Enron Mail

From:stinson.gibner@enron.com
To:amitava.dhar@enron.com, paulo.issler@enron.com, tanya.tamarchenko@enron.com
Subject:Credit Support Value for MG and PaperCo
Cc:vince.kaminski@enron.com
Bcc:vince.kaminski@enron.com
Date:Fri, 21 Jul 2000 03:54:00 -0700 (PDT)

Find below a spreadsheet with my very rough calculation of the value of
credit support for MG and PaperCo.

My approach is as follows:

1. Assume all contracts can be modelled as financial swaps.
2. Spread the notional trading volumes over the estimated swap tenors.
3. Calculate the value of defaulting at each period of the swap (the
default option) using Black's formula.
4. Treat the value of the default options as risky cash flows. That is
treat this value just like you would an annuity stream. By discounting back
this stream of cash flows at the original risky rate and at the risk-reduced
rate, I find the value of credit enhancement as the difference in the two
NPV's.

Please give your comments, especially if this makes no sense to you.

Stinson