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_____ <http://knight.economist.com/click.ng/site=econ&;size=468x60&adsection=agenda&media=web&issue=00010101&pagepos=1< Economist.com <http://www.economist.com/index.cfm<; Economist.com ADVANCED SEARCH <http://www.economist.com/search/index.cfm<; Wednesday January 23rd 2002 <http://www.economist.com/members/aboutreg.cfm<;denotes premium content <http://www.economist.com/members/aboutreg.cfm<; | Log in <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=948888&login=Y< | Free registration <http://www.economist.com/members/registration.cfm<; | Help <http://www.economist.com/help/index.cfm<; OPINION <http://www.economist.com/opinion/index.cfm<; WORLD <http://www.economist.com/world/index.cfm<; BUSINESS <http://www.economist.com/business/index.cfm<; FINANCE <http://www.economist.com/finance/index.cfm<; SCIENCE <http://www.economist.com/science/index.cfm<; PEOPLE <http://www.economist.com/people/index.cfm<; BOOKS & ARTS <http://www.economist.com/books/index.cfm<; MARKETS <http://www.economist.com/markets/index.cfm<; DIVERSIONS <http://www.economist.com/diversions/index.cfm<; <http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?promo=economist<; LIBRARY Articles by subject <http://www.economist.com/library/articlesBySubject/index.cfm<; Backgrounders <http://www.economist.com/library/backgrounders/index.cfm<; Surveys <http://www.economist.com/surveys/index.cfm<; Style guide <http://www.economist.com/library/StyleGuide/index.cfm<; Internet guide <http://www.economist.com/library/InternetGuide/index.cfm<; PRINT EDITION THE ECONOMIST <http://www.economist.com/printedition/index.cfm<; Full contents <http://www.economist.com/printedition/index.cfm<; Subscriptions <http://www.economist.com/subscriptions<; <http://www.economist.com/globalexecutive/<; Global Executive <http://www.economist.com/globalexecutive/<; with Whitehead Mann Career guidance, personalised advice, job postings and more. 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Jan 22nd 2002 From The Economist Global Agenda Israel's latest military actions in the West Bank have deepened the Palestinian conviction that Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister, has decided to topple Yasser Arafat, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, and reoccupy all the areas it controls. Many Israelis now share this analysis AP AP Going...? YASSER ARAFAT'S shrivelled dominion is under daily attack. Early on January 22nd, tanks entered the West Bank town of Nablus, controlled by his Palestinian Authority (PA). Four Palestinians, suspected militants from the Islamist group Hamas, were killed-in a gun battle, according to Israel; assassinated in cold blood, in the Palestinian version of events. At the same time, the Israeli army was withdrawing from the centre of nearby Tulkarm, which it had occupied the day before, placing its 34,000 residents under curfew, arresting several people and engaging in sporadic shoot-outs with residents of a Palestinian refugee camp. The invasion of Tulkarm was condemned by Terje Roed-Larsen, the UN's special co-ordinator for the Middle East peace process as a "dangerous escalation". Like the incursion into Nablus, it was part of a series of Israeli reprisals for a Palestinian attack on a Bat Mitzvah reception in the town of Hadera on January 17th. Six Israelis were killed and 30 wounded in a suicide attack, the first armed Palestinian operation inside Israel since Mr Arafat declared a ceasefire on December 16th. On the afternoon of January 22nd an unidentified gunman opened fire on a rush-hour crowd in central Jerusalem, injuring at least 20 people before being shot dead by police. The al-Aqsa Brigades-a militia linked to Mr Arafat's Fatah movement-claimed responsibility for both incidents, calling them revenge for Israel's unacknowledged assassination of Raed Karmi, one of its leaders, in Tulkarm, on January 14th. In response to the Hadera slaughter, Israel used F-16 jets to destroy the PA's main police station in Tulkarm on January 18th. One Palestinian police officer was killed and 40 people were wounded, including civilians. Then came the invasion. Shortly after the deaths in Nablus, Hamas too said it would reconsider the pause in its own suicide attacks in Israel. Popular support for Hamas was shown the same day in a thousands-strong demonstration in Nablus, which led to the release of one of its members, the brother of one of the dead men, from a PA jail. So it looks as if Israel and the Palestinians are back to the politics of the last atrocity-the endless cycle of murder and retribution that characterised the intifada in the pre-ceasefire era. But Palestinians say this time it is different. "Israel is now implementing its plan to