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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Monday, Nov 19, 2001 at 07:= 33AM EST Commentary last updated: Monday, Nov 19, 2001 at 09:21AM EST M= eteorologist: Andy Weingarten APB Energy / True Quote Congratulations= Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/= AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AM= S or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Tempe= rature' Today: Monday, November 19, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Te= mp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 56 -1 ERCOT(SP) 64 NC FRC= C(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 64 -1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +5 MAPP(HP) 42 +7 NPCC(NE) 59 NC SE= RC(SE) 71 +1 SPP(SP) 51 NC WSCC(NW) 52 NC WSCC(RK) 51 +5 WSCC(SW) 66 +1 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea= n 46 40 55 50 40 67 60 61 Max 51 50 61 53 51 72 63 67 Min 43 33 52 46 29 63= 56 57 Range 8 17 9 7 22 9 7 10 StD-P 1.5 5.0 2.9 2.0 6.2 2.8 1.5 2.4 Count= 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used With= in the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: Much colder air now in t= he Plains will translate East. Zonal flow by midweek will modify the effect= s. Legitimate arctic air starts to pool in Western Canada late next week. = Last weeks double digit above normal readings are a thing of the past as a = strong cold front has moved through the Plains. Temperatures in the teens a= nd 20's are common there this morning. It is colder, I grant you, but my fe= ars of not seeing any real arctic air in this have turned out to be correct= . In fact, a return to zonal flow is expected before the end of the week an= d another warm up commences. Now, the jet stream is suppressed farther Sout= h, so we won't see a return to the previous 2 weeks warmth. However, a retu= rn to slightly above normal is possible late in the 5 day period so tempera= ture departures this! week are not that significant. This of course is an i= mportant travel week due to the holiday. I do not see a major storm in the = immediate horizon. The current Eastern front does have some moisture with i= t. Showers have broken out ahead of it and eventually some Lake Effect snow= s could occur tomorrow and Wednesday. The West coast has some rain this mor= ning, but this storm should weaken inland and no major temperature trend ch= anges are seen in the short range for this area. Tomorrow: Tuesday, Novemb= er 20, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IM= AGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 +3 ERCOT(SP) 60 NC FRCC(SE) 77 +2 MAAC(NE) 46 -5 MAIN(C= TR) 42 +5 MAPP(HP) 48 +10 NPCC(NE) 44 -6 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 57 +4 WSCC(= NW) 50 -2 WSCC(RK) 57 +4 WSCC(SW) 66 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 48 46 47 45 60 52 61 Max 44= 60 50 53 58 64 62 67 Min 33 42 42 44 33 56 43 56 Range 11 18 8 9 25 8 19 1= 1 StD-P 3.2 5.6 1.4 2.0 7.2 1.8 4.2 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click= Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day= 3: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volati= lity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 +7 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 +5 = MAAC(NE) 44 +1 MAIN(CTR) 51 +8 MAPP(HP) 52 +7 NPCC(NE) 39 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3= SPP(SP) 61 +5 WSCC(NW) 48 NC WSCC(RK) 51 +2 WSCC(SW) 64 NC Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 48 35 4= 5 44 52 55 61 Max 51 56 41 49 53 59 64 65 Min 38 42 31 41 36 44 48 57 Range= 13 14 10 8 17 15 16 8 StD-P 3.5 4.0 2.9 2.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 2.3 Count 10 10 10= 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vo= latility Matrix Day 4: Thursday, November 22, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][= IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 50 +6 ERCOT(SP) 6= 8 NC FRCC(SE) 73 +2 MAAC(NE) 51 +6 MAIN(CTR) 49 +6 MAPP(HP) 46 +4 NPCC(NE) = 43 +3 SERC(SE) 62 +6 SPP(SP) 59 +4 WSCC(NW) 49 NC WSCC(RK) 48 +3 WSCC(SW) 6= 5 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE S= P SW Mean 44 45 39 45 44 56 59 61 Max 48 50 45 49 49 64 66 65 Min 41 39 34 = 43 39 51 53 58 Range 7 11 11 6 10 13 13 7 StD-P 2.0 3.7 3.0 1.7 3.2 3.3 4.0= 2.