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Enron Mail |
---------------------- Forwarded by Christian Werner/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT on
19/08/2000 10:06 --------------------------- Christian Werner on 19/08/2000 02:08:56 To: Vince.Kaminski@enron.com cc: Subject: extreme value theory applied to weather ---------------------- Forwarded by Christian Werner/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT on 19/08/2000 01:15 --------------------------- Christian Werner on 19/08/2000 01:55:56 To: vkamins@enron.com cc: Subject: extreme value theory applied to weather Dear Vince, Back in July, when you visited our Sydney office you mentioned extreme value theory. I am wondering whether research is looking into the application of extreme value theory to power and esp. to weather. In a recent news article it was highlighted that a trend in the industry towards t_max, t_min, etc. I am in particular referring to the news article below: http://213.219.22.254/i-wex/resources/ef290600.htm In the past we have observed a similar trend where customers are asking for t_max, t_min, or below or above precipitation structures. The choice in the past has been the burn analysis on historical data. However, we are in particular interested in the extreme events, and the application of EVT could provide a meaningful tool for the analysis. Has the research group looked into the application of EVT to weather? EVT has a long history of application in hydrology (which would cover parts of the precipitation structures...). Also, research (esp. at ETH in Zuerich) is indicating the application of EVT to V@R.... Thank you! Regards, Christian
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