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Syncrasy - Weather for Business [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LL= C? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314= Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 7= 13.228.4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax = 835 Main Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09=09 [IMAGE] = Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy= Inc. - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the mo= rning please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or = send an email to sales@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be removed f= rom this daily email please reply to this email with the words "CANCE= L" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com - If you would = like to be added to this daily email list please send an email to sub= scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Wednesday, Jun= 06, 2001 at 09:36AM EST Commentary last updated Wednesday, Jun 06, 200= 1 at 09:47AM EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote= Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' = Today: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 6, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta = Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 74 +2 ERCOT(SP) 89= -1 FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 74 -1 MAIN(CTR) 72 +1 MAPP(HP) 68 = -2 NPCC(NE) 71 +1 SERC(SE) 85 +1 SPP(SP) 82 NC WSCC(NW) 69 +1 = WSCC(RK) 75 -1 WSCC(SW) 85 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I= MAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 68 69 66 64 76 81 86 8= 3 Max 74 74 73 69 78 87 88 86 Min 64 65 60 58 70 77 84 78 Range = 10 9 13 11 8 10 4 8 StD-P 2.6 2.4 4.1 3.5 2.0 3.4 1.4 1.8 Count 9 9 9 9= 9 9 9 9 Day 1-5 Discussion: For the second year in a row, early season= Tropical development takes place in the Gulf of Mexico. We were acutely aw= are of t-storms yesterday along the Texas and Louisiana coasts and then in = the afternoon Allison was born. She came ashore last night in SE Texas and = is located north of Houston. The surface circulation should disappear later= today, but the remnants may hang around for quite sometime. Some models su= ggest this well into next week. Combine this with a front that approaches f= rom the North and stalls over the region towards the weekend and you have a= recipe for very heavy rains. In the extreme, you could see some areas get = well over a foot of rain the next several days in Louisiana, Mississippi, a= nd Alabama. The rest of the Gulf Coast into the SE and Tennessee Valley sho= uld see significant rain as well from these features. ! The rest of the sh= ort term forecast appears as advertised earlier in the week. A cold front i= n the Midwest now gets to the East coast by the weekend. This brings more s= cattered Showers and T-storms to areas East of the Mississippi. Another dip= in the jet stream follows this front for the East this weekend into early = next week. The trough is not expected to be as strong as the last several s= o the air will not be as cool. Still, it looks like low AC demand for much = of the East into early next week and lower than normal demand in the South = due to the heavy rain threat. The ridge reforms later this week in the Inte= rior West. Warmer than normal temperatures spread from the Desert SW into t= he Rockies and Plains. Temperatures should remain moderate from the Pacific= NW into the Northern Rockies. Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun = 7, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAG= E] ECAR(CTR) 75 +2 ERCOT(SP) 87 -5 FRCC(SE) 89 +1 MAAC(NE) 75 = +7 MAIN(CTR) 74 NC MAPP(HP) 73 -1 NPCC(NE) 73 +3 SERC(SE) 82 -2= SPP(SP) 82 -3 WSCC(NW) 75 +1 WSCC(RK) 78 -1 WSCC(SW) 87 -1 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE S= P SW Mean 70 73 67 70 78 79 85 85 Max 75 78 74 75 81 85 88 87 Min= 66 68 60 61 74 75 82 80 Range 9 10 14 13 7 10 6 8 StD-P 2.8 2.8 5.= 2 3.2 2.1 2.7 1.6 1.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 3: Summary Forecast for= Fri, Jun 8, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarg= e) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 76 NC ERCOT(SP) 88 -5 FRCC(SE) 88 NC MAA= C(NE) 79 +1 MAIN(CTR) 77 NC MAPP(HP) 77 +2 NPCC(NE) 72 -1 SERC(= SE) 83 -1 SPP(SP) 84 -1 WSCC(NW) 75 -2 WSCC(RK) 82 +1 WSCC(SW) = 87 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW= RK SE SP SW Mean 72 76 66 68 81 79 84 85 Max 77 79 75 75 85 84= 87 87 Min 67 74 62 65 78 76 82 84 Range 10 5 13 11 7 8 5 4 StD-P = 2.9 1.7 4.8 3.7 1.9 2.7 1.7 1.4 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Day 4: Summary Fo= recast for Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit= y Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image= to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 77 +2 ERCOT(SP) 91 -2 FRCC(SE) 8= 8 -1 MAAC(NE) 77 NC MAIN(CTR) 79 +3 MAPP(HP) 80 +3 NPCC(NE) 73 = NC SERC(SE) 85 -1 SPP(SP) 87 +2 WSCC(NW) 72 -1 WSCC(RK) 85 +2 = WSCC(SW) 84 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT = HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 73 80 65 67 83 79 86 83 Max 79 83 7= 4 72 86 85 90 85 Min 70 78 61 63 80 76 83 81 Range 9 5 13 10 6 9 7 3= StD-P 2.3 2.0 3.9 3.