FRIDAY WEATHER HEADLINES

Weather Headlines
Friday November 16, 2001

*** Another mild November weekend in store before changes occur to usher in
Thanksgiving.***

Folks in West Texas or perhaps along the SE coast may disagree with
their rain and/or wind of recent days, but the pattern over the Lower 48
remains remarkably quiet and warm. It should remain that way until the end
of this five day outlook period. However, changes are brewing in Canada
that will send a cold front down the Plains and East for early next week.
True arctic air still appears limited in my view, but a sizeable
temperature drop East of the Rockies is still expected. It begins in the
Northern Plains late Sunday and gets to the East coast by Thanksgiving.

There is suddenly a lot of model spread in regard to the middle and end of
next week. I am not going to make any changes to my thinking until perhaps
next week because if I average the extremes I am seeing the result is close
to my earlier forecast. As for the extremes, the Canadian continues to be
in the winter camp. The second cold shot it develops by Thanksgiving in the
Plains looks way overdone to me. On the other hand the European and MRF
have a rapid warming underway in the Plains. I have said repeatedly that I
think the upcoming cold is a fairly quick shot in its extreme, but clearly
the main jet stream will be suppressed farther South making a rapid warming
suspect as well. So, until I see more evidence to the contrary, a general
forecast in the near to slightly below normal camp still looks good to me.
Some models suggest a winter storm of some significance is possible for the
East next week. I can sure see some potential of Lake effect and Interior
Mountain snows, but I am not ready to forecast this event for the I95
corridor.

For the period Friday November 16 through Tuesday November 20, expect the
following temperature trends:

Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southern Plains ?

Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Desert SW,
California, Pacific NW?

Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Mississippi Valley,
Southern Rockies, Intermountain West?

Average 7 to 10-degrees above normal: Northeast, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes,
Central Rockies and Plains?

Average 11 to 15-degrees above normal: Northern Rockies and Plains?

Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote