Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Dec 27, 2001

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st updated: Thursday, Dec 27, 2001 at 08:26AM EST [IMAGE]Congratulations=
Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/=
AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AM=
S or Aquila [IMAGE]New! << Printable [IMAGE]PDFTrader Summary (You must h=
ave Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definit=
ion of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Thursday, December 27=
, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on =
image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 28 +3 ERCOT(SP) 62 NC FRCC(SE) 61 NC MAAC(N=
E) 33 +2 MAIN(CTR) 29 +2 MAPP(HP) 26 +1 NPCC(NE) 29 +1 SERC(SE) 47 +1 SPP(S=
P) 46 +2 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 57 -1 Range Standard De=
viation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 29 28 38 27 47 52 52 Max 29=
37 30 40 35 54 61 57 Min 23 26 24 35 22 43 45 48 Range 6 11 6 5 13 11 16 9=
StD-P 1.5 3.3 1.7 1.2 3.8 2.9 4.4 2.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click =
Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Tomor=
row: Friday, December 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit=
y Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 31 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 =
+2 FRCC(SE) 69 +1 MAAC(NE) 38 +1 MAIN(CTR) 27 +2 MAPP(HP) 14 NC NPCC(NE) 31=
+1 SERC(SE) 53 +3 SPP(SP) 48 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 33 +2 WSCC(SW) 58 =
NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 24 =
30 40 31 53 55 54 Max 29 35 33 44 38 60 65 58 Min 21 19 25 38 26 50 45 50 R=
ange 8 16 8 6 12 10 20 8 StD-P 1.9 4.1 1.9 1.2 3.7 2.5 4.6 2.8 Count 14 14 =
14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V=
olatility Matrix Day 3: Saturday, December 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice:=
Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(=
CTR) 23 -2 ERCOT(SP) 56 -3 FRCC(SE) 73 +2 MAAC(NE) 37 +1 MAIN(CTR) 18 -1 MA=
PP(HP) 10 +1 NPCC(NE) 31 +1 SERC(SE) 50 +1 SPP(SP) 33 -2 WSCC(NW) 44 +3 WSC=
C(RK) 30 +2 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW=
RK SE SP SW Mean 18 18 28 41 31 52 49 53 Max 23 24 31 44 37 56 61 58 Min 1=
4 12 23 38 26 50 42 49 Range 9 12 8 6 11 6 19 9 StD-P 2.9 3.4 2.1 2.1 3.2 2=
.1 4.7 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather For=
ecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Sunday, December 30, 2001 =
Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image t=
o enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 21 NC ERCOT(SP) 54 -4 FRCC(SE) 62 -5 MAAC(NE) 30 -=
1 MAIN(CTR) 20 +1 MAPP(HP) 12 +2 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 41 -3 SPP(SP) 36 +=
1 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 34 +7 WSCC(SW) 58 +1 Range Standard Deviation=
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 15 17 25 40 31 44 47 54 Max 18 21 30 =
44 37 54 53 58 Min 11 11 18 37 28 36 41 50 Range 7 10 12 7 9 18 12 8 StD-P =
2.0 2.6 3.5 2.2 3.0 4.8 3.4 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to=
See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Mond=
ay, December 31, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix =
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 24 -1 ERCOT(SP) 56 +6 FRCC(S=
E) 60 -6 MAAC(NE) 31 +1 MAIN(CTR) 20 NC MAPP(HP) 11 -1 NPCC(NE) 26 NC SERC(=
SE) 43 +1 SPP(SP) 38 +7 WSCC(NW) 44 +2 WSCC(RK) 35 +9 WSCC(SW) 59 +3 Ra=
nge Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 16 18 24 41 32 =
43 47 54 Max 20 22 27 44 39 49 52 59 Min 10 14 17 38 27 36 41 51 Range 10 8=
10 6 12 13 11 8 StD-P 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10=
10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatilit=
y Matrix Day 6: Tuesday, January 1, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10=
summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix =
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 24 -3 ERCOT(SP) 57 +8 FRCC(SE=
) 63 -4 MAAC(NE) 30 -4 MAIN(CTR) 22 -1 MAPP(HP) 16 -1 NPCC(NE) 26 -1 SERC(S=
E) 44 +1 SPP(SP) 39 +5 WSCC(NW) 45 +3 WSCC(RK) 36 +5 WSCC(SW) 59 +2 Ran=
ge Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 16 20 24 42 31 4=
3 46 55 Max 20 26 27 45 38 47 54 59 Min 9 17 16 40 26 37 39 52 Range 11 9 1=
1 5 12 10 15 7 StD-P 3.1 2.0 2.8 1.4 3.9 3.1 4.1 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 =
Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix =
Day 7: Wednesday, January 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vol=
atility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 29 NC ERCOT(S=
P) 60 +8 FRCC(SE) 63 -5 MAAC(NE) 34 -2 MAIN(CTR) 27 +4 MAPP(HP) 22 +4 NPCC(=
NE) 27 -2 SERC(SE) 46 +2 SPP(SP) 45 +9 WSCC(NW) 44 +2 WSCC(RK) 40 +7 WSCC(S=
W) 59 +3 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean =
18 27 23 43 34 42 47 55 Max 25 32 29 45 41 49 56 59 Min 12 20 16 41 30 36 3=
6 52 Range 13 12 13 4 11 13 20 7 StD-P 2.8 3.5 3.2 1.1 2.7 4.4 5.5 2.1 Coun=
t 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V=
olatility Matrix Day 8: Thursday, January 3, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: =
Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CT=
R) 19 +3 ERCOT(SP) 60 +25 FRCC(SE) 54 -6 MAAC(NE) 23 -3 MAIN(CTR) 27 +15 MA=
PP(HP) 32 +16 NPCC(NE) 19 +3 SERC(SE) 38 +6 SPP(SP) 50 +28 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 W=
SCC(RK) 35 +2 WSCC(SW) 55 +2 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE =
NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 33 25 41 36 43 51 55 Max 30 39 31 44 41 52 61 59 Min=
20 28 18 38 32 38 38 51 Range 10 11 13 6 9 14 23 8 StD-P 2.2 3.3 3.7 1.9 1=
.9 3.9 5.4 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Friday, January 4, 2002 Sy=
ncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to en=
large) ECAR(CTR) 33 +15 ERCOT(SP) 60 +13 FRCC(SE) 60 +7 MAAC(NE) 29 +5 =
MAIN(CTR) 36 +16 MAPP(HP) 33 +2 NPCC(NE) 24 +5 SERC(SE) 47 +16 SPP(SP) 48 +=
7 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 25 -2 WSCC(SW) 51 -3 Range Standard Deviation=
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 33 28 40 31 47 54 53 Max 35 35 31 =
43 41 51 62 59 Min 26 29 22 38 24 41 44 49 Range 9 6 9 5 17 10 18 10 StD-P =
2.8 2.3 2.7 1.6 5.2 2.5 4.2 3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Eac=
h Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Saturday, Ja=
nuary 5, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (C=
lick on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 36 +11 ERCOT(SP) 49 +3 FRCC(SE) 69 =
+14 MAAC(NE) 39 +12 MAIN(CTR) 33 +6 MAPP(HP) 32 +2 NPCC(NE) 34 +11 SERC(SE)=
54 +16 SPP(SP) 38 NC WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -2 Rang=
e Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 29 29 38 26 48=
45 46 Max 34 36 36 42 33 56 50 53 Min 22 23 23 33 20 36 41 37 Range 12 13 =
13 9 13 20 9 16 StD-P 4.5 4.9 4.3 2.9 4.6 5.8 2.5 6.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6=
Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix =
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