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.4 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: S= ummary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click= on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 78 +4 ERCOT(SP) 93 -1 FR= CC(SE) 89 -1 MAAC(NE) 78 +2 MAIN(CTR) 82 +4 MAPP(HP) 81 +3 NPCC= (NE) 74 +3 SERC(SE) 87 +1 SPP(SP) 90 +3 WSCC(NW) 67 -1 WSCC(RK)= 83 +1 WSCC(SW) 83 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 73 78 65 58 78 79 84 78 Max = 81 86 75 67 85 87 93 83 Min 63 63 60 48 57 71 69 58 Range 18 23 16= 19 28 16 24 25 StD-P 3.7 5.9 3.4 5.5 7.1 2.9 5.1 6.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6= 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion: There appears to be considerable disagreement= in the models today with regards to the longer range. With that in mind, I= will leave my predictions from earlier in the week intact until I see evid= ence from the actual weather that a change is in order. I will leave it to = others to flip-flop daily depending upon what a particular model does. Most= of the modelling shows evidence of troughs near both coasts with a ridge i= n the middle. The disagreements are on strength and size. The American mode= ls take on more of a status quo look with the potential for another deep Gr= eat Lakes/Northeast trough late next week. Granted this has been the patter= n the last month, but it seems overdone for Mid June. The European and Cana= dian models meanwhile expand the Continental U.S. Ridge more than I am comf= ortable with. The European in particular may have some forec! asters scream= ing heatwave next week. Given the recent heavy rains in most of the Eastern= two thirds of the country, this too is overdone. So, a compromise still lo= oks to be the best solution at this point. Therefore, I see a definite warm= up in the five day period, but anything much above normal will have a toug= h time getting East of the Mississippi. Day 6: Summary Forecast for Mon,= Jun 11, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 82 +5 ERCOT(SP) 93 NC FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE)= 81 +5 MAIN(CTR) 83 +3 MAPP(HP) 78 +1 NPCC(NE) 75 +2 SERC(SE) = 89 +3 SPP(SP) 90 +2 WSCC(NW) 64 -5 WSCC(RK) 77 -1 WSCC(SW) 82 = -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK = SE SP SW Mean 76 78 67 57 80 82 89 81 Max 81 83 77 64 83 88 93 8= 3 Min 74 72 63 50 77 79 87 80 Range 7 11 14 14 6 9 6 3 StD-P 2.2 4= .5 4.1 5.6 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Summary Forecas= t for Tue, Jun 12, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Mat= rix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to e= nlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 82 +2 ERCOT(SP) 93 NC FRCC(SE) 89 NC= MAAC(NE) 83 +2 MAIN(CTR) 80 +1 MAPP(HP) 73 -2 NPCC(NE) 78 +1 = SERC(SE) 88 +1 SPP(SP) 87 NC WSCC(NW) 69 -2 WSCC(RK) 72 -4 WSCC= (SW) 81 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 76 74 68 61 74 82 89 80 Max 78 84 79 69 = 83 88 92 82 Min 74 65 61 58 66 79 88 80 Range 4 19 19 10 17 9 4 2 S= tD-P 1.5 6.9 5.2 3.0 6.3 2.6 1.2 0.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Summ= ary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vol= atility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on= image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 79 +4 ERCOT(SP) 92 +4 FRCC(= SE) 90 +11 MAAC(NE) 82 +8 MAIN(CTR) 76 NC MAPP(HP) 70 -3 NPCC(N= E) 78 +9 SERC(SE) 88 +9 SPP(SP) 82 -8 WSCC(NW) 72 +7 WSCC(RK) = 73 +2 WSCC(SW) 82 +4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Re= g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 75 70 70 67 74 82 87 80 Max = 81 78 79 72 78 88 89 82 Min 69 61 64 64 70 80 84 79 Range 12 18 15 8= 9 8 6 4 StD-P 4.8 7.2 4.8 2.1 3.3 2.3 2.5 0.9 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 = Day 9: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta = Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 68 -6 ERCOT(SP) 85= NC FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 74 -2 MAIN(CTR) 64 -9 MAPP(HP) 62 = -6 NPCC(NE) 67 -2 SERC(SE) 79 +1 SPP(SP) 75 -10 WSCC(NW) 74 +6 = WSCC(RK) 74 +3 WSCC(SW) 80 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [= IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 72 71 70 73 76 80 86 = 81 Max 81 76 72 74 77 82 89 82 Min 64 68 69 71 74 79 83 80 Range = 16 8 3 3 3 3 6 2 StD-P 7.6 3.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.9 0.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4= 4 4 4 Day 10: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice= : Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 61 -8 ERC= OT(SP) 84 NC FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 70 -2 MAIN(CTR) 61 -8 MAPP= (HP) 62 -5 NPCC(NE) 65 -3 SERC(SE) 77 -1 SPP(SP) 77 NC WSCC(NW)= 80 +7 WSCC(RK) 78 +4 WSCC(SW) 80 -2 Range Standard Deviation = [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 64 63 67 65 = 67 76 78 70 Max 68 69 69 80 80 77 83 80 Min 61 58 67 49 52 74 73 5= 9 Range 7 11 2 31 29 4 10 21 StD-P 3.2 5.5 0.8 14.8 13.7 1.5 4.7 10.1 = Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is designed around and formatted f= or the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary= can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or ww= w.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09 [IMAGE] 909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main ww= w.syncrasy.com 835 Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Housto= n, TX 77002 713.228.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax = 713.228.4407 Sales If you prefer to not receive future e-mails reg= arding Syncrasy Products and News Updates, please REPLY to this message a= nd indicate REMOVE in the subject field. =09
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