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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LL= C? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314= Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 7= 13.228.4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax = 835 Main Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09=09 [IMAGE] = Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy= Inc. - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the mo= rning please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or = send an email to sales@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be removed f= rom this daily email please reply to this email with the words "CANCE= L" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com - If you would = like to be added to this daily email list please send an email to sub= scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Thursday, May = 31, 2001 at 09:36AM EST Commentary last updated Thursday, May 31, 2001 = at 10:09AM EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote = Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' To= day: Summary Forecast for Thu, May 31, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Te= mp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 69 +2 ERCOT(SP) 88 = +2 FRCC(SE) 90 +1 MAAC(NE) 71 +3 MAIN(CTR) 64 +1 MAPP(HP) 66 NC= NPCC(NE) 61 -1 SERC(SE) 82 -1 SPP(SP) 76 -1 WSCC(NW) 82 -1 WS= CC(RK) 77 NC WSCC(SW) 90 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMA= GE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 62 69 58 77 73 79 83 88 = Max 68 71 66 82 78 84 86 90 Min 57 66 52 67 67 74 78 83 Range 12= 5 13 15 10 10 8 7 StD-P 3.2 1.7 4.1 3.7 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.0 Count 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 9 9 Day 1-5 discussion: **** Two more closed Lows will develop in th= e Northern U.S. keeping the Western heat from spreading East.**** We remai= n in an unusually amplified pattern going into June. This should continue t= hrough and beyond the five day period. The only area of abnormal heat right= now is in the West where even the coastal areas of Northern California hit= the 90's yesterday. One more day of heat is expected before a moderate int= ensity trough pushes inland shoving the ridge position into the Intermounta= in West. As mentioned yesterday, I am not convinced of much cooling farther= South. It all may be temporary anyway as the ridge rebuilds to the West in= the 6-10 day period. Meanwhile, East of the ridge plenty of jet stream ene= rgy moves out of Canada carving out another Mississippi Valley trough that = heads East over the weekend. There will be an upper level closed low! that = moves from Minnesota to the Eastern Lakes by early next week. This feature = should contain more significant rainfall deep into the South and East as we= ll as more unusually cool air for the North and East. Late in the period, s= ome of the models bring a weaker surge of energy down from Canada carving o= ut another trough over the Northern and Central Plains. Tomorrow: Summary = Forecast for Fri, Jun 1, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatil= ity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on ima= ge to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 68 +1 ERCOT(SP) 90 +1 FRCC(SE) = 86 NC MAAC(NE) 69 -1 MAIN(CTR) 65 +2 MAPP(HP) 62 -1 NPCC(NE) 6= 6 +2 SERC(SE) 82 -1 SPP(SP) 81 +2 WSCC(NW) 71 -5 WSCC(RK) 82 += 1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT= HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 61 70 61 67 79 78 86 84 Max 68 75= 69 74 83 83 89 87 Min 56 66 56 60 74 75 83 80 Range 12 8 13 14 9 8 = 6 7 StD-P 2.8 2.1 3.9 4.7 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 3= : Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 2, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp.= Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cl= ick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 64 -1 ERCOT(SP) 91 +3 = FRCC(SE) 87 +1 MAAC(NE) 76 +3 MAIN(CTR) 64 -2 MAPP(HP) 68 -2 N= PCC(NE) 67 -2 SERC(SE) 83 +2 SPP(SP) 80 NC WSCC(NW) 63 -2 WSCC(= RK) 78 -2 WSCC(SW) 80 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]= Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 60 70 64 57 80 77 86 79 Ma= x 65 74 69 63 84 83 89 82 Min 56 65 60 51 75 74 84 77 Range 9 9 9= 12 9 9 5 5 StD-P 2.8 3.3 2.8 4.6 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7= Day 4: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 3, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 63 -5 ERCOT(SP) = 92 +2 FRCC(SE) 88 NC MAAC(NE) 71 -1 MAIN(CTR) 66 -4 MAPP(HP) 6= 3 -3 NPCC(NE) 68 +1 SERC(SE) 82 -1 SPP(SP) 82 NC WSCC(NW) 66 N= C WSCC(RK) 69 -4 WSCC(SW) 81 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 59 65 61 61 70 76 8= 9 80 Max 65 74 68 66 75 82 92 82 Min 53 58 57 57 64 73 87 78 Rang= e 11 16 11 9 11 9 5 3 StD-P 4.4 5.3 2.7 3.0 3.7 2.5 1.4 1.1 Count 6 6 = 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 4, 2001. Syncrasy's Ch= oice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 68 -5 = ERCOT(SP) 90 NC