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Enron Mail |
Weather Headlines
Monday November 12, 2001 *** Southern stream becoming more active. Northern stream still showing signs of change Thanksgiving week. *** A healthy Pacific coast storm may spread some rain as far south as the LA Basin today. This is a compact storm that over the next couple of days will track towards the Desert SW and Four corners area. Eventually this could lead to moisture for Texas, the Gulf coast, and Florida. It is not a pattern changer though. In fact, a large high continues to cover most of the rest of the country. What little cold there is now in the NE will exit quickly and very mild air that has been in the Plains recently will surge East. In a raw sense, many areas may be as warm this week as last. From a departure from normal point of view, numbers will be much higher, getting into double digits in the Midwest. The 6-10 day period remains the target of a pattern change. This alleged change has been consistently pushed back a day on each model run for the last week. By last Wednesday, I stopped buying the day to day stuff and argued a change around Thanksgiving Day. It may be a day or two after that, but still appears to be in the ballpark. If one looks at what may be coming in comparison to the last 2-3 weeks, it looks very significant and much colder. If, however you compare it to a late November normal, it does not look very cold. The forecast set up is for a ridge to form over the Western U.S. which promotes a trough in the Central and/or Eastern U.S. This happens in response to changes occurring in the Pacific. Overall, this is looking like an overhyped event right now in my opinion as I am not convinced there will be significant arctic air coming into the trough, nor am I convinced it is nothing more than a quick event. Most of it is still expected just after this period, so my 6-10 day outlook is still a warmer than normal one. For the period Monday November 12 through Friday November 16, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast ? Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, California, Pacific NW? Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, Southern Rockies and Plains, Intermountain West? Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Rockies and Plains? Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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