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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Jan 11, 2002 at 07:= 35AM EST Commentary last updated: Friday, Jan 11, 2002 at 09:42AM EST M= eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulation= s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA= /AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A= MS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe= Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of '= Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Friday, January 11, 2002 S= yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 41 +1 ERCOT(SP) 58 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 45 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(= HP) 42 +4 NPCC(NE) 39 -1 SERC(SE) 59 +2 SPP(SP) 55 +5 WSCC(NW) 45 +2 WSCC(R= K) 42 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg = CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 40 38 43 33 59 53 57 Max 42 47 42 46 42 63 = 58 62 Min 34 35 36 39 26 55 47 53 Range 8 12 6 7 16 8 11 9 StD-P 2.5 3.6 1.= 4 2.0 4.2 2.1 2.9 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each= Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: = Big Storm may form off the New England coast this weekend. Energy from th= e Pacific criss crosses the country next week. Arctic air gets closer but r= emains North of the border. The New England storm will be a near miss it a= ppears this weekend as it bombs out to sea. Perhaps Eastern Mass. gets a br= ush by but otherwise its a light rain/snow wind event. The next system of n= ote comes in to the NW this weekend and develops low pressure in the Centra= l Plains by Tuesday. North of the track even though temperatures remain abo= ve normal, they won't be of the record warmth this week. It will be cold en= ough to lay down some snow North of 35 degrees Latitude. The SE then starts= to warm up relative to normal as high pressure slips off the coast. While = it may be a seasonably active period, five day temperature numbers wil! l l= ikely average above normal nationwide. Tomorrow: Saturday, January 12, = 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 41 +4 ERCOT(SP) 60 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 44 +4 MAIN(CTR) 38 = +1 MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 50 -2 WSCC(NW) 45 += 2 WSCC(RK) 43 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 39 36 42 37 56 53 58 Max 42 47 42 4= 6 43 63 58 62 Min 33 33 31 38 30 52 46 54 Range 9 14 11 8 13 11 12 8 StD-P = 2.4 4.0 3.1 2.0 3.7 3.1 3.7 2.6 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here t= o See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Sund= ay, January 13, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlar= ge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 -4 ERCOT(SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 44 = NC MAIN(CTR) 34 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +5 SERC(SE) 55 NC SPP(SP) 52 = +2 WSCC(NW) 37 NC WSCC(RK) 35 +2 WSCC(SW) 59 NC Range Standard Deviatio= n [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 37 36 36 32 52 55 5= 6 Max 38 43 39 45 43 59 61 61 Min 28 33 33 31 24 47 49 52 Range 10 10 6 14 = 19 12 12 9 StD-P 3.0 2.6 1.8 3.5 5.2 4.2 3.1 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12= 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat= rix Day 4: Monday, January 14, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click= on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 -3 ERCOT(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) = 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 38 -2 MAIN(CTR) 34 NC MAPP(HP) 29 +2 NPCC(NE) 28 -2 SERC(SE)= 55 NC SPP(SP) 48 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 +3 WSCC(SW) 57 -1 Range= Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 3= 2 32 34 31 54 54 54 Max 35 39 38 40 38 58 60 59 Min 31 27 24 30 24 50 47 49= Range 4 12 14 10 14 8 13 10 StD-P 1.3 3.9 5.3 2.8 4.4 2.7 4.0 2.9 Count 10= 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 Syncrasy's Choi= ce: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCOT(= SP) 64 +5 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 39 -5 MAIN(CTR) 35 +4 MAPP(HP) 27 +4 NPCC= (NE) 28 -3 SERC(SE) 56 +2 SPP(SP) 49 +8 WSCC(NW) 38 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(= SW) 56 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK= SE SP SW Mean 32 30 30 34 27 53 58 51 Max 34 35 37 39 36 58 61 57 Min 28 2= 5 20 29 19 47 53 46 Range 6 10 17 10 17 11 8 11 StD-P 1.5 2.4 4.8 2.8 5.2 3= .3 2.6 3.