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Enron Mail |
*** Models continue to show a significant change just past the short range
period. The next few days can be used to prepare.*** The current pattern is quite unusual to say the least. While it is true that temperatures in the 60's and 70's are not uncommon in November for a day or two at a time, some areas that would normally be in the 40's this time of year have seen an almost uninterrupted streak of this for the past two weeks. Look for several more days of occasional 20 to in some cases 30 degree above normal temperatures in the North. The warm air will rapidly spread into the NE as well and take up residence into early next week. Most of the country is absent of any significant storminess, but the periphery of the country is seeing some rain. It could get significant in West Texas and Florida over the next couple of days. The 6-10 day period still looks to be on target for a significant pattern change. Say goodbye to the zonal flow which is well North of its normal November position. The models are targeting Monday-Tuesday for this change to really get underway. A ridge sets up over the Western continent which promotes a trough in the Central and East allowing Canadian air to flow Southeast. My concerns to magnitude and duration remain, however a change from 20-30 above normal to perhaps 5-10 below normal still must be deemed "significant" in its own right. Even if my concerns are realized, I would highly doubt that the widespread 60's and 70's in the North would return. The Canadian model is most aggressive with developing some sort of a "winter storm" for next week. I think the more likely scenario at this time is a drier turn to colder weather. Lake effect snows are certainly a possibility and some rain with the passage of the front could occur, but I am not ready to jump upon the big storm bandwagon... not yet anyway. For the period Wednesday November 14 through Sunday November 18, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast, Desert SW ? Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast, California, Pacific NW? Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Northeast, Mississippi Valley, Southern Rockies and Plains, Intermountain West? Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Central Rockies and Plains? Average 13 to 18-degrees above normal: Northern Rockies and Plains? Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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