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Syncrasy - Weather for Business=20 =09 Syncrasy, LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Ave= nue Suite 1314 Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: = 713.228.4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 9= 70.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 = =09=09 Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and= APB Energy Inc. - If you would like to receive this product first thin= g in the morning please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscriptio= n rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com - If you would like to b= e removed from this daily email please reply to this email with the w= ords "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com - If= you would like to be added to this daily email list please send an e= mail to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Frid= ay, Jun 08, 2001 at 07:46AM EST Commentary last updated Friday, Jun 08,= 2001 at 08:47AM EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Q= uote Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' = Today: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 8, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: De= lta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR= (CTR) 76 +1 ERCOT(SP) 87 NC FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 80 +2 MAIN(= CTR) 77 +1 MAPP(HP) 77 NC NPCC(NE) 77 +3 SERC(SE) 83 NC SPP(SP)= 83 NC WSCC(NW) 75 NC WSCC(RK) 81 -1 WSCC(SW) 87 +1 Range S= tandard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 72 76 70= 69 79 80 84 85 Max 77 81 77 76 83 84 87 89 Min 67 73 64 62 76 76 = 81 80 Range 10 7 14 13 7 8 6 9 StD-P 3.1 1.8 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.6 C= ount 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 1-5 Discussion: The Gulf Coast and Southeast = continue to be the highlight regions due to their heavy rain potential into= early next week. The remnants of Allison may still be spinning in the regi= on early next week. Since the system has started moving SSW toward the Gulf= Waters, speculation may intensify to the possibility of regeneration. I st= ill don't expect it, but I can not dismiss the potential entirely. Whether = this happens or not, more heavy rain looks likely from SE Texas into Alabam= a. There have been unofficial reports of close to two feet of rain in SE Te= xas. The rain though farther North and East remains welcome. Into Florida a= nd the Carolina's, a cold front will spark additional welcome moderate to h= eavy rains. The above developments may help to put a lid on daytime temper= atures in the deep South for a few more days. This is not the case! for the= Plains however. The ridge that has been in the SW for weeks now will flex = NE. Temperatures in the 90's could get as far North as Nebraska and Iowa. A= mild NW flow aloft will keep things slightly below normal from the Lakes t= o the Mid-Atlantic though a strong June sun is starting to work on the atmo= sphere. The only fresh cooling in the short term will be in the PNW as the = next upper low moves in. This cooling should spread into the Northern Plain= s early next week. Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Sync= rasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image t= o enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 78 +1 ERCOT(SP) 88 NC FRCC(SE) 88 NC MAAC= (NE) 79 +1 MAIN(CTR) 80 +1 MAPP(HP) 79 NC NPCC(NE) 74 +2 SERC(S= E) 85 NC SPP(SP) 86 NC WSCC(NW) 71 +2 WSCC(RK) 85 +1 WSCC(SW) = 86 +1 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 74 79 68 65 83 80 85 83 Max 80 84 76 73 87 85 88 88 Min = 68 74 62 59 79 76 81 79 Range 11 9 13 14 7 9 7 8 StD-P 3.3 2.3 5.0 4.4= 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sun,= Jun 10, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 79 +1 ERCOT(SP) 90 -1 FR= CC(SE) 89 +1 MAAC(NE) 82 +1 MAIN(CTR) 81 NC MAPP(HP) 81 +1 NPCC= (NE) 76 NC SERC(SE) 88 +1 SPP(SP) 89 -1 WSCC(NW) 66 +2 WSCC(RK)= 82 +2 WSCC(SW) 83 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 75 80 69 59 83 82 87 82 Max 80 82 78 67 = 85 88 91 84 Min 71 76 63 54 80 78 83 79 Range 10 6 15 13 5 10 8 5 S= tD-P 2.8 2.2 5.7 4.1 1.5 3.9 2.7 1.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Day 4: Summ= ary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vol= atility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 80 -2 = ERCOT(SP) 91 -1 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 77 -4 MAIN(CTR) 83 NC M= APP(HP) 81 +5 NPCC(NE) 75 NC SERC(SE) 88 -1 SPP(SP) 90 +1 WSCC(= NW) 64 -3 WSCC(RK) 77 +2 WSCC(SW) 82 NC Range Standard Deviati= on Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 77 77 67 57 79 82 87 80= Max 82 80 76 64 80 88 91 82 Min 72 73 62 52 76 79 84 79 Range 9= 7 13 12 5 9 7 3 StD-P 2.7 2.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 = 5 5 5 Day 5: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) = ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 90 -1 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 81 -2 M= AIN(CTR) 82 +4 MAPP(HP) 74 +2 NPCC(NE) 77 -1 SERC(SE) 88 -1 SPP= (SP) 87 +3 WSCC(NW) 67 -3 WSCC(RK) 70 -3 WSCC(SW) 82 NC Ran= ge Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 75 6= 8 67 60 66 80 84 77 Max 80 73 79 67 74 88 90 83 Min 66 61 60 40 49= 74 75 58 Range 14 12 19 28 25 14 15 25 StD-P 3.9 4.3 3.8 6.8 6.6 2.8 3= .3 6.