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Enron Mail |
The following is an update on PGG earnings for the 2nd quarter and our ability
increase our EBIT for PGG from our last current estimate of 58 million to at least 62 million. I talked with Kirk Steven's this afternoon and after looking at our preliminary closing estimates for power cost for May, our June current estimate of power cost, and the amount of overview (25 million) we had targeted for the second quarter here is what we concluded based upon the assumption that prices for June do not continue to degrade from current levels like they have over the last month. Current Estimate Provided to Enron for Q2 58 million Power Cost & O&M Improvement < Overview 10 million Catchup on Enron Allocations ( 3) million Total EBIT 65 million There are two sensitivities to this estimate that could lower this number by a combined 6.5 million. First we understand that we may be allocated charges for the Tomas transaction that ran through the PGG books last year. We reserved 1.8 million last year and we understand the total charges from GATX could be as much as $5.1 million. We did not include anything in our targets or plan for additional charges since this transaction was originated in Houston. Second we have incurred $3.2 million in costs associated with supply chain software associated with the sale of PGE to Sierra. We will have to write-off these costs in the second quarter since the software would only have value in a peoplesoft system environment. We have had good discussions with Bob Butz about Enron covering these costs with some of the money they received from Sierra to terminate the transaction. We will need to resolve this in the 2nd quarter or take the write-off which would reduce our EBIT. In addition, as we have communicated before with you, we still have an open long power position in June and all of the third quarter for reliability purposes which will continue to cause our earnings to be volatile. Recently power curves in the west have been trading down but we would expect them to rise as the warm weather comes on and loads in California increase. There have been some structural changes in the California market that could tend to dampen the price curves for this summer. We will continue to keep you informed on what changes we are seeing as we go through June in terms of meeting the 2nd Quarter adjusted current estimate EBIT numbers discussed above. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this further feel free to call me at 503-464-8982.
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