Load Analysis

Here is comments from Brad on his initial assessment of Tennergy. He is
working with Williams now to see if his flow analysis is accurate. We should
know from Williams shortly and therefore will need to get a handle on how
much additional transport we will need.
---------------------- Forwarded by Phil DeMoes/Corp/Enron on 02/27/2001
01:27 PM ---------------------------

From: Brad Blevins @ ECT 11/29/2000 06:42 PM

To: Phil DeMoes/Corp/Enron@ENRON
cc:

Subject: Load Analysis

From the best that I can tell from a GE LM600 catalog, the fuel rate for one
of these units under average conditions will be 8.4 MMCFD. The capacity of
these two 8" lines is between 40-44 MMCFD, but the LDC load number peaks up
to 25 MMCFD in September. If you look at just June, July and August, then
it's still 22 MMCFD. If the fuel rates from the catalog are correct at 8.4
MMCFD/unit, then we are looking at 17 MMCFD for two LM6000 units. This puts
us at utilizing from 39 MMCFD to 42 MMCFD of a system that has between 40-44
MMCFD total capacity. This is way too close for comfort, we need to tighten
both our LM6000 fuel numbers, our system capacity numbers and the LDC load
numbers. You need to get confirmation on what the maximum fuel rate will be
for two of these units. I need to get with Jackson Utility to see if their
peak hour numbers are different from the daily numbers, I'm betting that they
are. I need to build a more detailed model of the two 8" pipelines with the
LDC loads coming off at the right mileposts, with correct efficiency factors
for the pipe. I'll get the correct efficiency factors for the pipe by
simulating an actual flow period on their system. I'm hoping that they have
good historical numbers or are willing to gather data on a typical day for me
to simulate. I can take my simulation package up to Tennessee and fine tune
everything, if needed, or do it here in Houston with email and phone.