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Enron Mail |
Weather Headlines Friday October 19 , 2001 *** Zonal flow keeps the short term quiet. Major jet stream amplification expected in the medium range with arctic outbreak possible.*** A weak cold front is crossing the Midwest today, but with very little change in sensible weather. The only significant storminess over the next several days would be a heavy rain threat over the Southern half of Florida and a moderate rain threat in the Pacific NW. When I last wrote on Monday, I discussed the potential for a trough to form in the Western U.S. It clearly has not happened though I mentioned that a zonal flow would also accomplish the forecasted warm up. This milder air should stay in place into the middle of next week. The Western Atlantic ridge has also strengthened in recent days which should force Gulf and East coast temperatures to go above normal by early next week after a couple of more coolish days. There are no named storms in the tropics at this time. A couple of flare-ups in the Caribbean bear watching, but likely would not develop until Monday at the earliest, if then. Weather patterns in the 6-10 day range should become much more interesting and bullish. All of the models forecast a strong dip of the polar jet to occur into the Plains late next week. There are some discrepancies in the intensity and how fast it moves East. However, given some very strong winds in the Pacific and some very cold air now over the Arctic, I expect this to be significant. Persistence also should pay off in this forecast. These troughs have not had any problem digging into the Eastern U.S. since Labor Day while troughs into the West have been non-existence. This could be giving us clues on how the winter will go. The good news is that will aid in verifying my winter outlook, the bad news is it could result in a long season in the East. Specifics can wait until next week as the event gets closer. A couple of highlights though would likely be accumulating snows in the Northern U.S. and double digit below normal temperatures invading the Plains and spreading East. As is usually the case, a strong trough in the East results in significant ridging(with warmer, drier air) in the Western U.S. For the period October 19 through October 23, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3 degrees below normal: Gulf Coast, Ohio Valley, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Northern Rockies, Pacific NW... Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Plains, Mississippi Valley, California, Central Rockies... Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Desert SW, Intermountain West, Southern Rockies... Unspecified areas will average close to normal...
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