASSOCIATES http://www.fea.com main phone number: 1 510-548-6200 email address: info@fea.com _________________________________________________ House Energy Chairman Says Nation Facing Crisis The chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee says that the entire US is likely to face rolling blackouts like those plaguing California unless swift action was taken to build new power plants and increase natural gas production. He says the nation's high-tech economy could come to a crunching stop without an expansion of energy infrastructure and argued that government-imposed price caps would not provide a solution to high electricity prices. The EIA forecasts the will need 1,300 1,900 new power plants in the next 20 years to keep up with a projected 45% increase in demand. __________________________________________________ "New Horizons Solutions for the 21st Century" An Energy Efficiency Workshop and Exposition Kansas City, Missouri June 3 - June 6, 2001 For more information go to http://www.energy2001.eee.doe.gov _________________________________________________ California Largest State Economy A new report by the Commerce Department shows California makes up 13.2% of US economic output in 1999, the latest year for which data are available. That was well above the share of national economic output provided by the next largest state economies, New York at 8.1%, and Texas at 7.4%. From 1992 to 1999 California grew at a 3.9% annual rate, slightly higher than the 3.7% gain in national gross domestic product seen annually in the same period. Other Western states, including Nevada, Oregon and Washington all grew at a faster pace. Arizona, at a 7.3% annual rate of growth, was the fastest growing. _________________________________________________ SUNGARD Solutions for Success in Energy Trading Epsilon and Panorama Energy Risk and complexity are inevitable components of every trading transaction within today's volatile energy market. Having the right tools to manage and control those risks has become a determining success factor. SunGard provides those tools with Epsilon and Panorama Energy - comprehensive solutions designed to create measurable competitive advantages for energy trading organizations and utility companies worldwide. To receive more information or a free demonstration, we invite you to contact us at 713-266-7771 or visit our web site at http://risk.sungard.com/energy. ______________________________________________ Deadline for PG&E Power Contracts Set A federal bankruptcy judge has ruled that PG&E has until June 29th to decide whether it will assume or reject energy contracts with a number of small generators who fear they will not be paid for future power. The judge also granted Calpine's request to postpone a hearing to determine whether the it can be released from its power contract until July 5th. If the judge allows Calpine and smaller Qualifying Facilities out of their contracts, they could sell their power for much higher prices on the spot market. But if PG&E assumes the QF contracts, it is required to immediately pay its pre-bankruptcy filing debts owed to them, totaling several hundred million dollars. ______________________________________________ FERC Approves Hydropower Increase The FERC has approved a temporary increase in hydropower generation at the Priest Rapids Hydroelectric Project in Washington to help California avoid power shortages this summer. The commission will suspend rules on the spilling of dam waters during fish migration season this summer, allowing Priest Rapids to produce an additional 219,600 MWh of power. It is suspending part of an interim requirement which allows the licensee to spill water for 16 hours a day during the summer. It will allow for an exchange of spill and power with BPA, assuring flexibility and reliability to the regional grid and protecting listed fish species. The FERC is also seeking comment on an alternative plan that would suspend spill for an additional 8 hours per day, boosting generation to the region by 109,800 MWh. Hydropower accounts for 65% of the Pacific Northwest's electricity generation. ___________________________________________________ Progas Storage Services, Inc was recently organized to offer specialized natural gas storage services to marketers and end users servicing the upper Midwest and Northeast market regions along the major transmission systems in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Michigan. PGSMI has 10 bcf of potential working capacity which will offer service along TXG, ANR, Midwestern, and is currently evaluating for purchase another 21 bcf of potential working capacity which can be serviced by these and other systems in the region. PGSMI also explores for natural gas in the Gulf Coast region through a wholly owned subsidiary. Progas intends to go public through a route of private industry offerings, and an IPO or registration. For more information on services or the company mail to: gastorage@aol.com or for AOL mail to gastorage@aol.com; web site currently under construction at: http://www.progas.net/wip. The company's executive and administrative office is located in Abilene, Texas with storage operations in