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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Monday, Jan 14, 2002 at 07:= 43AM EST Commentary last updated: Monday, Jan 14, 2002 at 09:17AM EST M= eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulation= s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA= /AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A= MS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe= Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of '= Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Monday, January 14, 2002 S= yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 43 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 +2 MAPP(= HP) 31 +3 NPCC(NE) 34 +2 SERC(SE) 57 -2 SPP(SP) 52 +3 WSCC(NW) 38 +2 WSCC(R= K) 33 +5 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg = CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 32 35 34 29 57 55 54 Max 41 36 39 39 38 61 = 63 58 Min 34 28 27 29 21 54 47 50 Range 7 8 12 10 17 7 16 8 StD-P 1.6 3.1 2= .8 3.2 5.2 1.9 4.7 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Eac= h Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion:= This week will see some significant differences from last week. Arctic a= ir finally gets into the battle, but can it win the war? Signs continue t= o indicate this is a strange and frustrating winter for many forecasters. O= ne of the strongest N'oreasters in years forms in Mid-January this past wee= kend. It turns out to be a harmless event for most as it tracks just too fa= r off the coast. Plus, it was too warm for snow other than upstate Maine an= d a bit of Eastern Mass. Then, a seemingly innocent looking system over the= Great Lakes drops some locally heavy snows over areas who spent much of la= st week over 20 degrees above normal. So much for the look back now we look= ahead. There are several challenges ahead, though the main one for energy = is in the medium range. I'll outline that one in the 6-10 day paragraph ! b= elow. In the short term, we have lost the unusual warmth in the North, thou= gh to call this air cold is a disservice to Northern climes. There are two = distinct storm tracks this morning. The Southern branch is all rain along t= he Gulf Coast and Southeast. The North is a mix with rain in the Southern l= akes and some moderate snow in the North. We will see a couple of weak to m= oderate weather systems come into the West and move across the country. The= y don't appear to be travel interrupters, but may at least introduce some w= inter to areas who have not seen much of late. When I superimpose a tempera= ture forecast atop all of this, it looks cooler than last week for sure, bu= t nothing major when compared to normal. Tomorrow: Tuesday, January 15, = 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 66 +5 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 = +2 MAPP(HP) 23 +2 NPCC(NE) 37 +2 SERC(SE) 57 NC SPP(SP) 51 +6 WSCC(NW) 33 N= C WSCC(RK) 29 +3 WSCC(SW) 55 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 38 32 28 55 58 51 Max 37 36 41 3= 7 34 61 64 57 Min 27 21 33 25 22 50 53 47 Range 10 15 8 12 12 11 11 10 StD-= P 2.3 3.0 1.5 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here = to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: We= dnesday, January 16, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Ma= trix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to = enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 +4 ERCOT(SP) 68 +6 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE= ) 40 +1 MAIN(CTR) 30 +4 MAPP(HP) 18 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +4 SPP(SP= ) 45 +5 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 54 NC Range Standard Dev= iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 24 32 31 22 53= 61 50 Max 30 26 40 33 33 60 64 55 Min 25 20 28 26 15 49 57 45 Range 5 6 12= 7 18 11 7 10 StD-P 1.3 1.7 3.3 2.0 4.5 3.8 2.0 3.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12= 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility = Matrix Day 4: Thursday, January 17, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Tem= p. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (= Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC= (SE) 74 +3 MAAC(NE) 42 +6 MAIN(CTR) 27 +1 MAPP(HP) 19 -2 NPCC(NE) 30 +4 SER= C(SE) 56 +4 SPP(SP) 40 NC WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 26 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 +1 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean= 26 23 32 32 22 56 57 49 Max 28 26 36 36 28 59 64 55 Min 23 20 29 28 17 54 = 53 45 Range 5 6 7 8 11 5 11 10 StD-P 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 3.2 1.9 3.3 2.9 Count = 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi= n the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Friday, January 18, 2002 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 31 -2 ERCOT= (SP) 65 -3 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 26 -5 MAPP(HP) 16 -6 NPC= C(NE) 30 +1 SERC(SE) 55 -1 SPP(SP) 39 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 26 -4 WSCC= (SW) 53 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW R= K SE SP SW Mean 23 23 30 33 22 56 55 48 Max 26 26 34 36 29 60 60 54 Min 20 = 18 25 27 14 52 49 44 Range 6 8 9 9 15 8 11 10 StD-P 1.1 2.6 2.9 2.6 4.8 2.6= 2.5 3.