FRCC(SE) 89 +1 MAAC(NE) 73 -3 MAIN(CTR) 64 -6 = MAPP(HP) 61 -10 NPCC(NE) 67 -2 SERC(SE) 84 NC SPP(SP) 78 -2 WSC= C(NW) 70 +3 WSCC(RK) 71 -4 WSCC(SW) 82 +1 Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 59 66 5= 9 66 71 78 86 81 Max 64 75 68 70 77 84 88 83 Min 54 59 56 65 66 75= 83 80 Range 10 15 13 6 11 9 5 4 StD-P 3.9 5.5 3.7 1.7 4.2 2.5 2.1 1.2 = Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 6-10 Discussion: I don't see a lot of change= to the pattern going forward to June 10 though the models do offer differi= ng opinions. The revered MRF has done a 180 on its forecast. For days now, = it has advertised a NE surge of the ridge and heat into the Eastern U.S. To= day, it shows another deep trough in the East for Day 10 and is actually th= e coldest looking of the models. I didnt accept the warm solution earlier, = but I think this is too extreme. The markets may not agree with me as there= appears to be some price weakness today. On the other extreme we have the = European model which I think brings the warm air too far North into the Pla= ins but does acknowledge weak troughing in the NE. This brings me to the Ca= nadian and U.S. Navy models which in my opinion hold the closest answer. I = expect the setup to be a ridge in the inland West with a trough across the = Great L! akes and NE. Most of the West will remain above normal and the Eas= t below normal. The East will also continue to see the potential for above = normal rains. Day 6: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 5, 2001. Syncrasy's C= hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 67 -7= ERCOT(SP) 85 -4 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 73 -2 MAIN(CTR) 64 -10= MAPP(HP) 66 -7 NPCC(NE) 69 -2 SERC(SE) 82 -2 SPP(SP) 77 -6 WS= CC(NW) 72 +4 WSCC(RK) 77 NC WSCC(SW) 82 +2 Range Standard Devi= ation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 62 72 = 61 68 79 78 82 81 Max 69 81 70 72 83 83 87 84 Min 54 64 58 66 76 7= 6 76 79 Range 16 17 12 6 7 8 11 5 StD-P 6.6 6.7 3.4 1.7 3.0 2.1 4.7 1.6= Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 6, 2001. = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 66 -9 ERCOT(SP) 85 -4 FRCC(SE) 86 -2 MAAC(NE) 71 -5 MAIN(C= TR) 69 -6 MAPP(HP) 72 -2 NPCC(NE) 68 -1 SERC(SE) 79 -5 SPP(SP) = 80 -5 WSCC(NW) 73 +2 WSCC(RK) 79 +2 WSCC(SW) 82 +2 Range St= andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me= an 65 77 62 71 81 77 82 83 Max 77 87 69 73 84 80 88 86 Min 53 70= 60 69 79 72 75 81 Range 24 17 9 4 5 8 13 4 StD-P 9.8 6.7 2.5 1.4 1.7 3= .9 5.6 1.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun = 7, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAG= E] ECAR(CTR) 68 +3 ERCOT(SP) 88 +7 FRCC(SE) 87 +8 MAAC(NE) 71 = +14 MAIN(CTR) 73 +4 MAPP(HP) 74 -3 NPCC(NE) 68 +19 SERC(SE) 80 = +4 SPP(SP) 83 -1 WSCC(NW) 72 +7 WSCC(RK) 79 -1 WSCC(SW) 82 +5 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 68 79 60 72 82 76 83 83 Max 77 84 68 78 84 83 89 85 M= in 60 75 56 69 80 67 77 81 Range 17 9 13 9 4 16 12 4 StD-P 6.4 3.1 = 3.9 3.0 1.4 7.0 5.0 1.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Summary Forecast f= or Fri, Jun 8, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix= [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enla= rge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 62 -10 ERCOT(SP) 79 -1 FRCC(SE) 74 -2 = MAAC(NE) 55 -10 MAIN(CTR) 68 -6 MAPP(HP) 75 +1 NPCC(NE) 53 +1 S= ERC(SE) 67 -10 SPP(SP) 80 -5 WSCC(NW) 65 +2 WSCC(RK) 81 +3 WSCC= (SW) 79 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 69 77 57 71 81 74 83 82 Max 71 78 62 78 = 83 82 89 86 Min 68 75 54 65 77 68 79 79 Range 3 3 8 13 6 13 9 6 StD= -P 1.1 1.2 3.4 6.3 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.0 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Summa= ry Forecast for Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola= tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on = image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 69 -3 ERCOT(SP) 81 NC FRCC(S= E) 75 -2 MAAC(NE) 66 -3 MAIN(CTR) 74 +1 MAPP(HP) 75 -1 NPCC(NE)= 61 +7 SERC(SE) 73 -5 SPP(SP) 82 -4 WSCC(NW) 63 NC WSCC(RK) 75= -1 WSCC(SW) 79 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg = CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 63 68 60 59 69 72 76 71 Max 72= 75 63 63 80 73 81 79 Min 53 59 57 54 56 71 71 63 Range 19 15 6 9 24= 3 10 16 StD-P 8.9 7.2 2.6 4.0 10.9 0.9 4.8 8.0 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 = Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma di= splays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from= www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMA= GE] =09 =09=09 [IMAGE] 909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main ww= w.syncrasy.com 835 Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Housto= n, TX 77002 713.228.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax = 713.228.4407 Sales If you prefer to not receive future e-mails reg= arding Syncrasy Products and News Updates, please REPLY to this message a= nd indicate REMOVE in the subject field. =09
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