topple President Arafat, undermine the PA and reoccupy the PA areas," says Marwan Barghouti, the West Bank leader of Fatah. Mr Barghouti himself could soon be a target. Israel insists that he is the commander in charge of militias like the al-Aqsa Brigades. His head will soon be on the same block as Mr Karmi's, predict Palestinians (and several Israeli analysts), but fewer and fewer of them would disagree with his prognosis. On January 18th Israeli tanks moved to within spitting distance of Mr Arafat's presidential offices in Ramallah. They are digging in permanent positions, suggesting the longest of stays. The army also reconquered 55% of the town, Mr Arafat's "temporary capital", and dynamited the PA's main radio station, a symbolic act aimed at silencing Palestinian "incitement". Palestinians fought back, first with stones and slingshots, then with guns, shooting randomly at nearby Jewish settlements and staging the occasional ambush on the tanks that now patrol Ramallah's streets. Worse will almost certainly come. Groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and radical factions of the Palestine Liberation Organisation are already vowing "martyrdom" in response to the invasions. And Fatah-affiliated outfits like the al-Aqsa Brigades declared the ceasefire "a hoax" the moment Mr Karmi was killed. Reuters Reuters The rubble in Tulkarm As for their leader, Mr Arafat remains confined to his Ramallah headquarters, literally under the barrels of Israeli guns. He will neither flee nor resign, insist his aides. But all Palestinians are aware that, if there is one more operation like Hadera, Israel will be tempted to kick away the remaining stools on which their leader stands. Palestinian fears about Mr Sharon's intentions are increasingly converging with Israeli suspicions. Both on the Israeli right and the left, it is now widely assumed that the prime minister is determined to remove Mr Arafat from the picture. The main difference between the two camps' assessments is over whether Mr Sharon proposes to do away with the entire structure of the PA, or rather to engineer a more palatable leadership to replace Mr Arafat. Significantly, this analysis of Mr Sharon's intentions is provoking little outcry, or even much sustained criticism, within Israeli mainstream politics. It is true that there was a good deal of embarrassed comment in the press over the army's large-scale destruction of Palestinian homes at a refugee camp on the Gaza-Egypt border earlier this month. Doveish voices also questioned the wisdom and timing of the assassination of Mr Karmi. Even Dalia Rabin-Pelossof, the Labour Party deputy defence minister and daughter of Yitzhak Rabin, an assassinated prime minister and peacemaker, suggested on January 21st that the government (of which she is a fairly central member) may have missed an opportunity to move from violence to negotiations by failing to capitalise on the relative calm that prevailed between mid-December and early January. But such criticism is not having big political repercussions. On January 17th the Labour Party's central committee crushed a motion by Yossi Beilin, a former minister and indefatigable peace negotiator, to secede from the coalition government. Speaker after speaker pointed out that to quit now would inevitably be seen as support for Mr Arafat, and would be electoral suicide. Green lights? Reuters Reuters Tear gas for Israel Mr Barghouti, the Fatah commander, believes that, in its plan to topple Mr Arafat, Israel has received a "green light" from the Americans. Mr Arafat has written to President George Bush asking him to send Anthony Zinni, America's Middle East envoy, back to the region. But the Americans say Mr Zinni's mediation efforts are presently "on hold". This silence worries Palestinians far more than Israeli tanks do. On the Israeli side, the idea that "Bush has had it with Arafat" has become axiomatic among aides to the prime minister. These Israeli officials say the episode of the arms-smuggling ship that Israel apprehended in the Red Sea three weeks ago convinced the Bush team of Mr Arafat's perennial perfidy. Israeli gloating over Washington's purported or imminent dumping of Mr Arafat is probably unfounded, or at any rate premature. But Mr Sharon expects-and undisguisedly hopes-that the American administration will decide this week not to send Mr Zinni back to the region for the time being. Briefing the leadership of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the most important pro-Israeli lobby in Washington, the prime minister said the envoy's return would only "give the Palestinians hope that they can keep on shooting and also negotiate at the same time." But if Mr Zinni's absence is indeed taken as American endorsement for a