|
|
Enron Mail |
Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LL= C? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314= Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 7= 13.228.4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax = 835 Main Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09=09 [IMAGE] = Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy= Inc. - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the mo= rning please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or = send an email to sales@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be removed f= rom this daily email please reply to this email with the words "CANCE= L" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com - If you would = like to be added to this daily email list please send an email to sub= scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Monday, Jun 04= , 2001 at 07:56AM EST Commentary last updated Monday, Jun 04, 2001 at 0= 9:21AM EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Cl= ick here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today:= Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 4, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cli= ck on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 68 -1 ERCOT(SP) 91 NC = FRCC(SE) 91 NC MAAC(NE) 75 NC MAIN(CTR) 65 -3 MAPP(HP) 61 +1 NP= CC(NE) 67 -1 SERC(SE) 85 NC SPP(SP) 85 -1 WSCC(NW) 63 -1 WSCC(R= K) 62 NC WSCC(SW) 78 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 63 61 64 59 62 82 90 77 Max= 68 65 70 65 66 87 93 81 Min 58 56 60 54 54 77 87 71 Range 10 10 = 10 10 12 10 6 10 StD-P 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.2 2.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 9 Day 1-5 Discussion: Short range models indicate the jet stream wil= l remain unusually amplified this week. The temperature contrast may not be= as large as the last two weeks, but rainfall and storminess look to be mor= e widespread. More important, some of the best rainfall potential is locate= d over the Gulf Coast and SE states. Most other areas East of the Rockies w= ill see above normal rainfall prospects as well as moisture flows out of th= e Gulf into a warm front set up over the Mississippi Valley. This will lift= into the Northeast midweek allowing a temporary surge of warm air to flow = North. As mentioned last week, this surge may bring temperatures back to ne= ar normal for a day or two. Additional energy later in the week from Canada= will allow our Eastern trough to amplify again sending a cold front and mo= re moderate cooling deep into dixie. Energy needs East of the Ro! ckies sti= ll look below normal this week although AC usage will be increasing especia= lly in the Southern states as the more humid air keeps night time temperatu= es up. In the West, the excessive heat from last week has broken in many a= reas. There may be another round though later in the week. The same pattern= that amplfies a trough in the East will also amplify the ridge in the West= . It appears to be set up a little farther East into the Intermountain regi= on as opposed to last weeks position right along the coast. Precipitation p= otential as is typically the case this time of year is rather limited. I am= sure there will be some lighter showers in the NW, but hardly enough to he= lp the hydro situation. The East slopes of the Rockies could see some moder= ate rains as a favorable upslope situation develops by midweek when a surfa= ce high builds in the Plains. Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 5,= 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMA= GE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE]= ECAR(CTR) 72 -1 ERCOT(SP) 90 -1 FRCC(SE) 88 -1 MAAC(NE) 77 NC= MAIN(CTR) 70 NC MAPP(HP) 63 NC NPCC(NE) 69 -1 SERC(SE) 87 NC = SPP(SP) 80 -2 WSCC(NW) 67 -2 WSCC(RK) 70 +2 WSCC(SW) 80 NC = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP = SW Mean 65 65 65 61 69 82 88 79 Max 72 69 74 67 72 87 91 82 Min = 62 61 60 54 62 78 85 73 Range 11 8 14 13 10 9 5 9 StD-P 2.6 2.5 4.2 = 3.9 2.2 3.3 1.7 2.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 3: Summary Forecast for W= ed, Jun 6, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)= [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 71 -3 ERCOT(SP) 91 NC FRCC(SE) 88 -1 MAAC(= NE) 73 -5 MAIN(CTR) 69 -1 MAPP(HP) 69 +2 NPCC(NE) 70 -2 SERC(SE= ) 84 NC SPP(SP) 81 -1 WSCC(NW) 71 +1 WSCC(RK) 77 +1 WSCC(SW) 8= 6 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW = RK SE SP SW Mean 66 71 64 66 78 80 86 84 Max 69 74 71 71 79 85 8= 9 86 Min 63 67 59 61 76 76 83 83 Range 7 6 11 10 3 9 6 3 StD-P 2.1= 2.3 3.9 3.1 1.3 3.1 2.0 1.1 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Day 4: Summary Forec= ast for Thu, Jun 7, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility M= atrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to= enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 70 NC ERCOT(SP) 90 NC FRCC(SE) 88 = -1 MAAC(NE) 70 -7 MAIN(CTR) 72 +2 MAPP(HP) 72 NC NPCC(NE) 69 +2= SERC(SE) 82 -4 SPP(SP) 83 +1 WSCC(NW) 78 +5 WSCC(RK) 81 NC WS= CC(SW) 88 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP = NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 67 75 61 73 80 77 84 85 Max 71 78 69 7= 8 83 82 88 88 Min 63 71 57 69 78 75 82 82 Range 9 7 11 8 5 8 7 6 St= D-P 2.6 2.5 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Summa= ry Forecast for Fri, Jun 8, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola= tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on = image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 72 +3 ERCOT(SP) 90 +2 FRCC(S= E) 87 -1 MAAC(NE) 72 NC MAIN(CTR) 74 +1 MAPP(HP) 76 +1 NPCC(NE)= 69 +3 SERC(SE) 81 NC SPP(SP) 83 -1 WSCC(NW) 78 +9 WSCC(RK) 83= +2 WSCC(SW) 85 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg = CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 66 74 61 68 76 75 81 79 Max 74= 82 70 78 83 82 89 85 Min 53 57 55 53 54 67 67 61 Range 21 25 15 25 = 29 15 22 24 StD-P 5.4 5.6 4.2 6.4 7.3 3.6 4.7 5.