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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 Deve= lopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue Sui= te 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version of= Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you would l= ike to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncrasy= at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscribe_T= raderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this daily em= ail list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com - I= f you would like to be removed from this daily email please reply to = this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary= @syncrasy.com Data last updated: Thursday, Dec 20, 2001 at 09:04AM ET = Commentary last updated: Thursday, Dec 20, 2001 at 09:14AM ET Meteorolog= ist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulations Andy Wei= ngarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seaso= nal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquil= a Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' To= day: Thursday, December 20, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to = enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 +1 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 68 +1 MAAC(NE= ) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 40 +1 MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 39 +1 SERC(SE) 55 +1 SPP(SP= ) 56 +1 WSCC(NW) 41 +2 WSCC(RK) 41 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 +1 Range Standard Dev= iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 34 39 37 35 52= 54 49 Max 40 41 42 41 44 59 64 56 Min 29 29 36 35 30 48 45 46 Range 11 12 = 6 6 14 11 19 10 StD-P 2.8 4.2 1.4 1.4 3.6 3.3 5.3 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 = 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility = Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: Important storm about to hit the West coast= . By the time it exits the East for Christmas, a moderate arctic airmass sh= ould have finally invaded much of the Eastern two thirds of the U.S. The a= ir behind the storm now exiting the NE turned out to be a little colder tha= n expected as 20's and 30's are widespread this morning even down to the Gu= lf Coast. The first real Lake Effect snows of the season are underway in th= e Eastern Lakes. Sunshine farther West will modify this airmass to near if = not slightly above normal this afternoon. But, it is a part of a stepping d= own in temperatures that has gradually occurred over the last week to 10 da= ys. That pattern should continue as Canadian highs are lined up to our NW a= nd I still expect each one to be progressively colder into early January. T= he next storm is plowin! g into the West Coast today with rain this morning= well South into Central California. This system should emerge into Colorad= o tomorrow with a weekend track to the NE toward the Great Lakes then East = from there. I do expect some Christmas weekend snows in the Northern fringe= s of this storm, but more real estate will see rain rather than snow. A bel= ow normal plunge of air should follow this storm by Christmas as ridging ra= pidly develops in the West deepening a trough into the East. Five day tempe= rature numbers still reflect an above normal bias as we see one final warmu= p the next 2-3 days before the colder air strikes late in the period. Tom= orrow: Friday, December 21, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to = enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 -3 ERCOT(SP) 66 +3 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE= ) 40 -1 MAIN(CTR) 38 -4 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP= ) 57 NC WSCC(NW) 38 +3 WSCC(RK) 36 +4 WSCC(SW) 52 NC Range Standard Dev= iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 37 34 36 32 54= 60 48 Max 37 40 42 41 43 61 67 54 Min 29 30 30 33 27 48 55 43 Range 8 10 1= 2 8 16 13 12 11 StD-P 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.4 5.0 3.4 2.8 3.9 Count 14 14 14 14 14 = 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility = Matrix Day 3: Saturday, December 22, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Tem= p. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click o= n image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 46 -1 ERCOT(SP) 65 +3 FRCC(SE) 73= -1 MAAC(NE) 42 -2 MAIN(CTR) 44 +4 MAPP(HP) 28 +1 NPCC(NE) 34 -2 SERC(SE) 5= 8 -1 SPP(SP) 49 +4 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 28 +2 WSCC(SW) 52 NC Range S= tandard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 30 = 30 36 26 56 59 48 Max 42 38 37 39 39 60 63 52 Min 36 25 24 33 18 53 55 44 R= ange 6 13 13 6 21 7 8 8 StD-P 1.2 2.9 3.4 1.8 5.4 2.2 2.6 2.9 Count 12 12 1= 2 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vol= atility Matrix Day 4: Sunday, December 23, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (C= lick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 -2 ERCOT(SP) 56 +2 FRCC(= SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 48 +1 MAIN(CTR) 30 -2 MAPP(HP) 20 NC NPCC(NE) 40 +1 SERC= (SE) 55 -1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 +2 WSCC(SW) 54 -1 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 33 23 38 37 24 59 50 50 Max 39 29 43 40 32 61 63 53 Min 29 17 36 34 14 57 3= 8 44 Range 10 12 7 6 18 4 25 9 StD-P 2.7 3.6 1.8 2.1 4.9 1.1 6.5 2.7 Count = 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Monday, December 24, 2001 Syncrasy's Choic= e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 -4 ERCOT(SP) 52 += 1 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 44 -5 MAIN(CTR) 26 -3 MAPP(HP) 18 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 = NC SERC(SE) 50 NC SPP(SP) 41 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -4 WSCC(RK) 31 -4 WSCC(SW) 54 -= 2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 25 24 39 39 24 52 44 50 Max 30 28 43 43 33 60 55 55 Min 20 20 36 36 = 14 47 30 44 Range 10 8 7 7 19 13 25 11 StD-P 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.9 5.4 3.3 6.9 3.= 5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: With model consisten= cy on my side, I am confident that this 6-10 day forecast period will verif= y colder than normal for much of the East. If it does, it will be the first= period in over two months that runs cold. Relative to normal, it may not b= e as significant as some of the warmer departures have been, but it should = get some attention. There are some differences on where the heart of the co= ld sets up. I believe it will tend to be more on the Plains rather than the= East Coast. But all models in this time frame have a strong ridge West/tro= ugh East signature on them. One additional surprise could be a Southern jet= stream storm. I don't see anything particularly ominous yet, but the setup= suggests something could be in the offing. Day 6: Tuesday, December 25,= 2001 Click Herefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choic= e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 53 -= 1 FRCC(SE) 66 +1 MAAC(NE) 39 -2 MAIN(CTR) 22 -10 MAPP(HP) 14 -13 NPCC(NE) 3= 6 -3 SERC(SE) 46 -1 SPP(SP) 35 -7 WSCC(NW) 40 -3 WSCC(RK) 31 -5 WSCC(SW) 55= -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP= SW Mean 22 22 34 38 25 46 42 50 Max 28 28 40 41 33 54 51 55 Min 17 15 29 3= 5 14 41 33 45 Range 11 13 11 6 19 13 18 10 StD-P 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.0 5.3 3.8 5.= 8 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Wit= hin the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Wednesday, December 26, 2001 Syncrasy'= s Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 28 -7 ERCOT(S= P) 54 -2 FRCC(SE) 64 -1 MAAC(NE) 36 -4 MAIN(CTR) 23 -9 MAPP(HP) 17 -11 NPCC= (NE) 32 -4 SERC(SE) 44 -4 SPP(SP) 37 -8 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 31 -5 WSCC(= SW) 55 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK= SE SP SW Mean 21 23 31 37 26 42 42 50 Max 27 28 36 42 35 48 50 56 Min 15 1= 7 27 34 20 36 33 46 Range 12 11 9 8 15 12 17 10 StD-P 3.5 3.6 2.5 2.9 5.3 3= .9 6.2 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Use= d Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Thursday, December 27, 2001 Syncr= asy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 18 -6 ERC= OT(SP) 48 +4 FRCC(SE) 53 -1 MAAC(NE) 25 -6 MAIN(CTR) 16 -7 MAPP(HP) 10 -11 = NPCC(NE) 25 -8 SERC(SE) 34 -3 SPP(SP) 29 -6 WSCC(NW) 30 -5 WSCC(RK) 15 -5 W= SCC(SW) 44 -6 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE N= W RK SE SP SW Mean 21 23 29 36 23 43 46 49 Max 26 31 33 41 34 49 52 56 Min = 14 17 24 30 14 38 38 43 Range 12 14 9 11 20 11 14 13 StD-P 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 = 5.8 3.7 4.6 4.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Friday, December 28, 2001 Sy= ncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 19 +1 = ERCOT(SP) 41 -2 FRCC(SE) 60 +3 MAAC(NE) 23 -1 MAIN(CTR) 15 -2 MAPP(HP) 8 -1= 0 NPCC(NE) 21 -4 SERC(SE) 37 +1 SPP(SP) 25 -5 WSCC(NW) 30 -6 WSCC(RK) 13 -8= WSCC(SW) 46 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE= NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 20 28 34 23 45 43 50 Max 27 31 35 40 34 51 53 56 Mi= n 14 12 21 29 14 40 37 46 Range 13 19 14 11 20 11 16 10 StD-P 4.1 6.5 4.7 3= .0 5.4 3.4 4.5 3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Fore= cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Saturday, December 29, 200= 1 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) = 18 +5 ERCOT(SP) 43 +4 FRCC(SE) 62 +6 MAAC(NE) 24 +8 MAIN(CTR) 14 NC MAPP(HP= ) 6 -14 NPCC(NE) 23 +7 SERC(SE) 35 +3 SPP(SP) 22 -11 WSCC(NW) 27 -4 WSCC(RK= ) 3 -14 WSCC(SW) 46 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg C= T HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 15 13 25 28 11 39 36 41 Max 21 19 29 33 18 40 3= 9 47 Min 12 6 22 26 5 37 30 34 Range 9 13 7 7 13 3 9 13 StD-P 2.6 5.5 2.2 1= .7 4.4 1.0 2.7 5.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Fore= cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed around= and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? = Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor www.apbenerg= y.comor www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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