Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Mon, Dec 24, 2001

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st updated: Monday, Dec 24, 2001 at 07:37AM EST [IMAGE]Congratulations A=
ndy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AM=
S Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS =
or Aquila [IMAGE]New! << Printable [IMAGE]PDFTrader Summary (You must hav=
e Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definitio=
n of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Monday, December 24, 20=
01 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on imag=
e to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 31 +1 ERCOT(SP) 53 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +2 MAAC(NE) 4=
5 +2 MAIN(CTR) 26 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 +3 NPCC(NE) 42 +1 SERC(SE) 51 +2 SPP(SP) 3=
9 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 31 +2 WSCC(SW) 55 +1 Range Standard Deviat=
ion Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 24 40 35 23 53 45 48 Max 33 33 =
43 39 31 59 52 54 Min 20 19 36 30 13 48 37 44 Range 13 14 7 9 18 11 15 10 S=
tD-P 3.3 3.3 1.8 2.2 4.4 3.4 4.1 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click He=
re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Tomorro=
w: Tuesday, December 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility=
Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 27 +1 ERCOT(SP) 54 +=
5 FRCC(SE) 66 +3 MAAC(NE) 35 NC MAIN(CTR) 21 +2 MAPP(HP) 15 +1 NPCC(NE) 36 =
NC SERC(SE) 44 +1 SPP(SP) 35 +2 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 31 +2 WSCC(SW) 54 +=
1 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 22 3=
4 35 24 47 44 49 Max 24 32 41 39 32 55 50 55 Min 17 17 27 31 13 41 35 44 Ra=
nge 7 15 14 8 19 14 15 11 StD-P 2.1 3.7 4.0 2.4 5.1 3.3 3.9 3.3 Count 14 14=
14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the =
Volatility Matrix Day 3: Wednesday, December 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choic=
e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECA=
R(CTR) 23 NC ERCOT(SP) 54 +2 FRCC(SE) 62 -1 MAAC(NE) 33 -1 MAIN(CTR) 21 +2 =
MAPP(HP) 21 +4 NPCC(NE) 33 -1 SERC(SE) 41 NC SPP(SP) 39 +4 WSCC(NW) 40 +2 W=
SCC(RK) 35 +3 WSCC(SW) 56 +3 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE =
NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 27 29 36 27 42 42 50 Max 20 32 34 40 36 50 50 57 Min=
16 23 23 32 18 36 30 46 Range 4 9 11 8 18 14 20 11 StD-P 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.3 4=
.9 3.2 5.5 3.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather=
Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Thursday, December 27,=
2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on i=
mage to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 25 +2 ERCOT(SP) 60 +3 FRCC(SE) 59 NC MAAC(NE=
) 30 -1 MAIN(CTR) 26 +3 MAPP(HP) 20 -1 NPCC(NE) 30 -2 SERC(SE) 43 +3 SPP(SP=
) 43 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 30 NC WSCC(SW) 56 +2 Range Standard Dev=
iation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 26 27 36 27 41 48 51 Max 23 =
31 31 40 36 46 56 56 Min 19 23 22 32 19 37 43 48 Range 4 8 9 8 17 9 13 8 St=
D-P 1.1 2.3 2.5 1.9 5.4 3.0 3.4 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Her=
e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: =
Friday, December 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Mat=
rix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 26 +1 ERCOT(SP) 57 +3 FR=
CC(SE) 65 +3 MAAC(NE) 34 +3 MAIN(CTR) 23 NC MAPP(HP) 18 -3 NPCC(NE) 29 -1 S=
ERC(SE) 46 +3 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 30 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 +1 =
Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 23 27 37=
26 45 46 52 Max 23 28 30 40 33 49 55 56 Min 18 18 22 33 21 42 38 48 Range =
5 10 8 7 12 7 17 8 StD-P 1.1 2.8 2.1 1.5 3.7 1.6 5.2 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 =
10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatil=
ity Matrix Day 6: Saturday, December 29, 2001 Click Here for Syncrasy's =
6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matr=
ix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 26 NC ERCOT(SP) 58 +1 FRC=
C(SE) 66 +2 MAAC(NE) 32 +1 MAIN(CTR) 22 -1 MAPP(HP) 12 -10 NPCC(NE) 28 +1 S=
ERC(SE) 46 NC SPP(SP) 39 -5 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(RK) 28 -9 WSCC(SW) 56 -1 =
Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 18 19 26 38=
26 44 47 52 Max 21 24 29 40 31 49 54 56 Min 14 10 21 31 19 40 43 46 Range =
7 14 8 9 12 9 11 10 StD-P 2.3 5.3 2.5 2.0 4.6 3.2 4.0 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9=
9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat=
rix Day 7: Sunday, December 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. =
Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 26 NC ERCO=
T(SP) 53 -6 FRCC(SE) 66 NC MAAC(NE) 34 +3 MAIN(CTR) 23 -5 MAPP(HP) 13 -14 N=
PCC(NE) 29 +3 SERC(SE) 45 NC SPP(SP) 34 -13 WSCC(NW) 37 -6 WSCC(RK) 25 -14 =
WSCC(SW) 55 -3 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW=
Mean 17 15 25 35 24 43 45 51 Max 20 24 30 39 30 50 53 56 Min 12 4 20 29 14=
38 37 45 Range 8 20 10 10 16 12 16 11 StD-P 2.4 6.5 2.4 3.5 6.0 4.3 4.9 3.=
5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within=
the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Monday, December 31, 2001 Syncrasy's Choi=
ce: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) EC=
AR(CTR) 20 +1 ERCOT(SP) 35 -10 FRCC(SE) 55 +2 MAAC(NE) 27 +8 MAIN(CTR) 17 -=
6 MAPP(HP) 10 -15 NPCC(NE) 26 +14 SERC(SE) 33 -4 SPP(SP) 19 -18 WSCC(NW) 27=
-17 WSCC(RK) 5 -25 WSCC(SW) 48 -5 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT =
HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 18 17 27 35 21 42 41 52 Max 24 26 33 42 29 49 49 =
56 Min 13 7 21 27 6 36 31 48 Range 11 19 12 15 23 13 18 8 StD-P 2.5 6.0 2.4=
4.6 8.3 4.9 6.4 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather F=
orecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Tuesday, January 1, 20=
02 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on imag=
e to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 20 -1 ERCOT(SP) 28 -20 FRCC(SE) 60 +2 MAAC(NE) =
26 +4 MAIN(CTR) 16 -4 MAPP(HP) 8 -14 NPCC(NE) 24 +9 SERC(SE) 32 -11 SPP(SP)=
15 -23 WSCC(NW) 36 -7 WSCC(RK) 13 -19 WSCC(SW) 48 -5 Range Standard De=
viation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 19 26 38 24 41 37 51 Max 24=
35 32 42 34 48 47 56 Min 15 8 21 36 14 34 25 47 Range 9 27 11 6 20 14 22 9=
StD-P 3.5 7.9 2.7 1.8 6.1 4.6 8.5 2.9 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to =
See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Wedne=
sday, January 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix=
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 19 +3 ERCOT(SP) 30 -20 FRCC=
(SE) 54 -6 MAAC(NE) 26 +4 MAIN(CTR) 15 NC MAPP(HP) 12 -11 NPCC(NE) 22 +7 SE=
RC(SE) 30 -7 SPP(SP) 16 -28 WSCC(NW) 36 -4 WSCC(RK) 21 -13 WSCC(SW) 48 -5 =
Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 18 22 3=
5 21 35 31 44 Max 21 31 24 36 25 37 36 48 Min 15 12 21 32 19 33 27 39 Range=
6 19 3 4 6 4 9 9 StD-P 2.0 5.2 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 4.0 4.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6=
6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matri=
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