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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Thursday, Jan 17, 2002 at 1= 1:50AM EST Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $= 50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more= information please visit: AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader S= ummary (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Clic= k here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: = Thursday, January 17, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility M= atrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to= enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 +1 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(N= E) 48 +4 MAIN(CTR) 28 +1 MAPP(HP) 22 +1 NPCC(NE) 36 +2 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(S= P) 44 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +1 WSCC(RK) 24 NC WSCC(SW) 54 +1 Range Standard De= viation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 23 36 32 21 5= 8 58 49 Max 32 27 39 36 26 61 62 54 Min 25 20 31 27 14 54 53 46 Range 7 7 8= 9 12 7 9 8 StD-P 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.7 2.4 2.6 2.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 1= 2 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Ma= trix Andy Weingarten is out of the office; Due to his absence there wi= ll be no commentary today. Tomorrow: Friday, January 18, 2002 Syncr= asy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30= -1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -2 FRCC(SE) 76 NC MAAC(NE) 38 -2 MAIN(CTR) 23 NC MAPP(HP) = 13 +1 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 52 -2 SPP(SP) 38 -1 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 2= 3 +1 WSCC(SW) 52 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT H= P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 21 31 32 21 56 55 49 Max 29 25 38 35 25 61 61 5= 3 Min 17 16 26 25 14 54 50 44 Range 12 9 12 10 11 7 11 9 StD-P 2.8 2.7 3.0 = 2.6 3.6 1.9 2.6 2.9 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each W= eather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Saturday, Januar= y 19, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMA= GE] ECAR(CTR) 30 +1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -4 FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 34 -3 MAIN(CT= R) 28 +3 MAPP(HP) 24 +4 NPCC(NE) 27 NC SERC(SE) 48 -4 SPP(SP) 40 +4 WSCC(NW= ) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 29 +3 WSCC(SW) 52 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] = [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 26 27 33 23 57 54 47 Max 29 3= 2 33 37 29 59 59 52 Min 22 21 23 30 17 54 50 42 Range 7 11 10 7 12 5 9 10 S= tD-P 2.4 2.7 2.7 1.3 3.2 1.7 2.5 3.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click He= re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4= : Sunday, January 20, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility M= atrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to= enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 +3 ERCOT(SP) 62 +3 FRCC(SE) 77 -2 MAAC(N= E) 40 +3 MAIN(CTR) 33 +3 MAPP(HP) 27 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE) 52 -1 SPP(S= P) 48 +5 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(RK) 32 +1 WSCC(SW) 54 NC Range Standard De= viation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 30 29 35 24 5= 4 53 49 Max 33 34 34 40 32 57 58 54 Min 26 27 25 32 18 48 45 45 Range 7 7 9= 8 14 9 13 9 StD-P 1.8 1.6 2.6 1.7 4.0 2.7 3.8 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 = 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility M= atrix Day 5: Monday, January 21, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 +3 ERCOT(SP) 65 +5 FRCC(SE)= 75 NC MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 +4 MAPP(HP) 31 +3 NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE= ) 58 +4 SPP(SP) 53 +7 WSCC(NW) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 39 +3 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 = 34 34 36 31 57 58 51 Max 37 42 38 41 40 61 62 57 Min 31 30 31 33 26 51 54 4= 6 Range 6 12 7 8 14 10 8 11 StD-P 1.5 2.9 1.7 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.3 Count 10 = 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within t= he Volatility Matrix Day 6: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 Click Here for S= yncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola= tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on = image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 +5 ERCOT(SP) 70 +7 FRCC(SE) 75 += 3 MAAC(NE) 45 +3 MAIN(CTR) 41 +5 MAPP(HP) 31 NC NPCC(NE) 36 +5 SERC(SE) 59 = +4 SPP(SP) 55 +4 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range Sta= ndard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 33 35= 34 30 59 61 51 Max 38 38 39 41 39 62 66 57 Min 32 29 31 29 24 56 58 45 Ran= ge 6 9 8 12 15 6 8 12 StD-P 1.9 2.3 1.7 4.0 4.7 1.8 1.7 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9= 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility = Matrix Day 7: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Tem= p. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (= Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 42 +3 ERCOT(SP) 68 +4 FRCC= (SE) 75 +2 MAAC(NE) 47 +5 MAIN(CTR) 35 NC MAPP(HP) 24 -3 NPCC(NE) 38 +5 SER= C(SE) 60 +5 SPP(SP) 47 +1 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 NC WSCC(SW) 57 +2 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean= 35 29 37 34 24 61 62 50 Max 43 39 41 39 39 62 67 57 Min 31 23 34 29 15 60 = 57 44 Range 12 16 7 10 24 2 10 13 StD-P 3.4 3.8 2.1 3.7 7.7 0.7 2.9 3.7 Cou= nt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the= Volatility Matrix Day 8: Thursday, January 24, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice= : Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 -11 ERCOT(S= P) 60 +12 FRCC(SE) 72 +1 MAAC(NE) 38 -14 MAIN(CTR) 26 -9 MAPP(HP) 21 NC NPC= C(NE) 31 -11 SERC(SE) 60 NC SPP(SP) 36 NC WSCC(NW) 35 +2 WSCC(RK) 24 +6 WSC= C(SW) 47 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW = RK SE SP SW Mean 32 28 38 37 25 62 56 50 Max 38 31 50 42 35 66 64 57 Min 27= 24 33 32 16 59 45 47 Range 11 7 17 10 19 7 19 10 StD-P 4.0 1.9 3.6 2.8 5.7= 1.8 3.5 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast= Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Friday, January 25, 2002 Sync= rasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][= IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 2= 9 +4 ERCOT(SP) 45 NC FRCC(SE) 70 +1 MAAC(NE) 41 -1 MAIN(CTR) 29 +14 MAPP(HP= ) 33 +31 NPCC(NE) 24 -19 SERC(SE) 52 +7 SPP(SP) 40 +7 WSCC(NW) 38 +2 WSCC(R= K) 31 +10 WSCC(SW) 53 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 31 38 37 31 57 49 52 Max 30 38 51 42 37 60= 56 58 Min 19 26 28 32 26 48 43 50 Range 11 12 23 10 11 12 13 8 StD-P 2.4 4= .3 6.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 4.0 2.3 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each We= ather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Saturday, Janua= ry 26, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IM= AGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 +28 ERCOT(SP) 52 +2 FRCC(SE) 54 +1 MAAC(NE) 27 +1 MAIN(= CTR) 41 +42 MAPP(HP) 42 +49 NPCC(NE) 16 -10 SERC(SE) 44 +5 SPP(SP) 49 +11 W= SCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 35 +2 WSCC(SW) 54 NC Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 33 23 32 27 43 45 45 Ma= x 39 43 26 38 34 46 51 54 Min 19 24 19 29 18 38 33 36 Range 20 19 7 9 16 8 = 18 18 StD-P 7.0 6.8 2.7 3.7 5.5 2.5 6.3 7.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Her= e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader= Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, = RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syn= crasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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