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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Oct 19, 2001 at 09:= 51AM ET Commentary last updated: Friday, Oct 19, 2001 at 09:56AM ET Met= eorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulations = Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/A= MS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS= or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temper= ature' Today: Friday, October 19, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (C= lick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 61 +3 ERCOT(SP) 80 +3 FRCC(= SE) 84 +1 MAAC(NE) 61 -1 MAIN(CTR) 59 +2 MAPP(HP) 57 NC NPCC(NE) 58 -1 SERC= (SE) 72 NC SPP(SP) 72 +2 WSCC(NW) 61 -1 WSCC(RK) 63 NC WSCC(SW) 77 +1 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 55 56 56 57 58 69 74 75 Max 62 63 60 63 65 75 79 80 Min 49 48 50 53 49 63 6= 4 71 Range 13 15 10 10 16 12 15 9 StD-P 3.4 4.2 3.1 3.0 4.8 3.6 4.4 2.4 Cou= nt 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Day 1-5 Discussion: Zonal flow keeps the sh= ort term quiet. Major jet stream amplification expected in the medium range= with arctic outbreak possible. A weak cold front is crossing the Midwest = today, but with very little change in sensible weather. The only significan= t storminess over the next several days would be a heavy rain threat over t= he Southern half of Florida and a moderate rain threat in the Pacific NW. W= hen I last wrote on Monday, I discussed the potential for a trough to form = in the Western U.S. It clearly has not happened though I mentioned that a z= onal flow would also accomplish the forecasted warm up. This milder air sho= uld stay in place into the middle of next week. The Western Atlantic ridge = has also strengthened in recent days which should force Gulf and East coast= temperatures to go above normal by ea! rly next week after a couple of mor= e coolish days. There are no named storms in the tropics at this time. A co= uple of flare-ups in the Caribbean bear watching, but likely would not deve= lop until Monday at the earliest, if then. Tomorrow: Saturday, October 20,= 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 64 +2 ERCOT(SP) 82 NC FRCC(SE) 84 +1 MAAC(NE) 66 +2 MAIN(CTR) 64= -1 MAPP(HP) 59 -3 NPCC(NE) 61 +2 SERC(SE) 77 +1 SPP(SP) 77 NC WSCC(NW) 60 = +1 WSCC(RK) 63 -1 WSCC(SW) 76 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAG= E] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 58 57 58 54 60 72 77 74 Max 66 66 65 = 60 67 78 82 78 Min 51 48 52 50 50 65 69 70 Range 15 18 13 10 17 13 13 8 StD= -P 3.5 4.5 3.7 3.5 4.9 4.2 4.0 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Day 3: S= unday, October 21, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matr= ix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to en= large) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 67 NC ERCOT(SP) 84 +1 FRCC(SE) 83 -1 MAAC(NE) = 69 +3 MAIN(CTR) 62 -2 MAPP(HP) 56 -2 NPCC(NE) 62 +3 SERC(SE) 79 +3 SPP(SP) = 74 -2 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) 59 +1 WSCC(SW) 73 +1 Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 57 54 59 52 58 73 7= 7 71 Max 62 62 66 57 65 80 82 74 Min 52 45 55 47 48 68 69 66 Range 10 17 11= 10 17 12 13 8 StD-P 3.3 4.8 3.2 2.5 4.9 4.1 4.6 2.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 = Day 4: Monday, October 22, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volat= ility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on i= mage to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 65 -1 ERCOT(SP) 84 +1 FRCC(SE) 84 -1= MAAC(NE) 70 +1 MAIN(CTR) 62 -1 MAPP(HP) 54 -1 NPCC(NE) 61 NC SERC(SE) 79 += 1 SPP(SP) 75 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 -1 WSCC(RK) 57 NC WSCC(SW) 72 +1 Range Stan= dard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 54 52 61 = 49 51 74 77 68 Max 60 57 64 54 59 80 82 72 Min 51 48 56 45 46 69 73 66 Rang= e 9 9 8 9 13 11 9 6 StD-P 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.9 3.4 3.1 1.