Owensboro, KY and exploration operations in Corpus Christi, TX. Progas Storage Services, Inc 8610 S. Hwy 277 Abilene, TX 79606 Ph 915 698 3699 Fx 915 698 2859 _____________________________________________ Westcoast to Expand Pipeline Capacity Westcoast Energy plans to expand it system by 250 MMcf per day of natural gas transportation capacity offered in two proposed pipeline expansions in western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. A recent open season to sell the capacity on the proposed pipeline expansions aimed at meeting a surge in demand from power plants was successful. Total volumes from both pipeline expansions, which could begin commercial service in 2003, would be more than enough supply for 1,500 MW of power generation. The expansions will link markets in the BC Lower Mainland and Pacific Northwest with supplies from BC, Alberta and the Northwest Territories. Westcoast is preparing to award 200 MMcf per day of expansion capacity on its Southern Mainline facilities to ten shippers with an average term of 27 years. It is also preparing to award 50 MMcf per day of new capacity on its Westcoast Alberta facilities to four shippers with an average term of 30 years. ______________________________________________ NGI Reports June Natural Gas Prices Plummet Following on a month of mild weather with robust storage additions, natural gas spot prices for June dropped more than $1 from first-of-the-month May quotes at most points across the country, with the majority of prices coming in between $3.60 and $3.80. The June prices also were significantly below same time last year levels, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. The blockbuster turnaround was in California, where prices took a precipitous dive, led by a more than $4 drop in the Southern California-PG&E price to $6.77. While still high enough above the rest of the country to qualify as a separate market, the Southern California Border average of $11.70, fell from $14.64 in May. It didn't require a crystal ball to predict the price drop for June baseload gas, since prices had been steadily declining in the May after-market. The mild weather through much of the country, except California, and lack of air conditioning load has allowed eye-popping 100 Bcf-plus storage fill! s ! for four weeks in a row. Storage levels, which had been below normal for more than a year, have climbed out of the basement, finally topping last year's levels in the survey for the week ending May 25th. As the storage fill level increased throughout May, the June futures contract declined, going off the board Tuesday at $3.738, or roughly $1.20 below the close of the May contract. A year ago all indexes, including California's, ranged from the $3.50s in the Rockies to the $4.60s in the Northeast. Now Northeast city-gates in the $4.10s lead the non-California pack, and Rockies prices have slipped below $3. The Henry Hub dropped from $4.89 last month to $3.73. June quotes were considerably below the winter bid-week highs registered in January of $16.32 at the Southern California border, $9.92 at the Henry Hub and $10.93 at the Chicago City-gate. _______________________________________________ CAMINUS ENERGY SOFTWARE SHOWCASE 2001 HOUSTON, TEXAS You're Invited To a four hour exposition of software and services that will set the new standard for the energy trading, scheduling, and risk management. Join us and compare your existing system with our latest product offerings. Thursday, June 14, 2001. 3p.m. to 7p.m. Houston Petroleum Club 800 Bell Avenue, 43rd Floor For more information or to register on-line, visit http://www.caminus.com. You may invite up to two qualified colleagues to join you. Nucleus Software . ZaiNet Software ZaiNet Gasmaster 2 . ZaiNet WeatherDelta ___________________________________________________ EnerfactsDaily Job Center at http://www.enerfactsdaily.com New Job Postings Include: * Sales-Business Development * Operations Specialist * Account Director -Marketing/Transportation _____________________________________________________ FINANCIAL SUMMARY The TSE 300 climbed 50.27 points to 8301.21 The CRB Index lost 0.37 points to 210.34 The US Dollar increased 0.18 points to 119.22 The Dow rose 71.11 points to 11061.52 The S&P 500 rose 6.44 points to 1267.11 The Nasdaq was up 6.49 points to 2155.93 July NYMEX Crude Oil climbed 0.20 to 28.13 Canadian-US Exchange gained .0037 to 1.5357 _____________________________________________________ Need a past issue of Enerfax Daily or Enerfax GOLD. Past issues are available on Sagewave at http://www.sagewave.com/D2/autolog/common/log.asp?KEY=enerfax ______________________________________________________ --------------------------- If you would like to contact Enerfax Energy, please do not reply to this mail. Use the address below: enerfax@enerfax.com If you wish to cancel your subscription to the Enerfax Energy list, you may click on the link below to be unsubscribed immediately. http://www.modernmediaohio.com/cgi-bin/080256/enerfax1.pl?CHRIS.GERMANY@ENRON.COM If you need more help, please contact Modern Media (http://www.modernmediaohio.com/subscriber-support.htm)
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