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Friday December 21, 2001 Legitimate cold air poised to move into the U.S. the last week of the year. Some models also hint at significant winter storminess next week as well. The next system should start cranking up over SE Colorado today and track towards the Great Lakes this weekend. This will still be more of a rain than snow event, but finally is the catalyst to really show the pattern change. As the storm exits in the East, a strong ridge builds on the West coast up into Canada which forces polar air South. High latitude blocking then keeps the polar air in place. The Midwest is the first recipient of this and it then spreads East into next week. We are rapidly losing the positive temperature departures. They should be gone all together East of the Rockies by Christmas. Of course they will be growing under the ridge West of the Rockies. Negative departures should become more prominent next week under this polar vortex. They will show up more in daytime highs rather than night time lows. I don't expect heavy precipitation in the short term from this, but persistent cloudiness and wind will add to the chill. The 6-10 day period shows the polar vortex locked into place over the Great Lakes. It is also possible that Southern jet stream energy will undercut this polar air spinning up a winter storm in the South that could head up the East Coast. This storm is clearly in the speculative stages and should be watched. But, the cold is not speculative, it is real. I am very confident in the evolution of this at long last. It appears to be a fairly long lasting event, the question now is how long and how severe. One extreme example of how strong this potential may be down the road was a report earlier this week that record high barometric pressure readings were approached in Mongolia. The center of this Siberian high had a pressure of around 32.00" of mercury. The temperature at the time of the reading was 41 below zero. Most of the models on a hemispheric scale are now lining up the surface highs from the U.S. Northwest to the Pole. The Canadian model in particular shows some very frigid air in the NW territories on its Day 10 depiction. If this trend continues, it could be extremely cold early in 2002. Note: This is my final weather commentary until January 2'nd of 2002. Best wishes for a happy holiday season. For the period Friday December 21 through Tuesday December 25, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Desert SW, Central and Southern Plains? Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Pacific NW, California, Rockies, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast ? Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Southeast, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic ? Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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