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6= 6 6 Day 5: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 68 -1 ERCOT(SP) 84 +1 FRCC(SE)= 86 +1 MAAC(NE) 68 -1 MAIN(CTR) 63 -2 MAPP(HP) 56 -3 NPCC(NE) 59 -1 SERC(SE= ) 79 +1 SPP(SP) 73 -1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 +2 WSCC(SW) 72 +1 Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 58 = 52 58 45 50 74 77 68 Max 62 57 62 54 56 80 81 72 Min 55 46 54 41 43 71 70 6= 5 Range 7 11 8 13 13 9 11 7 StD-P 2.6 3.9 2.6 2.9 4.1 3.3 4.6 2.0 Count 6 6= 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion: Weather patterns in the 6-10 day rang= e should become much more interesting and bullish. All of the models foreca= st a strong dip of the polar jet to occur into the Plains late next week. T= here are some discrepancies in the intensity and how fast it moves East. Ho= wever, given some very strong winds in the Pacific and some very cold air n= ow over the Arctic, I expect this to be significant. Persistence also shoul= d pay off in this forecast. These troughs have not had any problem digging = into the Eastern U.S. since Labor Day while troughs into the West have been= non-existence. This could be giving us clues on how the winter will go. Th= e good news is that will aid in verifying my winter outlook, the bad news i= s it could result in a long season in the East. Specifics can wait until ne= xt week as the event gets closer. A couple! of highlights though would like= ly be accumulating snows in the Northern U.S. and double digit below normal= temperatures invading the Plains and spreading East. As is usually the cas= e, a strong trough in the East results in significant ridging(with warmer, = drier air) in the Western U.S. Day 6: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 66 = +1 ERCOT(SP) 83 +4 FRCC(SE) 86 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 NC MAIN(CTR) 62 +3 MAPP(HP) 5= 3 +1 NPCC(NE) 62 -1 SERC(SE) 79 +2 SPP(SP) 71 +5 WSCC(NW) 52 -2 WSCC(RK) 48= -1 WSCC(SW) 70 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 56 48 61 44 44 75 75 67 Max 60 57 64 52 59 80 81 70= Min 52 41 54 39 31 72 71 62 Range 8 16 10 13 28 8 10 8 StD-P 3.0 5.9 2.7 4= .1 9.9 2.2 3.9 3.4 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Thursday, October 25, 200= 1 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECA= R(CTR) 63 +6 ERCOT(SP) 79 +2 FRCC(SE) 85 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 +6 MAIN(CTR) 56 +1 = MAPP(HP) 46 -7 NPCC(NE) 62 +5 SERC(SE) 76 +4 SPP(SP) 63 -2 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 W= SCC(RK) 47 -6 WSCC(SW) 70 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 39 62 46 36 73 68 63 Max 54 48 64 54 4= 8 78 75 71 Min 46 35 60 39 27 69 65 52 Range 8 13 4 15 21 9 10 19 StD-P 2.4= 4.7 1.6 3.7 7.5 1.9 3.1 6.0 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Friday, October= 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][= IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAG= E] ECAR(CTR) 47 +9 ERCOT(SP) 58 -3 FRCC(SE) 76 +6 MAAC(NE) 65 +21 MAIN(CT= R) 37 NC MAPP(HP) 36 NC NPCC(NE) 59 +14 SERC(SE) 66 +11 SPP(SP) 45 -5 WSCC(= NW) 53 NC WSCC(RK) 44 -5 WSCC(SW) 66 -3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 45 44 58 51 42 70 67 67 Max 50= 52 60 59 56 73 79 72 Min 39 41 52 43 31 68 55 62 Range 11 11 8 16 25 5 24 = 10 StD-P 4.3 3.2 2.2 5.3 7.1 1.9 10.3 2.6 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Sa= turday, October 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Mat= rix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to e= nlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 -2 ERCOT(SP) 55 -13 FRCC(SE) 65 +1 MAAC(NE= ) 45 +3 MAIN(CTR) 35 -6 MAPP(HP) 35 -14 NPCC(NE) 51 +9 SERC(SE) 51 NC SPP(S= P) 55 -9 WSCC(NW) 55 +9 WSCC(RK) 48 -6 WSCC(SW) 68 +2 Range Standard De= viation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 45 47 50 43 5= 8 60 65 Max 43 52 50 56 54 69 66 73 Min 34 31 41 32 23 54 55 50 Range 9 21 = 9 24 31 15 11 23 StD-P 3.9 6.7 2.9 8.8 10.1 5.6 5.1 7.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4= 4 Day 10: Sunday, October 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V= olatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click = on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -12 ERCOT(SP) 63 -9 FRCC(SE) = 64 -2 MAAC(NE) 36 -3 MAIN(CTR) 29 -24 MAPP(HP) 40 -13 NPCC(NE) 38 -3 SERC(S= E) 50 -3 SPP(SP) 57 -13 WSCC(NW) 50 +13 WSCC(RK) 52 +8 WSCC(SW) 69 +10 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean= 32 49 37 48 46 52 61 63 Max 34 52 37 50 51 53 63 69 Min 32 43 37 45 36 49 = 57 52 Range 2 9 0 5 15 4 6 17 StD-P 1.2 4.1 0.1 2.6 6.7 1.8 2.6 7.5 Count 3= 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the = [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can als= o be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequ= ote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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