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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LL= C? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314= Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713= .228.4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 83= 5 Main Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09=09 [IMAGE] = Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy I= nc. - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morn= ing please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or se= nd an email to sales@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be removed from t= his daily email please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or= send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to= be added to this daily email list please send an email to subscribe_= tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Friday, Jun 01, 2001 at = 09:03AM EST Commentary last updated Friday, Jun 01, 2001 at 09:19AM EST= Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Click here f= or a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Summary For= ecast for Fri, Jun 1, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility M= atrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enla= rge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 66 -2 ERCOT(SP) 92 +2 FRCC(SE) 87 +1 M= AAC(NE) 69 NC MAIN(CTR) 66 NC MAPP(HP) 64 +2 NPCC(NE) 68 +3 SER= C(SE) 81 -1 SPP(SP) 83 +2 WSCC(NW) 71 NC WSCC(RK) 82 NC WSCC(SW= ) 86 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 62 71 63 66 79 78 88 83 Max 65 74 68 73 84 = 82 91 87 Min 57 67 57 60 74 75 85 79 Range 8 7 11 13 9 7 6 8 StD-P = 2.3 1.9 3.3 4.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 1 -5 Discus= sion: I don't see a lot to change from my previous forecast. It is good to= see that with the exception of Day 5, the volatility of the various foreca= sts has come down showing some agreement. The Day 5 volatility may be a fu= nction as to how far West the next trough initially comes in. One of the mo= dels in my opinion is much too far West with this feature, but seems to res= olve itself fairly quickly by Day 6. In the short term, we are dealing with= a warm front spreading significant rainfall to the East Coast today. On it= s heels another cold front now in the Mississippi Valley moves East for the= weekend with more rain and cooler air behind it. The West Coast ridge slid= es East which will break down the heat especially for the Pacific NW and No= rthern Intermountain region. Some minor easing is expected farther South. T= he next trough will move into the Pac! ific NW this weekend and will reform= in the Plains early next week setting up another round of storms for the M= idwest. Late in the period, the Rockies ridge starts to reform back to the = West Coast. I am starting to notice a small warming of upper level temperat= ures in the SE. This is a seasonal trend of the Bermuda high attempting to = establish itself. It will result in some warmer air from Texas across the G= ulf Coast to the Carolina's. This is not unseasonal warmth, more a return t= o normal. Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 2, 2001. Syncrasy's Ch= oice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 66 +2 ERCOT(= SP) 93 +2 FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 77 +1 MAIN(CTR) 62 -2 MAPP(HP= ) 65 -3 NPCC(NE) 67 NC SERC(SE) 86 +3 SPP(SP) 79 -1 WSCC(NW) 6= 0 -3 WSCC(RK) 76 -2 WSCC(SW) 79 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IM= AGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 60 67 64 56 76 = 80 88 79 Max 65 71 70 68 80 86 91 84 Min 55 62 60 48 72 76 84 75 = Range 10 10 9 20 8 10 6 9 StD-P 2.7 3.5 3.2 6.0 2.7 3.1 1.7 2.6 Count = 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 3, 2001. Syncrasy'= s Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 63 NC ER= COT(SP) 92 +1 FRCC(SE) 91 +3 MAAC(NE) 73 +2 MAIN(CTR) 63 -3 MAP= P(HP) 62 -2 NPCC(NE) 69 +1 SERC(SE) 85 +3 SPP(SP) 78 -4 WSCC(NW= ) 62 -4 WSCC(RK) 65 -3 WSCC(SW) 79 -1 Range Standard Deviation= [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 60 58 63 56= 66 80 90 79 Max 64 66 69 62 70 86 93 81 Min 54 52 58 51 61 76 88 = 77 Range 9 13 11 11 8 10 5 4 StD-P 3.7 4.5 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.1 Cou= nt 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Day 4: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 4, 2001. Syncr= asy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 67 -1= ERCOT(SP) 90 +1 FRCC(SE) 91 +1 MAAC(NE) 74 +1 MAIN(CTR) 64 -1 = MAPP(HP) 61 NC NPCC(NE) 69 +2 SERC(SE) 85 +1 SPP(SP) 78 -1 WSC= C(NW) 69 -1 WSCC(RK) 66 -5 WSCC(SW) 82 NC Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 60 61 6= 2 64 64 80 88 82 Max 65 71 70 69 73 85 91 84 Min 56 55 59 63 60 76= 85 80 Range 9 16 11 6 13 9 5 3 StD-P 3.1 5.2 2.9 1.6 3.7 2.8 1.6 1.0 = Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 5, 2001. Sy= ncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 70 = +3 ERCOT(SP) 85 NC FRCC(SE) 90 +1 MAAC(NE) 76 +3 MAIN(CTR) 65 = +1 MAPP(HP) 65 -1 NPCC(NE) 70 +2 SERC(SE) 85 +3 SPP(SP) 75 -2 = WSCC(NW) 74 +1 WSCC(RK) 74 -3 WSCC(SW) 84 +2 Range Standard De= viation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 59 6= 5 61 65 68 78 80 79 Max 67 75 72 74 77 85 88 84 Min 52 46 54 48 36= 73 71 58 Range 14 28 17 26 41 12 18 26 StD-P 4.2 7.2 3.7 5.6 10.5 2.4 = 6.4 6.