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Enron Mail |
Weather Headlines Friday January 25, 2002 No changes to my earlier thinking. Near record warmth in the short term to replaced by sharply colder weather in the 6-10 day period. The short term outlook is pretty simple, not to mention quiet. Any action to speak of is confined to the extreme Western U.S. To be sure, a healthy storm comes in off the Pacific spreading moisture all the way down the coast. The higher elevation should see some significant snows. With the deepening trough in the area, we can expect the cool bias of recent weeks to continue. It has also become apparent that the Pre-Christmas ridge has reappeared in the Eastern U.S. Well above normal temperatures through the weekend are expected nearly everywhere to the right of the Rockies. Most of this occurs with little or no precipitation. Early next week the Western U.S. storm starts to emerge in the High Plains. The Gulf of Mexico starts to open up and a moderate intensity Canadian High pushes into the Northern Plains. This initiates a turn to colder air that lasts into the medium range. There are so many weather models to choose from these days that picking one to be right is very difficult. I'll look at trends and opportunities for consensus, but more and more the forecaster who hits has to look at the big picture rather than an individual model solution. So it goes with the 6-10 day period. I am confident of a colder turn in the East during the period with some cooling well South into Florida. I remain comfortable with going below normal for most of the country and double digit below remains a possibility, especially in the Plains which would make this overall colder than late December. The Gulf Coast and SE may still see 5 day numbers average above normal as the cooling really won't take hold until late. But, I dont expect one big Canadian high to plunge South. It will likely only go as far South as the Great Lakes. The Southern stream may also get more active this period dumping some snows in the Midwest that really haven't seen it this winter. As mentioned yesterday, I still expect this to be a transitory cold, but the warm up after Day 10 may not be as pronounced as recent warm ups, at least not right away. For the period Friday January 25 through Tuesday January 29, expect the following temperature trends: Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Desert SW, California... Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW... Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern Plains and Rockies... Average 4 to 9-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Plains, Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Rockies... Average 10 to 15-degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Gulf Coast, Southeast... Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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