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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Thursday, Jan 10, 2002 at 0= 8:25AM EST Commentary last updated: Thursday, Jan 10, 2002 at 09:12AM ES= T Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratula= tions Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQ= UILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visi= t: AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have A= dobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition = of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Thursday, January 10, 20= 02 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] EC= AR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 71 +4 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 53 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +3= MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 43 NC SERC(SE) 64 +1 SPP(SP) 52 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 = WSCC(RK) 38 +5 WSCC(SW) 60 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 38 42 40 30 61 60 56 Max 44 45 48 43 = 38 66 66 60 Min 38 34 38 35 25 58 57 52 Range 6 11 10 8 13 8 9 8 StD-P 1.9 = 3.2 2.5 2.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.2 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to Se= e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discus= sion: It still appears we will lose the unseasonable warmth in the Plains= this weekend, but the true arctic remains bottled. Models tone down any Ea= st Coast storm for the weekend and show signs of shifting a trough into the= West. A cold front will push through the Northern Plains ending the reco= rd warmth of recent days. But, I still do not see any brutal cold heading i= nto the region in the short term(and longer) so numbers will continue on th= e warmer side of normal. This warm air continues to spread out to the East = and slowly redeveloping to the South as well. Weak to moderate weather syst= ems will traverse the Plains and East with light amounts of rain and snow, = nothing significant here. A stronger system crashes into the Pacific NW thi= s weekend only to fall apart into the Great Basin high that has been anchor= ed ! the last couple of weeks. My five day numbers for temperatures remain = above normal almost coast to coast though again the Plains will be cooler t= han recent days. Tomorrow: Friday, January 11, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice:= Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 +2 ERCOT(SP)= 57 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 46 +3 MAIN(CTR) 39 +3 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE= ) 40 +1 SERC(SE) 57 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 WSCC(RK) 41 +2 WSCC(SW)= 61 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE= SP SW Mean 37 39 40 42 33 59 54 57 Max 43 49 47 45 43 65 65 61 Min 33 33 3= 5 39 24 55 46 52 Range 10 16 12 6 19 10 19 9 StD-P 2.7 4.4 3.0 1.6 4.5 2.7 = 4.0 2.8 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forec= ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Saturday, January 12, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(C= TR) 38 +2 ERCOT(SP) 60 -2 FRCC(SE) 73 +5 MAAC(NE) 42 NC MAIN(CTR) 39 +5 MAP= P(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 NC SERC(SE) 54 +4 SPP(SP) 53 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC= (RK) 41 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Re= g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 38 32 41 37 54 51 57 Max 38 45 42 44 43 6= 1 59 61 Min 31 33 27 37 31 49 40 53 Range 7 12 15 7 12 12 19 8 StD-P 2.0 3.= 6 3.8 2.0 3.2 3.8 4.8 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See = Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Sunday, J= anuary 13, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +6 MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MA= IN(CTR) 36 NC MAPP(HP) 31 -2 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +2 WS= CC(NW) 38 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 NC Range Standard Deviation [IM= AGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 36 33 36 30 53 55 56 Max= 37 43 36 43 43 58 60 61 Min 32 32 30 31 18 50 47 50 Range 5 11 6 12 25 8 1= 3 11 StD-P 1.5 3.0 1.6 3.4 7.3 3.1 3.8 3.