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion: For the first time = in awhile, the various longer range models are coming to a consensus. There= is still a question in my mind as to whether I accept the solution. The mo= dels now agree to expand the ridge into the Eastern U.S. later next week an= d beyond. There are a number of compelling arguments to support this scenar= io. If one translates the upper level features down to the surface you get = a return to the early April heat in the Northeast. The one difference thoug= h is the addition of tropical air to the mix. Where it does not rain, AC de= mand will certainly soar, but it is my feeling that there will be Showers a= nd a cold front passage or two despite the upper level look. So, while yes = it will be warming(and thats been well documented here for over a week) I w= ant to see what the models look like Monday before committing to an expande= d warm spel! l here. Besides this is all contingent on the next Pacific upp= er low lifting far North into Canada, a situation I am not yet convinced on= . That low, by the way spells more tstorm mischief and cooling into the Nor= thern Plains and Great Lakes during this period. The deep South slowly drie= s out while the east expansion of the ridge allows the amplitude to modify = a bit in the West. Overall, it does look much more like a summer pattern na= tionally. It should though, climatological summer is less than 2 weeks away= . Day 6: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(= CTR) 82 +3 ERCOT(SP) 89 NC FRCC(SE) 90 NC MAAC(NE) 83 +3 MAIN(C= TR) 77 +2 MAPP(HP) 71 -1 NPCC(NE) 79 +3 SERC(SE) 87 NC SPP(SP) = 80 +1 WSCC(NW) 71 -3 WSCC(RK) 70 -4 WSCC(SW) 82 NC Range St= andard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 72 66 70 = 69 68 80 84 83 Max 76 70 81 72 74 87 87 86 Min 68 61 67 65 61 78 8= 2 81 Range 8 10 13 7 13 9 5 5 StD-P 2.6 4.4 4.1 2.7 4.8 2.6 1.7 1.7 Co= unt 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001. Sync= rasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image t= o enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 76 -3 ERCOT(SP) 87 -2 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC= (NE) 80 NC MAIN(CTR) 73 -4 MAPP(HP) 70 -5 NPCC(NE) 78 +2 SERC(S= E) 85 -1 SPP(SP) 80 -5 WSCC(NW) 74 -1 WSCC(RK) 73 -4 WSCC(SW) = 83 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 68 71 70 71 75 80 80 85 Max 73 78 78 75 82 86 85 88 Min = 61 64 66 69 69 78 74 83 Range 11 15 13 6 12 8 11 5 StD-P 4.8 5.7 3.2 2= .5 3.9 2.3 5.0 1.9 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Summary Forecast for Fr= i, Jun 15, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 76 +1 ERCOT(SP) 88 +5 = FRCC(SE) 90 +10 MAAC(NE) 78 +5 MAIN(CTR) 74 -1 MAPP(HP) 72 -4 N= PCC(NE) 75 +8 SERC(SE) 85 +7 SPP(SP) 84 -1 WSCC(NW) 74 +8 WSCC(= RK) 77 NC WSCC(SW) 83 -1 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 70 76 68 73 81 80 83 84 Max 76 79 76 = 77 84 86 89 88 Min 64 74 64 71 78 78 77 82 Range 12 5 12 6 5 8 12 6 = StD-P 5.4 1.7 3.1 2.2 1.4 2.4 4.3 2.0 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Su= mmary Forecast for Sat, Jun 16, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V= olatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 63 -1= 2 ERCOT(SP) 80 -4 FRCC(SE) 81 +1 MAAC(NE) 65 -10 MAIN(CTR) 68 -= 7 MAPP(HP) 74 +5 NPCC(NE) 62 -7 SERC(SE) 76 -2 SPP(SP) 80 -6 W= SCC(NW) 72 +3 WSCC(RK) 83 +9 WSCC(SW) 80 -1 Range Standard Dev= iation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 70 75 66 75 80 78 8= 4 83 Max 73 80 71 78 84 79 90 87 Min 67 70 62 72 73 77 81 80 Rang= e 6 10 9 7 11 2 9 7 StD-P 2.5 4.6 3.9 2.9 3.8 1.0 3.2 2.8 Count 4 4 4 = 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 17, 2001. Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge)= ECAR(CTR) 70 -3 ERCOT(SP) 82 -3 FRCC(SE) 79 -2 MAAC(NE) 66 = -7 MAIN(CTR) 72 NC MAPP(HP) 76 +8 NPCC(NE) 59 -9 SERC(SE) 76 -2= SPP(SP) 84 NC WSCC(NW) 73 +2 WSCC(RK) 83 +8 WSCC(SW) 80 +2 = Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 66 67 64 63 69 75 77 72 Max 72 81 68 73 85 77 83 80 Min 59 53 62 = 53 49 73 71 63 Range 13 29 6 20 36 4 12 17 StD-P 5.8 14.2 2.5 9.9 16.2 = 1.8 5.5 8.1 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is designed around an= d formatted for the Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader S= ummary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com = or www.truequote.com =09 =09=09 909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main www.syncrasy= .com 835 Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Houston, TX 77002 713= .228.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax 713.228.4407 Sales = If you prefer to not receive future e-mails regarding Syncrasy Product= s and News Updates, please REPLY to this message and indicate REMOVE in t= he subject field. =09
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