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Enron Mail |
Weather Headlines Monday October 29, 2001 *** Pacific air to overwhelm most of the country this week with a lack of significant storminess. There may however be some late season percolation in the tropics.*** For the third time this month, we set a handful of record lows in the SE U.S. this weekend. The Canadian high is moving toward the coast though and we should soon initiate a broad (though light) SW flow of air that will warm the East back to above normal levels. This is already well under way in the Plains where 70's were common this weekend. This pattern shuts off the Gulf of Mexico and allows for mainly dry frontal passages. One such front in the Plains will shift to the NE through Wednesday. Since we have a zonal flow developing in the upper levels, this front does little more than slow down the warm up as opposed to stopping it all together. Storms are a little more robust in the Pacific NW as a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska continues to send impulses of energy your way. Some precip should get as far South as Northern California. With no additional arctic air in sight this week, most five day averages return to above seasonal norms. The most excitement for weather fanatics this week may be late season development in the tropics. We have a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic now and satellite pictures suggest another one may be developing over the next 24 hours in the Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. My initial thought was its a little too far South and too close to land to really have an impact in the Gulf and SE. However, there is considerable forecast scatter among the models. It runs anywhere from nothing at all to development in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I wont rule it out yet, but since it would be days away and not even developed yet, I'll wait a couple of days before issuing a prediction. Last week 6-10 day forecasts from the models were largely in agreement and so far have been mostly on the money. Given the pattern though, I would have expected this to be the case. The next change in weather will likely not be so agreed upon and there is already some scatter in the models. My early expectations are for another buckle to take place in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. early in this period. Some keep things zonal, but you certainly can't argue the trend so far this fall is for this to occur about every seven days. But, there is reason to think the Eastern trough will not be as robust as the last several. In other words, it won't be as cold or spread as far South or West. If it goes this way, we would turn slightly below normal East, a little above in the West and a little of both (or normal) in the Plains. For the period Monday October 29 through Tuesday November 2, expect the following temperature trends: Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Southeast, Gulf Coast? Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Pacific NW, Northern California... Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern California, Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys? Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Most of the Plains and Rockies, Intermountain West, Desert SW? Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote
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