Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Mon, Dec 31, 2001

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st updated: Monday, Dec 31, 2001 at 07:41AM EST [IMAGE]Congratulations A=
ndy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AM=
S Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS =
or Aquila [IMAGE]New! << Printable [IMAGE]PDFTrader Summary (You must hav=
e Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definitio=
n of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Monday, December 31, 20=
01 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on imag=
e to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 23 -1 ERCOT(SP) 43 -3 FRCC(SE) 65 -2 MAAC(NE) 3=
2 NC MAIN(CTR) 19 NC MAPP(HP) 12 +2 NPCC(NE) 28 +1 SERC(SE) 40 NC SPP(SP) 3=
3 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 27 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Range Standard Deviat=
ion Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 16 15 25 38 25 44 38 52 Max 24 20 =
31 42 30 46 42 57 Min 12 9 21 36 20 41 32 49 Range 12 11 10 6 10 5 10 8 StD=
-P 2.3 3.5 2.2 1.2 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here=
to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Tomorrow:=
Tuesday, January 1, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Ma=
trix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 22 -1 ERCOT(SP) 41 NC F=
RCC(SE) 66 -1 MAAC(NE) 32 +1 MAIN(CTR) 19 NC MAPP(HP) 11 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 NC =
SERC(SE) 41 NC SPP(SP) 29 +1 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 24 -4 WSCC(SW) 55 NC =
Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 17 15 25 3=
9 23 43 38 51 Max 25 23 30 43 30 47 41 57 Min 11 10 18 36 18 39 34 47 Range=
14 13 12 7 12 8 7 10 StD-P 2.1 2.9 2.6 2.0 3.3 2.1 1.9 2.7 Count 14 14 14 =
14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vola=
tility Matrix Day 3: Wednesday, January 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: D=
elta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR=
) 24 -3 ERCOT(SP) 45 +2 FRCC(SE) 70 +4 MAAC(NE) 33 -2 MAIN(CTR) 19 -3 MAPP(=
HP) 16 -4 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 35 -2 SPP(SP) 27 -4 WSCC(NW) 45 NC WSCC(R=
K) 34 -2 WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK=
SE SP SW Mean 17 19 26 43 26 42 37 51 Max 19 24 31 45 33 46 41 55 Min 13 1=
4 21 41 23 39 31 47 Range 6 10 10 4 10 7 10 8 StD-P 2.0 3.4 2.2 1.0 2.6 1.6=
2.9 2.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forec=
ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Thursday, January 3, 2002 =
Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to=
enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 26 -2 ERCOT(SP) 50 -1 FRCC(SE) 57 -5 MAAC(NE) 33 -2=
MAIN(CTR) 26 -1 MAPP(HP) 24 +2 NPCC(NE) 30 -2 SERC(SE) 37 -4 SPP(SP) 40 -3=
WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 39 NC WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range Standard Deviation =
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 28 27 40 32 39 40 52 Max 24 34 30 4=
5 39 43 47 56 Min 14 24 21 37 29 34 34 48 Range 10 10 9 8 10 9 13 8 StD-P 2=
.7 2.1 2.7 2.4 1.7 2.7 3.1 2.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to =
See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Frida=
y, January 4, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix =
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 30 +1 ERCOT(SP) 55 -4 FRCC(SE)=
59 -3 MAAC(NE) 30 -3 MAIN(CTR) 29 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 +5 NPCC(NE) 19 -2 SERC(SE=
) 44 -3 SPP(SP) 41 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 WSCC(RK) 33 -2 WSCC(SW) 56 +1 Rang=
e Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 32 20 40 28 40=
48 51 Max 29 35 30 43 40 47 51 56 Min 22 29 10 36 19 34 45 46 Range 7 6 20=
7 21 13 6 10 StD-P 1.7 1.7 6.0 2.1 5.9 3.1 1.7 3.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10=
10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility M=
atrix Day 6: Saturday, January 5, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 s=
ummary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix =
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 33 +2 ERCOT(SP) 57 -3 FRCC(SE) =
68 +2 MAAC(NE) 38 +4 MAIN(CTR) 32 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 +8 SERC(SE)=
47 -2 SPP(SP) 42 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 33 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range=
Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 32 27 40 26 47 =
49 51 Max 33 34 34 43 34 51 53 55 Min 28 29 23 37 19 45 45 45 Range 5 5 11 =
6 15 6 8 10 StD-P 1.7 1.5 2.7 1.3 4.8 1.5 3.0 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Cli=
ck Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix D=
ay 7: Sunday, January 6, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit=
y Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 34 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 =
-1 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 40 +2 MAIN(CTR) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 28 +2 NPCC(NE) 35=
+6 SERC(SE) 48 -3 SPP(SP) 44 +3 WSCC(NW) 43 +3 WSCC(RK) 37 +4 WSCC(SW) 58 =
+2 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 34 =
33 41 30 50 46 53 Max 31 36 36 43 37 53 53 58 Min 27 30 30 40 26 47 38 49 R=
ange 4 6 6 3 11 6 15 9 StD-P 1.0 1.7 1.5 0.7 3.0 1.8 4.8 2.3 Count 9 9 9 9 =
9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility =
Matrix Day 8: Monday, January 7, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. =
Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 26 +2 ERC=
OT(SP) 50 +10 FRCC(SE) 56 -5 MAAC(NE) 38 +8 MAIN(CTR) 33 +10 MAPP(HP) 36 +1=
3 NPCC(NE) 40 +13 SERC(SE) 43 +4 SPP(SP) 45 +16 WSCC(NW) 46 +4 WSCC(RK) 35 =
+9 WSCC(SW) 54 +7 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP=
SW Mean 31 37 33 44 34 48 50 56 Max 34 41 39 46 41 54 57 60 Min 27 32 27 4=
2 29 44 45 52 Range 7 9 12 4 12 10 12 8 StD-P 1.2 2.6 3.3 1.3 2.6 3.6 2.9 2=
.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi=
n the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Tuesday, January 8, 2002 Syncrasy's Ch=
oice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) =
ECAR(CTR) 27 +6 ERCOT(SP) 52 +8 FRCC(SE) 61 +8 MAAC(NE) 31 +8 MAIN(CTR) 31 =
+3 MAPP(HP) 37 +4 NPCC(NE) 26 +8 SERC(SE) 46 +10 SPP(SP) 48 +8 WSCC(NW) 44 =
+2 WSCC(RK) 35 +4 WSCC(SW) 56 +5 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP=
NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 39 30 44 35 49 51 57 Max 33 43 35 45 39 54 56 59=
Min 29 36 24 42 32 45 48 54 Range 4 7 11 3 7 9 8 5 StD-P 0.9 1.9 3.1 0.7 2=
.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Wednesday, January 9, 2002 =
Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to=
enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 28 +2 ERCOT(SP) 56 +8 FRCC(SE) 58 +4 MAAC(NE) 26 NC=
MAIN(CTR) 36 +3 MAPP(HP) 38 +4 NPCC(NE) 17 -2 SERC(SE) 46 +6 SPP(SP) 49 +4=
WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 30 NC WSCC(SW) 54 NC Range Standard Deviation =
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 37 24 40 27 44 45 48 Max 34 40 31 4=
2 31 48 54 54 Min 26 33 19 37 23 38 36 40 Range 8 7 12 5 8 10 18 14 StD-P 3=
.1 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.9 8.2 6.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each=
Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is d=
esigned around and formatted for the Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and Dat=
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