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6= Day 6-10 discussion: There should be some change to the pattern especi= ally late in the period. Most of the long range models indicate the blockin= g in Canada will ease allowing for a Northward migration of the jet stream.= In addition, there appear to be some jet stream alignment changes going on= in the Pacific that should eventually translate downstream. If these occur= , we should see a strong trough in the NW, a weaker trough in the NE and an= expanding flat ridge in the middle of the country by mid-June. Sensible we= ather changes would include substantial cooling of the West and moderate wa= rming of the North and East. The various long term models seem to be recogn= izing the change, but vary on its depth. The European is the most aggressiv= e blasting summer from the Plains into the NE by Day 10. The American MRF m= ay actually keep the East a little too cool as it has a ! more amplified tr= ough in the NE. This seems to leave me in the Canadian camp today. I expect= a more normal summer pattern to finally emerge by the middle of next week.= But, keep in mind, I am saying NORMAL, not excessive heat. The last 3-4 we= eks have seen a fairly widespread moderate to heavy rainfall occur over mos= t of the East. These moist topsoils should keep temperatures from getting o= ut of hand for awhile. Day 6: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Syn= crasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 74 +2 ERCOT(SP) 90 +1 FRCC(SE) 87 NC MAAC(NE) 74 +3 MAIN(CTR)= 76 +1 MAPP(HP) 77 +2 NPCC(NE) 70 +3 SERC(SE) 81 NC SPP(SP) 84= NC WSCC(NW) 71 +6 WSCC(RK) 83 +4 WSCC(SW) 82 +2 Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 72 81 64 65 81 77 85 80 Max 77 86 71 71 83 82 89 82 Min 67 76 58= 62 79 73 84 79 Range 10 10 13 9 4 9 5 4 StD-P 3.8 3.5 4.1 2.3 1.7 3.0 = 1.7 1.5 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, = 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 74 -2 ERCOT(SP) 91 +1 FRCC(SE) 86 -1 MAAC(NE) 75 -1 = MAIN(CTR) 77 NC MAPP(HP) 77 +1 NPCC(NE) 71 NC SERC(SE) 83 NC S= PP(SP) 86 NC WSCC(NW) 67 +1 WSCC(RK) 80 +5 WSCC(SW) 80 +1 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP = SW Mean 74 81 66 60 81 78 87 78 Max 79 86 72 67 83 83 90 81 Min = 68 78 61 57 79 74 85 75 Range 11 8 11 10 4 9 5 5 StD-P 4.5 3.4 3.6 2.= 8 1.4 3.2 1.2 2.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Summary Forecast for Mon= , Jun 11, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 74 +4 ERCOT(SP) 92 +8 FRCC(SE) 88 +12 MAAC(N= E) 75 +10 MAIN(CTR) 75 +1 MAPP(HP) 77 +3 NPCC(NE) 71 +8 SERC(SE= ) 84 +11 SPP(SP) 85 +1 WSCC(NW) 68 +21 WSCC(RK) 77 +16 WSCC(SW)= 79 +7 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE N= W RK SE SP SW Mean 75 79 67 57 79 80 88 75 Max 83 83 72 68 80 8= 4 91 79 Min 68 77 61 51 76 76 85 71 Range 14 6 11 16 4 9 6 9 StD-P = 5.6 1.8 4.3 4.7 0.9 3.0 2.0 3.4 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Summary F= orecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on imag= e to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 61 -13 ERCOT(SP) 88 +4 FRCC(SE) = 78 +2 MAAC(NE) 63 -8 MAIN(CTR) 67 -8 MAPP(HP) 73 +3 NPCC(NE) 5= 5 -14 SERC(SE) 75 +1 SPP(SP) 85 +1 WSCC(NW) 51 -2 WSCC(RK) 65 = +8 WSCC(SW) 72 -5 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg C= T HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 74 74 63 56 73 79 87 76 Max 81 8= 1 69 64 79 83 88 80 Min 67 69 57 51 71 76 85 73 Range 14 12 12 13 9 = 8 3 7 StD-P 7.0 4.7 5.7 4.8 2.9 2.9 1.4 3.0 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day= 10: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Te= mp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 60 -13 ERCOT(SP) 87 = +3 FRCC(SE) 78 +3 MAAC(NE) 58 -15 MAIN(CTR) 68 -5 MAPP(HP) 67 = -2 NPCC(NE) 52 -21 SERC(SE) 76 NC SPP(SP) 84 +5 WSCC(NW) 59 -3 = WSCC(RK) 62 -5 WSCC(SW) 77 -3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [= IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 67 62 57 52 59 75 81 = 67 Max 69 64 63 59 67 77 88 77 Min 66 58 53 44 48 72 73 57 Range = 4 7 10 15 18 4 15 21 StD-P 1.3 2.3 4.2 7.2 7.7 1.9 7.2 9.9 Count 4 4 4= 4 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMA= GE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be= viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.= com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09 [IMAGE] 909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main ww= w.syncrasy.com 835 Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Housto= n, TX 77002 713.228.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax = 713.228.4407 Sales If you prefer to not receive future e-mails reg= arding Syncrasy Products and News Updates, please REPLY to this message a= nd indicate REMOVE in the subject field. =09
|