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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Oct 26, 2001 at 08:= 25AM ET Commentary last updated: Friday, Oct 26, 2001 at 09:31AM ET Met= eorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulations = Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/A= MS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS= or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temper= ature' Today: Friday, October 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (C= lick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 NC FRCC(= SE) 74 -3 MAAC(NE) 55 +3 MAIN(CTR) 45 -3 MAPP(HP) 40 -2 NPCC(NE) 51 +3 SERC= (SE) 67 +2 SPP(SP) 64 -2 WSCC(NW) 60 -2 WSCC(RK) 59 NC WSCC(SW) 76 -1 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 40 46 48 56 54 64 68 73 Max 45 55 52 62 61 70 76 76 Min 35 37 44 52 43 58 5= 9 68 Range 10 18 8 10 18 12 17 8 StD-P 2.1 4.3 2.2 2.4 5.6 3.7 4.8 2.6 Coun= t 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Day 1-5 Discussion: Cold air in the East wil= l linger through the weekend but will get rapidly scoured out next week. Ne= xt trough set to enter the Western U.S. There is currently a long and stro= ng fetch of NW winds driving cold air through the Plains and then South and= East. Some Lake effect snows are occurring with this as well though much o= f the Great Lakes moisture is a cold rain. Sprawling high pressure covers a= lmost the rest of the country and the trend in temperature is about to beco= me one of moderation. The surface high in the Plains will shift to the East= coast by early next week and the NW winds now will shift to the SW allowin= g the warm up to commence. It will start in the Plains this weekend and go = East of the Mississippi by Monday. My five day temperature departures are s= till largely below normal, but they s! hould be used with caution in a see-= saw pattern such as this. After all some areas(especially in the Plains) ma= y start out 15-20 below normal today and go 10-15 above normal by Day 5(Tue= sday). By the end of the period, the Eastern trough will be out to sea, a n= ew trough will invade the West and Pacific style air will rule coast to coa= st. That air can be damp along the West coast, but as it sinks over the mou= ntains it quickly warms up and dries out. This pattern is allowing the wet = season to get started in the PNW. It appears each successive Pacific storm = is getting a little stronger and forming further South. If the trend contin= ues, we could start seeing moisture getting into Northern California next w= eek. Tomorrow: Saturday, October 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (C= lick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 -1 ERCOT(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(= SE) 68 -2 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 45 -2 MAPP(HP) 50 -2 NPCC(NE) 48 NC SERC= (SE) 57 -3 SPP(SP) 63 -2 WSCC(NW) 55 -2 WSCC(RK) 69 +1 WSCC(SW) 73 +1 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 40 56 45 50 62 56 67 69 Max 45 64 49 56 70 62 74 73 Min 35 49 41 46 54 49 5= 8 65 Range 10 15 8 10 16 13 16 8 StD-P 3.0 4.3 2.1 2.9 5.4 3.1 4.2 2.7 Coun= t 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Day 3: Sunday, October 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Ch= oice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 50 NC ERCO= T(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 54 -1 MAPP(HP) 59 NC NP= CC(NE) 47 NC SERC(SE) 58 -1 SPP(SP) 69 -1 WSCC(NW) 54 +1 WSCC(RK) 62 NC WSC= C(SW) 70 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW = RK SE SP SW Mean 48 57 41 49 60 55 69 66 Max 56 65 48 55 68 61 74 71 Min 43= 50 37 45 52 48 62 63 Range 13 15 11 10 16 13 12 8 StD-P 3.5 4.3 3.8 2.8 4.= 4 3.5 3.8 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Day 4: Monday, October 29, 2001 Syn= crasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) = 56 NC ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 -1 MAAC(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 58 +1 MAPP(HP= ) 57 +2 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) 65 NC SPP(SP) 71 +1 WSCC(NW) 55 NC WSCC(RK)= 61 +3 WSCC(SW) 69 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT= HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 55 47 50 57 58 67 63 Max 57 59 53 55 64 67 75= 69 Min 45 51 43 47 51 52 60 61 Range 12 8 10 8 13 15 15 8 StD-P 3.5 2.9 3.= 0 1.8 4.0 4.0 4.5 2.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Tuesday, October 30, 2= 001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] E= CAR(CTR) 58 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 59 NC MAIN(CTR) 58 += 1 MAPP(HP) 53 +1 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 71 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC= WSCC(RK) 57 +2 WSCC(SW) 66 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]= Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 57 49 50 52 62 67 60 Max 56 59 54 54= 59 70 75 66 Min 47 53 44 47 47 56 59 57 Range 9 6 10 7 12 14 16 9 StD-P 3.