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Fore= cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6-10 da= y period MAY become a bit more challenging. While the Lower 48 has basked i= n warmer than normal air the past 10 days, we have seen a definite cooldown= in Canada. There is finally a real arctic duck on the pond, the question i= s does it swim South. If one looks at the MRF or Canadian models the answer= is clearly no. But, my favorite and seemingly more reliable European is le= ss clear. I think some arctic air will get into the Northern Plains, Great = Lakes and Northeast. The jet stream looks too zonal farther South. However,= heavy cold air can sometimes press South in a zonal flow. I don't see a th= reat in the Southern half of the country where in fact this period should b= e above normal. The main threat appears to be North of 40 degrees Latitude = meaning this is mainly a far Northern U.S. event. Day 6: Saturday, Janu= ary 19, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncras= y's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 -= 4 ERCOT(SP) 58 -7 FRCC(SE) 77 +1 MAAC(NE) 35 -7 MAIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 25= +1 NPCC(NE) 27 -4 SERC(SE) 54 -4 SPP(SP) 42 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +2 WSCC(RK) 32 = +1 WSCC(SW) 54 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP = NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 27 28 35 26 56 53 49 Max 28 31 32 40 32 58 60 54 = Min 22 23 25 30 20 53 46 44 Range 6 8 7 10 12 5 14 10 StD-P 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9= 3.3 1.7 3.9 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Fore= cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Sunday, January 20, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 36 NC ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 NC MAAC(NE) 39 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +1 MAPP= (HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE) 55 -2 SPP(SP) 47 NC WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(= RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 55 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 28 29 35 28 55 54 49 Max 32 33 34 40 34 59= 59 55 Min 20 25 25 30 20 52 49 45 Range 12 8 9 10 14 7 10 10 StD-P 2.6 2.1= 2.6 2.7 4.4 2.6 3.3 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weat= her Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Monday, January 21= , 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMA= GE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 32 -8 ERCOT(SP) 59 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 -1 MAAC(NE) 35 -9 MAIN(CTR) 3= 2 -2 MAPP(HP) 25 -3 NPCC(NE) 31 +6 SERC(SE) 53 -11 SPP(SP) 38 -2 WSCC(NW) 3= 5 +1 WSCC(RK) 28 +9 WSCC(SW) 47 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IM= AGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 30 36 30 57 58 49 Max 35 33 3= 5 41 37 60 62 55 Min 27 28 20 30 25 52 54 45 Range 8 5 15 11 12 8 8 10 StD-= P 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.8 3.7 2.1 2.2 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See = Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Tuesday, J= anuary 22, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 31 -3 ERCOT(SP) 61 +5 FRCC(SE) 69 -3 MAAC(NE) 30 -11 M= AIN(CTR) 39 +10 MAPP(HP) 38 +23 NPCC(NE) 29 -5 SERC(SE) 48 -10 SPP(SP) 53 += 14 WSCC(NW) 30 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 +8 WSCC(SW) 44 -3 Range Standard Deviatio= n [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 33 32 34 29 58 60 4= 8 Max 37 40 37 40 36 64 67 55 Min 30 29 29 30 24 52 57 44 Range 7 11 8 10 1= 2 12 10 11 StD-P 2.2 3.5 2.0 3.3 3.5 3.1 1.9 3.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Clic= k Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix D= ay 10: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola= tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on = image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 +13 ERCOT(SP) 67 +14 FRCC(SE) 71= +2 MAAC(NE) 36 +2 MAIN(CTR) 46 +25 MAPP(HP) 37 +25 NPCC(NE) 31 +2 SERC(SE)= 59 +9 SPP(SP) 56 +14 WSCC(NW) 27 -6 WSCC(RK) 19 -1 WSCC(SW) 41 -8 Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 = 28 33 29 18 58 56 38 Max 43 34 38 35 23 61 64 44 Min 27 21 31 27 12 54 45 3= 3 Range 16 13 7 8 11 7 19 11 StD-P 5.7 4.1 1.9 2.2 3.3 1.7 6.6 4.1 Count 6 = 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vola= tility Matrix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [= IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also= be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequo= te.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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