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Cl= ick Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 5: Monday, January 14, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volati= lity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -1 FRCC(SE) 73 +5 = MAAC(NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 -1 MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3= SPP(SP) 45 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 30 -3 WSCC(SW) 58 +1 Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 31 33 3= 6 27 55 52 54 Max 36 38 41 40 35 58 61 59 Min 32 25 27 31 17 52 41 50 Range= 4 13 14 9 18 6 20 9 StD-P 1.1 3.2 4.5 2.0 6.0 1.7 5.6 2.5 Count 10 10 10 1= 0 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vola= tility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks c= ontinue to indicate some cold air potential. I continue to disagree on the = magnitude and southward extent. As I mentioned yesterday, they can verify c= orrectly if you are one degree below normal as their forecast is a probabil= ity scheme. I can't totally rule out some arctic air in the normally frigid= northern U.S. this time of year, but current patterns and charts convince = me it would be extremely difficult to send this air very far South. The MRF= and its ensembles remain in the camp of a trough East and ridge holding in= the West. The European and Canadian models hint in the 6-10 day period of = a pattern reversal with more of a trough in the West and ridge in the East.= This ridge would not have near the amplitude of the one that produced the = record warm November and December, but it would! effectively choke off any = cold air East of the Mississippi. I think the European/Canadian combo has d= one a much better job than the MRF this year and may be a believable soluti= on. The one change it does result in though is an opportunity to drive some= cold air into the sparsely populated areas of the Interior NW and Rockies.= Day 6: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 sum= mary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 -1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -6 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 44 +3 M= AIN(CTR) 31 -2 MAPP(HP) 23 -2 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 54 -3 SPP(SP) 41 -6 W= SCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 28 34 36 27 51 51 52 Ma= x 32 34 37 40 37 57 57 57 Min 27 22 31 31 16 47 44 47 Range 5 12 6 9 21 10 = 13 10 StD-P 1.0 4.0 1.9 2.1 7.0 3.5 4.5 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Her= e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: = Wednesday, January 16, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility = Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t= o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 -4 ERCOT(SP) 55 -8 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(= NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 30 -3 MAPP(HP) 21 -6 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 52 -4 SPP(= SP) 41 -5 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 31 -2 WSCC(SW) 56 -1 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 28 32 36 25 = 51 53 50 Max 37 33 35 41 32 57 64 57 Min 25 24 29 31 15 46 42 44 Range 12 9= 6 10 17 11 22 13 StD-P 3.0 2.3 1.4 2.3 6.1 3.8 5.9 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9= 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr= ix Day 8: Thursday, January 17, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 25 -8 ERCOT(SP) 45 -6 FRCC(SE)= 60 -8 MAAC(NE) 31 -10 MAIN(CTR) 22 -10 MAPP(HP) 23 -10 NPCC(NE) 30 -4 SERC= (SE) 41 -13 SPP(SP) 37 NC WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 24 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -3 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean= 27 30 32 38 27 52 52 51 Max 33 33 38 42 35 61 63 56 Min 23 28 28 34 22 45 = 42 47 Range 10 5 10 8 13 16 21 9 StD-P 2.9 1.4 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.3 5.7 3.7 Coun= t 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the = Volatility Matrix Day 9: Friday, January 18, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: D= elta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 29 -3 ERCOT(SP) 43= -14 FRCC(SE) 61 -5 MAAC(NE) 29 -3 MAIN(CTR) 31 -4 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) = 26 -5 SERC(SE) 41 -4 SPP(SP) 40 -4 WSCC(NW) 39 +1 WSCC(RK) 26 -2 WSCC(SW) 5= 1 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE S= P SW Mean 29 32 31 39 28 51 50 52 Max 38 35 38 42 35 61 56 57 Min 24 28 26 = 35 23 45 42 49 Range 14 7 12 7 12 16 14 8 StD-P 2.9 2.0 3.3 1.7 4.0 4.4 4.5= 2.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wi= thin the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Saturday, January 19, 2002 Syncrasy= 's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 -4= ERCOT(SP) 50 -6 FRCC(SE) 62 -5 MAAC(NE) 35 -4 MAIN(CTR) 31 -5 MAPP(HP) 31 = -1 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 44 -7 SPP(SP) 43 -5 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 -= 4 WSCC(SW) 54 -3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 29 32 34 23 49 44 44 Max 32 35 45 39 28 57 50 54 M= in 24 22 23 29 13 42 34 35 Range 8 13 22 10 15 15 16 19 StD-P 3.5 4.5 4.9 4= .0 5.0 2.9 5.1 8.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo= recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed arou= nd and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall= ? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apb= energy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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