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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LL= C? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314= Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 7= 13.228.4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax = 835 Main Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09=09 [IMAGE] = Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy= Inc. - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the mo= rning please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or = send an email to sales@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be removed f= rom this daily email please reply to this email with the words "CANCE= L" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com - If you would = like to be added to this daily email list please send an email to sub= scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Tuesday, Jun 0= 5, 2001 at 08:06AM EST Commentary last updated Tuesday, Jun 05, 2001 at= 08:57AM EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote = Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Toda= y: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 5, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (C= lick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 71 -1 ERCOT(SP) 89 -1= FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 78 +1 MAIN(CTR) 69 -1 MAPP(HP) 63 NC = NPCC(NE) 70 NC SERC(SE) 86 NC SPP(SP) 81 +1 WSCC(NW) 63 -4 WSCC= (RK) 70 NC WSCC(SW) 80 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 64 65 66 57 69 82 86 79 M= ax 71 69 72 65 73 88 88 82 Min 60 61 62 52 62 78 83 74 Range 10 8= 10 13 10 10 4 8 StD-P 2.3 2.1 3.6 4.2 2.0 3.3 1.6 1.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 9 Day 1-5 Discussion: A busy period is expected for many as the atm= osphere is about to transition from spring to summer. Over the last several= days we have seen the Gulf Coast and SE states become quite humid as the f= low has come out of the Gulf. There is some upper level energy in this regi= on as well and the waters off the Texas and Louisiana coasts are seeing som= e very heavy rains this morning. This tropical moisture will come ashore la= ter today and spread NE over the next 48-72 hours. Combine that with anothe= r cold front and upper air trough sweeping in from the Northern Plains and = you run the risk of seeing some significant rains from the Plains Eastward = the rest of this week. Temperatures will still run below normal on average,= but a brief bubble of warm air is coming North with a warm front in the Oh= io Valley. AC usage may increase a little midweek due to the ! higher humid= ities which will keep overnight temperatures up. Of course most of this wil= l be swept away late this week when the cold front moves through bringing o= ne more shot of cooler drier air from Canada for the weekend. This should n= ot be as strong though as the last several rounds. In the West, the recent= cooling trend will relax. The ridge will rebuild especially from the SW in= to the Rockies. More heat is anticipated later this week particularly over = the Southern half. It does not look at this time that any significant heat = will build West to the coast, but rather remain in the interior. I also don= 't see any significant precipitation over the next 5 days. Only light amoun= ts are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Tomorrow: S= ummary Forecast for Wed, Jun 6, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click= on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 72 +1 ERCOT(SP) 91 -1 FR= CC(SE) 87 -1 MAAC(NE) 75 +1 MAIN(CTR) 70 +2 MAPP(HP) 70 +1 NPCC= (NE) 70 NC SERC(SE) 84 NC SPP(SP) 83 +2 WSCC(NW) 68 -3 WSCC(RK)= 76 -1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 67 71 65 63 77 81 86 84 Max = 72 77 74 69 79 86 90 87 Min 63 66 59 58 71 76 82 79 Range 9 10 15 = 11 8 10 7 8 StD-P 2.8 2.9 4.6 4.0 1.9 3.1 2.3 1.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9= Day 3: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 7, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 72 +2 ERCOT(SP) = 92 +2 FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 -1 MAIN(CTR) 74 +2 MAPP(HP) 7= 3 +1 NPCC(NE) 71 +2 SERC(SE) 84 +2 SPP(SP) 85 +1 WSCC(NW) 74 -= 3 WSCC(RK) 79 -2 WSCC(SW) 88 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 69 74 63 70 79 79 8= 7 86 Max 74 79 70 75 82 84 91 89 Min 65 69 58 66 75 76 81 83 Rang= e 9 10 12 9 6 8 10 5 StD-P 2.5 3.4 4.1 3.0 2.1 2.7 3.0 1.7 Count 7 7 7= 7 7 7 7 7 Day 4: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 8, 2001. Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 76 +4 = ERCOT(SP) 92 +3 FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 77 +5 MAIN(CTR) 76 +2 M= APP(HP) 75 -1 NPCC(NE) 73 +4 SERC(SE) 84 +3 SPP(SP) 85 +2 WSCC(= NW) 77 -1 WSCC(RK) 81 -2 WSCC(SW) 86 +1 Range Standard Deviati= on [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 71 76 65 = 71 81 78 86 84 Max 76 81 74 77 83 85 91 87 Min 66 71 62 65 78 75 8= 0 82 Range 10 10 13 12 5 9 11 5 StD-P 2.4 3.7 3.9 2.7 1.9 2.3 3.3 1.5 = Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Sy= ncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 76 +2 ERCOT(SP) 93 +3 FRCC(SE) 88 +2 MAAC(NE) 77 +3 MAIN(CTR= ) 77 NC MAPP(HP) 77 NC NPCC(NE) 73 +3 SERC(SE) 86 +5 SPP(SP) 8= 6 +1 WSCC(NW) 73 +2 WSCC(RK) 82 -1 WSCC(SW) 85 +3 Range Stan= dard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean= 70 76 64 63 77 78 83 79 Max 77 85 74 73 84 86 92 86 Min 59 58 5= 8 50 54 70 69 60 Range 18 27 16 23 30 16 23 26 StD-P 5.7 6.9 3.5 4.7 7.