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Enron Mail |
This is the correct version. Sorry for any confusion... Andy -----Original Message----- From: Andy Weingarten Sent: Tuesday, January 08, 2002 9:07 AM To: 'Weather Archive'; 'Weather News Distribution' Subject: TUESDAY WEATHER HEADLINES Weather Headlines Tuesday January 8, 2002 Thaw underway for the short term. Longer range models continue to insist (as I continue to resist) that real arctic air arrives later in the month. There is some potential for yet another winter storm in the East late in the five day period. The point in question is how much cold air is available or is it just another cold rain for many folks. That will be answered later in the week. The overall pattern definitely looks warmer for now though some of this energy goes into melting snow cover rather than warming the air. The absence of snow in the Plains is one reason why they are so much warmer relative to normal than areas farther East. But, most of the country goes warmer than normal before the end of the week. The last to catch on to this trend is the Southeast. I am not as bullish as the charts (and some forecasters) in regards to cold air developing in the medium range period and beyond. I am not saying next week and the week after will not be colder than this week, they likely will be. But, I continue to have questions as to intensity and Southern extent of whatever develops. First, we have yet to see any real polar flow so far this winter. Second, lack of deep snow cover in the Northern U.S. tends to inhibit bitter cold. Third, and perhaps most important to me is the lack of high surface pressures developing over Canada. Now, they may develop eventually, but I want to see it first. Finally, most models have more of a West to East configuration at the jet stream level rather than a NW to SE orientation straight out of the arctic. Given these conditions and recent history I am just not ready yet to pronounce any major cold developing. In fact, I would expect the Gulf Coast and SE to actually run warmer than normal through the 20'th of the month. The Plains, Lakes and NE probably go back to below normal levels, but not excessively so. It looks comparable to the past couple of weeks. The West is expected to take on a temperature profile that closely resembles normal Mid-January levels. For the period Tuesday January 8 through Saturday January 12, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast? Average 1 to 3-above normal: Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic... Average 4 to 9-degrees above normal: Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, Southern Plains and Rockies, California, Intermountain West, Desert SW, Pacific NW? Average 10 to locally 20-degrees above normal: Central and Northern Rockies, Central and Northern Plains... Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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