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wi= thin the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Friday, November 23, 2001 Syncrasy's = Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 51 +6 ER= COT(SP) 73 +3 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 54 +6 MAIN(CTR) 49 +4 MAPP(HP) 45 +3 = NPCC(NE) 46 +6 SERC(SE) 65 +5 SPP(SP) 59 +2 WSCC(NW) 45 NC WSCC(RK) 44 +1 W= SCC(SW) 62 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE N= W RK SE SP SW Mean 46 44 45 40 39 62 64 58 Max 48 47 48 45 46 66 69 62 Min = 42 39 39 37 32 57 57 55 Range 6 8 9 8 14 9 12 7 StD-P 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.8 4.1 2= .3 4.7 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast U= sed Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: I am still not e= xpecting any major arctic out breaks in the 6-10 day period, but hemispheri= c changes during the period may well spell an arctic outbreak going into ea= rly December. It will be interesting to see if arctic air now forecast to = pool in Western Canada next week materializes at the expected rate and inte= nsity. Assuming it does, then a SE spreading is due just outside this perio= d. But, before that happens inside this period, models are leaning towards = a significant storm forming in the SW and heading towards the Great Lakes. = Overall, temperatures may return to above normal in the East ahead of this= feature. The West may go below normal in response to the deep trough if in= fact it materializes. Day 6: Saturday, November 24, 2001 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 +5 ERCOT= (SP) 72 +3 FRCC(SE) 78 +2 MAAC(NE) 54 +3 MAIN(CTR) 51 +5 MAPP(HP) 43 +3 NPC= C(NE) 47 +4 SERC(SE) 67 +4 SPP(SP) 59 +3 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 -3 WSCC= (SW) 57 -5 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW R= K SE SP SW Mean 46 38 47 38 31 64 65 52 Max 52 44 50 44 39 68 70 57 Min 43 = 35 44 36 25 60 61 47 Range 9 9 6 8 14 8 9 10 StD-P 3.0 2.1 1.3 2.0 4.1 1.8 = 2.9 3.5 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Sunday, November 25, 2001 Syncrasy= 's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 51 +4= ERCOT(SP) 71 NC FRCC(SE) 78 +4 MAAC(NE) 55 +2 MAIN(CTR) 47 +1 MAPP(HP) 38 = -2 NPCC(NE) 48 +3 SERC(SE) 67 +4 SPP(SP) 56 -3 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 34 -= 7 WSCC(SW) 57 -3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 35 48 37 27 65 65 50 Max 51 38 54 44 35 69 68 57 M= in 41 33 44 34 22 62 62 44 Range 10 5 10 10 13 7 6 13 StD-P 2.8 1.7 3.0 2.5= 5.1 2.0 1.5 4.2 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Fore= cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Monday, November 26, 2001 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(C= TR) 43 -5 ERCOT(SP) 64 -5 FRCC(SE) 71 +4 MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 48 -7 MAP= P(HP) 38 -12 NPCC(NE) 41 +3 SERC(SE) 62 +4 SPP(SP) 55 -8 WSCC(NW) 32 +3 WSC= C(RK) 18 -8 WSCC(SW) 43 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] R= eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 34 45 36 26 65 62 49 Max 46 40 56 43 36 = 69 70 57 Min 41 29 41 32 18 62 54 43 Range 5 11 15 11 18 7 16 14 StD-P 1.6 = 2.9 3.5 3.4 5.6 2.4 2.5 4.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each W= eather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Tuesday, Novembe= r 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMA= GE] ECAR(CTR) 55 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 -9 FRCC(SE) 72 +3 MAAC(NE) 50 -2 MAIN(CT= R) 50 -8 MAPP(HP) 31 -7 NPCC(NE) 40 -3 SERC(SE) 65 +3 SPP(SP) 41 -11 WSCC(N= W) 31 -7 WSCC(RK) 11 -8 WSCC(SW) 42 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 29 46 35 21 64 54 48 Max 55 = 37 52 41 35 69 66 56 Min 35 24 43 31 11 61 48 42 Range 20 13 9 10 24 8 18 1= 4 StD-P 6.0 4.9 2.8 3.6 7.7 2.4 4.2 4.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here t= o See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Wed= nesday, November 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Ma= trix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to = enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 -8 ERCOT(SP) 54 +3 FRCC(SE) 73 +2 MAAC(NE= ) 59 +2 MAIN(CTR) 32 -8 MAPP(HP) 17 -2 NPCC(NE) 51 NC SERC(SE) 65 +1 SPP(SP= ) 32 -2 WSCC(NW) 32 -3 WSCC(RK) 10 -17 WSCC(SW) 43 -7 Range Standard De= viation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 20 46 34 17 6= 0 47 44 Max 36 30 54 36 26 66 48 48 Min 31 15 27 32 9 49 44 42 Range 5 15 2= 7 4 17 17 4 6 StD-P 1.1 5.1 7.9 1.3 5.3 5.2 1.2 1.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 C= lick Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma di= splays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from= www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMA= GE] =09 =09=09=09
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