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Thursday November 15, 2001 *** Pattern change to colder still on track for Thanksgiving Week. Unusual warmth and dryness to dominate most of the country through the weekend. *** The only heavy rain of note on the map today is in Texas. A cut-off Low in the SW is responsible for this and is also generating some cool air underneath the upper low. A developing storm off the SE coast has been a rain and wind maker for Florida, but its effects are lessening as the system moves away. I am hard pressed to find any other significant weather other than warmth across the Lower 48 and that trend should hold until the weekend. By Sunday, colder air that is building across Canada will have a mechanism to start its descent South. This cold front will not have a lot of moisture to work with so I don't at this time see any big storm developing, just wind and a temperature drop of some 30 degrees in many areas. As I look at the trajectory of high pressure coming down out of Canada, the continental divide continues to be a good cutoff point for the Western intrusion of any cold air. This will be mainly an Eastern U.S. event with a ridge in the West and trough in the East. Again, it only just gets underway late in the short term period, so five day temperatures will still average well above normal for most of the country. The now beaten to death pattern change plays a more prominent role in the 6-10 day forecast. In a nutshell, most of the country this period East of the Rockies will come out below normal. I accept this, but my often repeated concerns of degree and duration remain. The models are in somewhat of a conflict in this area as well. Often, they will revert back to a zonal flow a little too quickly. That is probably the case here, but given there is some support among the ensembles just after Thanksgiving, the trend may be on line. I should point out though that a return to zonal flow late next week is NOT a return to the same current pattern. I would expect the jet stream to be suppressed farther South than its recent pattern. If it all verifies, late in the 6-10 day period, temperatures should return back to near if not above seasonal norms for most of the Midwest, just not to the degree we have seen lately. Models are also in disagreement about another cold outbreak in early December. Since it is outside this time frame and needs more study on my account, I will refrain from any additional comment. For the period Thursday November 15 through Monday November 19, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southern Plains ? Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast, Desert SW, California, Pacific NW? Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Mississippi Valley, Southern Rockies, Intermountain West? Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Northeast, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Central Rockies and Plains? Average 13 to 18-degrees above normal: Northern Rockies and Plains? Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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