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 discussion: Yesterdays extreme= chill(for the season) solution of the MRF for the East has been tempered s= omewhat as I expected it would. However, there is pretty fair agreement amo= ng the long range models going into the middle of June. We have seen a bloc= king pattern in Canada for weeks now which has allowed the jet stream to ro= am farther South and stronger than normal. The only difference I see in the= block is a Westward shift of it to the central part of the country. This s= hift may be the first signs of a pattern change outside this window. It won= 't make a huge difference in the evolution of the U.S. pattern through day = 10. We should continue to see a mean ridge located over the West with a tro= ugh in the East. Other than the deep South and of course the ongoing Wester= n heat, it looks unlikely that any sustainable warmth will develop through = mid June. Th! e warmer upper levels in the South though I believe are anoth= er indicator to a change in the pattern to more typical summer after June 1= 5'th. We still have ample rainfall opportunities for the next two weeks. Ot= her than a few localized areas unusual heat feedback due to drought appears= unlikely through at least July 4'th. Day 6: Summary Forecast for Wed, J= un 6, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 66 NC ERCOT(SP) 83 -3 FRCC(SE) 89 +2 MAAC(NE) 74 +3 = MAIN(CTR) 67 -2 MAPP(HP) 72 +1 NPCC(NE) 69 +1 SERC(SE) 80 +1 S= PP(SP) 78 -2 WSCC(NW) 74 +1 WSCC(RK) 80 +1 WSCC(SW) 84 +2 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP = SW Mean 64 76 63 70 81 77 80 84 Max 69 81 70 74 83 82 87 84 Min = 56 72 59 66 79 74 72 82 Range 13 10 11 8 4 8 15 3 StD-P 5.8 3.6 2.9 2= .8 1.5 2.5 6.3 0.8 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Summary Forecast for Th= u, Jun 7, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMA= GE] ECAR(CTR) 68 NC ERCOT(SP) 86 -2 FRCC(SE) 86 NC MAAC(NE) 70 = -1 MAIN(CTR) 73 -1 MAPP(HP) 75 +1 NPCC(NE) 68 NC SERC(SE) 79 -= 1 SPP(SP) 81 -1 WSCC(NW) 74 +1 WSCC(RK) 80 +1 WSCC(SW) 84 +2 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 68 81 61 71 82 76 82 84 Max 77 87 68 74 84 80 88 86 Mi= n 59 76 56 68 81 69 74 82 Range 18 11 12 5 3 11 14 4 StD-P 7.3 4.2 = 3.4 1.9 0.8 5.3 5.9 1.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Summary Forecast f= or Fri, Jun 8, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 74 +12 ERCOT(SP) 87 +8 FRCC(SE) 86 +12 MAAC(N= E) 74 +19 MAIN(CTR) 76 +8 MAPP(HP) 77 +1 NPCC(NE) 70 +17 SERC(S= E) 81 +14 SPP(SP) 83 +3 WSCC(NW) 73 +8 WSCC(RK) 79 -2 WSCC(SW) = 83 +4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW= RK SE SP SW Mean 72 81 62 71 83 77 83 83 Max 77 84 71 78 85 83= 89 85 Min 68 79 57 66 80 70 76 82 Range 9 6 14 12 5 13 13 3 StD-P = 3.4 1.5 4.1 4.5 1.7 5.9 5.4 0.9 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Summary F= orecast for Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility= Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to en= large) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 68 -1 ERCOT(SP) 79 -2 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 = MAAC(NE) 66 NC MAIN(CTR) 71 -3 MAPP(HP) 77 +1 NPCC(NE) 61 NC S= ERC(SE) 71 -1 SPP(SP) 80 -1 WSCC(NW) 66 +3 WSCC(RK) 80 +5 WSCC(= SW) 82 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE= NW RK SE SP SW Mean 70 78 62 72 81 76 82 84 Max 71 79 62 78 8= 3 82 89 86 Min 68 75 59 66 77 72 79 82 Range 3 4 3 11 6 9 10 4 StD-= P 1.0 1.3 1.1 5.7 2.4 3.8 3.4 1.6 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Summar= y Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatil= ity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to= enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 69 -1 ERCOT(SP) 81 -2 FRCC(SE) 76 = -2 MAAC(NE) 71 NC MAIN(CTR) 69 -1 MAPP(HP) 71 +2 NPCC(NE) 63 NC= SERC(SE) 74 -2 SPP(SP) 82 NC WSCC(NW) 70 +1 WSCC(RK) 75 +3 WS= CC(SW) 83 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP = NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 62 67 62 62 68 73 77 73 Max 70 74 66 7= 0 77 74 82 84 Min 53 59 57 54 56 71 71 63 Range 16 14 9 15 21 4 11 2= 0 StD-P 7.6 6.7 4.3 7.3 9.8 1.3 5.2 10.2 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Trade= r Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays,= RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.sy= ncrasy.comor www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09 [IMAGE] 909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main w= ww.syncrasy.com 835 Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Houst= on, TX 77002 713.228.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax = 713.228.4407 Sales If you prefer to not receive future e-mails re= garding Syncrasy Products and News Updates, please REPLY to this message = and indicate REMOVE in the subject field. =09
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