plan to oust Mr Arafat, and the plan succeeds, what then? The forecast of Ahmed Abdul Rahman, one of Mr Arafat's aides, may be biased, but at the moment it is hard to argue with: "suicidal armed chaos". <http://knight.economist.com/click.ng/site=econ&;size=250x250&adsection=agenda&media=web&issue=00010101< From the web Militants Offer Israel Ceasefire <http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x30933702<; (Sky.com) Wed 19:53 GMT A raid by Israel, a rampage by Fatah <http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x30931907<; (National Post Online) Wed 18:48 GMT 01/23 13:01 Israeli Jets Strike Lebanese Hezbollah After Border Clash <http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x30930418<; (Bloomberg.com) Wed 18:04 GMT Israel, Palestinians promise retaliation <http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x30930281<; (USA Today) Wed 18:00 GMT Palestinian group offers conditional truce <http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x30927352<; (Electronic Telegraph) Wed 16:54 GMT more... <http://www.economist.com/library/moreover.cfm?title=From%20the%20web&file=israel< Provided by moreover.com <http://www.moreover.com<; From The Economist America, Israel and the Palestinians <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=878438< Nov 22nd 2001 Palestinian dissent <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=866314< Nov 15th 2001 Israel and the Palestinians:Looking beyond Arafat <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=861330< Nov 9th 2001 Israel and the Palestinians <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=834436< Oct 25th 2001 America and Israel <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=806331< Oct 4th 2001 America and the Middle East: At a loss <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=778837< Sep 10th 2001 The several voices of Palestinian authority <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=739699< Aug 16th 2001 Country Briefing: Israel <http://www.economist.com/countries/Israel/index.cfm<; Websites <http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rt/<;The Israeli government <http://www.pmo.gov.il/english/<; and the Palestinian Authority <http://www.pna.net<; offer their standpoints on recent events. Ha'aretz <http://www.haaretzdaily.com/<; and the Jordan Times <http://www.jordantimes.com<; provide up-to-date news. The US State Department <http://www.state.gov<; posts information on its efforts to promote peace in the region-click here <http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/<; and here <http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rt/<;. Documents relating to the peace process are published by the Israeli government <http://www.israel-mfa.gov.il/mfa/go.asp?MFAH00pq0<, the Palestinian Authority <http://www.pna.net/peace/index.htm<;, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation <http://www.nad-plo.org/<. The State Department posts the Mitchell report <http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/mitchell.htm<;. Also in Global Agenda American fiscal policy <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=952062< Jan 23rd 2002 Al-Qaeda prisoners <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=951299< Jan 23rd 2002 Afghanistan <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=948792< Jan 22nd 2002 Middle East <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=950993< Jan 23rd 2002 Enron <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=948549< Jan 23rd 2002 Currency regimes <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=948342< Jan 21st 2002 Kmart <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=948832< Jan 22nd 2002 Fashion <http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=951574< Jan 23rd 2002 About Global Agenda <http://www.economist.com/about/about_globalagenda.cfm< Economist.com Marketplace ADVERTISEMENT <http://knight.economist.com/click.ng/site=econ&;size=120x800&adsection=agenda&media=web&issue=00010101< OPINION <http://www.economist.com/opinion/index.cfm<; | WORLD <http://www.economist.com/world/index.cfm<; | BUSINESS <http://www.economist.com/business/index.cfm<; | FINANCE & ECONOMICS <http://www.economist.com/finance/index.cfm<; | SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY <http://www.economist.com/science/index.cfm<; PEOPLE <http://www.economist.com/people/index.cfm<; | BOOKS & ARTS <http://www.economist.com/books/index.cfm<; | MARKETS & DATA <http://www.economist.com/markets/index.cfm<; | DIVERSIONS <http://www.economist.com/diversions/index.cfm<; | PRINT EDITION <http://www.economist.com/printedition/index.cfm<; Copyright <http://www.economist.com/help/copy_general.cfm< ? 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