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo= recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: I continu= e to see forecasts in the 6-10 day period calling for cold weather. The NWS= outlook is below normal almost nationwide. But, notice they go near normal= in the Northern Plains. That is significant as it refers to source region = of air masses. If the North is above normal short term and near normal mid = term then where is the alleged arctic air coming from? What may actually ha= ppen is a re-development of the broad trough occurs over the Eastern half o= f the country next week. That is straight out of the MRF playbook. The oper= ational runs of the Canadian and European do not concur. I certainly accept= no ridge in the Eastern U.S. but the bottom line in my view is this still = is not a very cold pattern. The NWS had NO ONE , not one location above nor= mal in their 6-10 day period. I think most of the South and East w! ill run= above normal during the period, just not excessively so. The North and Wes= t will run close to normal. Interestingly enough, the European day 10 looks= to be the coldest of the medium range models. Since it seems to be my favo= rite this winter, there could be some credibility to some arctic air the la= st 10 days of the month. But, even its appearance makes it difficult in my = view for any real cold to get very far South. Day 6: Wednesday, January= 16, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's= Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 +4 E= RCOT(SP) 58 +3 FRCC(SE) 72 +2 MAAC(NE) 43 +2 MAIN(CTR) 29 NC MAPP(HP) 19 -2= NPCC(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 54 +2 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 30 NC = WSCC(SW) 56 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 27 32 36 24 55 56 50 Max 34 30 36 42 32 59 64 56 Min= 24 20 28 31 15 50 48 44 Range 10 10 8 11 17 9 16 12 StD-P 1.8 1.9 1.5 3.3 = 5.3 2.6 5.2 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forec= ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Thursday, January 17, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(C= TR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 56 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +4 MAAC(NE) 43 +5 MAIN(CTR) 27 -1 MAP= P(HP) 21 -3 NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE) 51 +2 SPP(SP) 44 +2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC= (RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 57 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Re= g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 28 35 37 26 56 52 51 Max 33 32 41 42 35 6= 2 63 57 Min 22 23 30 33 19 51 40 46 Range 11 9 11 9 16 11 23 11 StD-P 2.4 2= .9 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 7.3 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each We= ather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Friday, January = 18, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE= ] ECAR(CTR) 28 -1 ERCOT(SP) 52 +8 FRCC(SE) 63 +1 MAAC(NE) 34 +5 MAIN(CTR)= 26 -5 MAPP(HP) 20 -13 NPCC(NE) 35 +9 SERC(SE) 42 +2 SPP(SP) 37 -3 WSCC(NW)= 38 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -7 WSCC(SW) 51 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [= IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 26 32 38 26 53 52 52 Max 31 31= 34 42 33 60 60 58 Min 23 24 26 34 20 46 45 49 Range 8 7 8 8 13 14 15 9 StD= -P 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 4.1 4.2 3.7 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See= Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Saturday,= January 19, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)= [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 28 -3 ERCOT(SP) 48 -2 FRCC(SE) 69 +7 MAAC(NE) 38 +3 = MAIN(CTR) 17 -14 MAPP(HP) 18 -13 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 46 +2 SPP(SP) 38 -= 5 WSCC(NW) 36 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 51 -2 Range Standard Deviation= [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 29 30 36 30 51 50 52= Max 26 30 33 42 35 55 54 58 Min 14 24 25 34 26 45 46 49 Range 12 6 8 8 9 1= 0 8 9 StD-P 3.0 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Her= e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10= : Sunday, January 20, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility M= atrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to= enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 25 -3 ERCOT(SP) 60 +6 FRCC(SE) 63 +3 MAAC(N= E) 34 NC MAIN(CTR) 29 -5 MAPP(HP) 27 -10 NPCC(NE) 28 -5 SERC(SE) 43 +1 SPP(= SP) 45 -3 WSCC(NW) 33 -5 WSCC(RK) 22 -9 WSCC(SW) 49 -5 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 25 22 30 21 = 44 52 42 Max 28 29 29 33 24 48 57 49 Min 14 18 11 26 16 37 44 34 Range 14 1= 1 18 7 8 11 13 15 StD-P 5.7 4.2 5.5 3.0 2.1 4.2 3.4 6.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6= 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr= ix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasm= a displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed = from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com = [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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