= 7 3.2 5.2 6.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 discussion: The screamin= g message in the models for next week is a warming trend in the East. I hav= e heard the yelling on several occasions the last three weeks, but there se= ems to be some support for it now. Pattern changes in the Pacific, partiucl= arly in Asia and near Hawaii support the ridge expanding NE out of the Inte= rmountain West next week. The question becomes one of how far East and how = strong. They all agree the ridge expands from the Plains to the Great Lakes= . However, the U.S. and Canadian models expand all the way to the NE while = the European does not. The key will be where the Western U.S. trough sets u= p. The U.S. model says its well off the coast, the others near or slightly = inland. I have said for awhile that the next change would feature troughs n= ear both coasts and a ridge in the middle. I see no reason to change that v= iew for now. ! In addition, recent rains not to mention the potential for m= ore the next several days will leave the ground moist enough to keep any ma= jor heat from developing. Ultimately, I see next week running near normal W= est and East and slightly above normal Central and South. Day 6: Summary F= orecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on imag= e to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 74 NC ERCOT(SP) 94 +3 FRCC(SE) = 89 +3 MAAC(NE) 76 +1 MAIN(CTR) 78 +1 MAPP(HP) 79 +2 NPCC(NE) 72= NC SERC(SE) 86 +3 SPP(SP) 87 +2 WSCC(NW) 68 +1 WSCC(RK) 82 +1= WSCC(SW) 83 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT = HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 75 80 65 62 83 80 87 82 Max 80 87 = 73 68 84 86 93 84 Min 68 75 61 56 81 77 83 79 Range 12 12 12 12 3 9 = 10 4 StD-P 4.8 4.2 3.9 4.0 1.2 2.3 3.3 1.5 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day = 7: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (C= lick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 77 +3 ERCOT(SP) 94 +2= FRCC(SE) 89 +1 MAAC(NE) 77 +2 MAIN(CTR) 80 +5 MAPP(HP) 77 +1 = NPCC(NE) 72 +1 SERC(SE) 85 +1 SPP(SP) 88 +2 WSCC(NW) 69 +1 WSCC= (RK) 77 +1 WSCC(SW) 83 +4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 75 78 66 60 80 81 88 80 M= ax 79 86 74 69 82 86 92 83 Min 70 71 61 54 78 77 83 76 Range 9 15= 12 15 4 9 9 7 StD-P 3.8 5.8 4.4 3.7 1.5 3.1 3.4 2.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 = 5 5 Day 8: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][= IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 80 +20 ERCOT(= SP) 93 +5 FRCC(SE) 89 +11 MAAC(NE) 80 +17 MAIN(CTR) 79 +12 MAPP= (HP) 75 +2 NPCC(NE) 76 +21 SERC(SE) 87 +12 SPP(SP) 88 +3 WSCC(N= W) 70 +19 WSCC(RK) 76 +11 WSCC(SW) 82 +9 Range Standard Deviat= ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 76 77 68= 60 78 82 88 79 Max 79 83 78 70 79 87 92 82 Min 74 72 61 54 73 78 = 84 78 Range 6 11 16 16 7 8 7 4 StD-P 2.2 3.8 3.9 4.0 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.3 C= ount 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001. Syn= crasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 75 +16 ERCOT(SP) 88 +1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 75 +17 MAIN(CT= R) 76 +9 MAPP(HP) 73 +6 NPCC(NE) 69 +18 SERC(SE) 79 +3 SPP(SP) = 90 +6 WSCC(NW) 64 +5 WSCC(RK) 71 +8 WSCC(SW) 78 +1 Range St= andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me= an 76 75 67 65 75 80 87 81 Max 80 80 71 67 76 82 89 85 Min 75 72= 61 64 73 78 85 78 Range 5 8 10 3 4 4 4 7 StD-P 1.8 2.6 4.0 0.9 1.1 1.8= 1.7 2.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14= , 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE= ] ECAR(CTR) 75 +12 ERCOT(SP) 86 -2 FRCC(SE) 78 -2 MAAC(NE) 76 = +18 MAIN(CTR) 73 +4 MAPP(HP) 68 NC NPCC(NE) 69 +14 SERC(SE) 78 = +3 SPP(SP) 84 +6 WSCC(NW) 68 +2 WSCC(RK) 71 +4 WSCC(SW) 80 -1 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 69 64 65 57 62 76 79 70 Max 73 68 71 68 74 78 87 80 M= in 62 58 56 45 47 73 71 59 Range 11 10 15 23 27 5 15 21 StD-P 4.1 4= .3 5.8 10.6 12.1 2.2 7.3 10.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is = designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall?= and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com o= r www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09 [IMAGE] 909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main ww= w.syncrasy.com 835 Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Housto= n, TX 77002 713.228.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax = 713.228.4407 Sales If you prefer to not receive future e-mails reg= arding Syncrasy Products and News Updates, please REPLY to this message a= nd indicate REMOVE in the subject field. =09
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