= 1 2.1 2.8 2.0 3.6 4.2 5.7 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion:= I continue to see good agreement with the models in the 6-10 day period. = The country should remain bathed in Pacific air well into the first week of= November and I believe even beyond. Troughs continue to move into the West= and then in a progressive pattern stay fairly weak in their move East. Wit= hout any blocking in Canada, it is hard for me to see much likelihood for a= ny arctic air to get entrained. My confidence remains high in a largely abo= ve normal temperature forecast. It is a little less optimistic in terms of = precipitation. I question how much Gulf of Mexico moisture can be worked ba= ck to the North, but some models suggest the Plains could get wet next week= . I have not discussed the tropics much this week because there has not bee= n a storm to mention. There still isn't, but the overall pattern we are goi= ng into ne! xt week can in a climatological sense sometimes crank something= up in the Caribbean and push it North towards Florida. My guess is there w= ill not be a named storm as such, but some potential for heavy rain. Day 6= : Wednesday, October 31, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit= y Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image= to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 60 +2 ERCOT(SP) 77 +2 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAA= C(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 58 +1 MAPP(HP) 56 +1 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 71 NC SP= P(SP) 72 +4 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 66 -1 Range Standard= Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 55 47 48 4= 6 65 69 61 Max 58 60 52 54 54 72 76 66 Min 50 52 42 45 39 62 65 57 Range 8 = 8 10 9 15 10 11 9 StD-P 2.9 2.8 4.0 2.5 6.2 3.1 3.4 3.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5= 5 Day 7: Thursday, November 1, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 60 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE)= 82 +1 MAAC(NE) 61 NC MAIN(CTR) 59 NC MAPP(HP) 55 NC NPCC(NE) 51 -3 SERC(SE= ) 73 +1 SPP(SP) 66 -1 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) 53 -1 WSCC(SW) 68 NC Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 56 = 53 51 49 42 69 69 62 Max 59 58 54 55 52 74 73 68 Min 53 48 48 45 35 66 64 5= 9 Range 6 10 6 10 17 8 9 9 StD-P 2.6 3.8 2.5 2.5 7.0 2.2 4.2 3.2 Count 5 5 = 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Friday, November 2, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta = Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 55 -2 ERCOT(SP) 67 -3 F= RCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 60 +1 MAIN(CTR) 53 -5 MAPP(HP) 49 NC NPCC(NE) 55 +1 = SERC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 53 -9 WSCC(NW) 51 +5 WSCC(RK) 46 +6 WSCC(SW) 64 +2 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW M= ean 55 51 55 50 46 69 69 66 Max 60 57 57 55 56 73 73 69 Min 52 49 51 47 39 = 66 64 62 Range 8 8 6 8 17 7 9 7 StD-P 2.6 2.6 1.7 2.2 3.9 2.2 4.0 2.8 Count= 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Saturday, November 3, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 -4 ERCOT(SP) = 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -3 MAIN(CTR) 50 NC MAPP(HP) 51 +3 NPCC(NE)= 55 -1 SERC(SE) 67 +1 SPP(SP) 54 -1 WSCC(NW) 50 +5 WSCC(RK) 48 +1 WSCC(SW) = 65 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 52 50 53 49 46 67 64 66 Max 59 52 57 52 47 69 69 70 Min 47 46 44= 45 43 63 62 63 Range 12 6 13 7 4 6 7 7 StD-P 3.6 2.5 4.4 2.0 1.2 2.1 2.6 2= .0 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Sunday, November 4, 2001 Syncrasy's C= hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 47 NC ERC= OT(SP) 63 +4 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 49 -5 MAIN(CTR) 52 +4 MAPP(HP) 53 +6 N= PCC(NE) 48 -5 SERC(SE) 60 NC SPP(SP) 59 +8 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 47 +1 WS= CC(SW) 64 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW= RK SE SP SW Mean 51 47 47 41 41 64 61 56 Max 53 53 50 44 48 65 63 64 Min 4= 9 39 44 37 30 62 59 45 Range 4 14 6 7 18 3 4 19 StD-P 1.2 5.7 1.8 3.1 6.6 1= .3 1.3 8.5 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is designed around and f= ormatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trad= er Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.c= om or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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