Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Jun 07, 2001

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mail to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated Thur=
sday, Jun 07, 2001 at 07:51AM EST Commentary last updated Thursday, Jun=
07, 2001 at 08:47AM EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / Tr=
ue Quote Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperatu=
re' Today: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 7, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: =
Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) =
ECAR(CTR) 74 NC ERCOT(SP) 88 NC FRCC(SE) 88 -1 MAAC(NE) 77 +2 M=
AIN(CTR) 74 NC MAPP(HP) 71 -2 NPCC(NE) 75 +2 SERC(SE) 83 +2 SPP=
(SP) 83 +1 WSCC(NW) 74 NC WSCC(RK) 77 -1 WSCC(SW) 88 +1 Ran=
ge Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 69 7=
2 69 70 77 80 85 86 Max 75 77 76 76 81 85 89 89 Min 65 68 63 62 73=
76 82 81 Range 10 9 13 14 8 9 7 8 StD-P 2.6 2.2 5.0 3.4 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.=
2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 1-5 Discussion: There are two big forecas=
t questions to be answered in the short term. One concerns the future of Tr=
opical Storm Allisons remnants and the second is how strong the trough rede=
velops in the East. Allison in the short term looks fairly easy to answer. =
With the main jet stream to the North and ridges East and West, Allison lik=
ely will not move very much. I still expect more significant rainfall along=
the Western Gulf Coast for the next 2-3 days though probably not quite as =
heavy as yesterday. Just as an aside, there is one model that pushes the re=
mnants all the way into the Ohio valley next week and another that pushes t=
hem back into the Gulf waters where it could possibly regenerate. I am disc=
ounting both solutions for now with the feeling that it will eventually fiz=
zle in Louisiana this weekend. The trough in the East should reamplify in t=
he Gre! at Lakes by Friday and then linger in the NE through the five day p=
eriod. I still expect temperatures to run a bit below normal though some wa=
rming is on the way. For the West, a strong upper low will crash into the P=
NW this weekend and move East towards the Northern Plains early next week. =
Light to moderate rain will accompany this feature. Temperatures will trend=
strongly below normal in the North. Some cooling perhaps to near normal wi=
ll occur in the South. Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 8, 2001. =
Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on im=
age to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 76 NC ERCOT(SP) 87 -1 FRCC(SE) 88 NC =
MAAC(NE) 78 NC MAIN(CTR) 76 -1 MAPP(HP) 77 NC NPCC(NE) 74 +1 S=
ERC(SE) 83 NC SPP(SP) 83 -1 WSCC(NW) 75 NC WSCC(RK) 82 NC WSCC(=
SW) 87 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE =
SP SW Mean 72 77 68 69 80 79 84 84 Max 76 81 75 75 84 84 87 87 Mi=
n 67 74 62 62 77 76 81 78 Range 10 8 13 13 7 8 6 9 StD-P 2.7 2.0 4.=
5 4.2 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Day 3: Summary Forecast for=
Sat, Jun 9, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix =
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 77 NC ERCOT(SP) 89 -=
2 FRCC(SE) 88 NC MAAC(NE) 78 +1 MAIN(CTR) 79 NC MAPP(HP) 79 -1 =
NPCC(NE) 73 NC SERC(SE) 85 NC SPP(SP) 87 -1 WSCC(NW) 68 -4 WSC=
C(RK) 84 -1 WSCC(SW) 84 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT =
HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 73 79 67 64 84 79 85 83 Max 79 83 7=
5 69 87 85 89 85 Min 68 74 61 58 81 76 83 81 Range 10 9 14 11 7 9 6 =
4 StD-P 3.1 2.8 4.7 4.1 2.0 3.3 2.2 1.3 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Day 4: =
Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. =
Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 78 =
NC ERCOT(SP) 91 -2 FRCC(SE) 88 -1 MAAC(NE) 81 +3 MAIN(CTR) 81 -=
1 MAPP(HP) 80 -1 NPCC(NE) 76 +1 SERC(SE) 87 NC SPP(SP) 90 NC W=
SCC(NW) 64 -3 WSCC(RK) 81 -2 WSCC(SW) 83 NC Range Standard Dev=
iation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 74 80 67 58 82 80 8=
7 81 Max 80 87 77 64 85 87 91 83 Min 70 75 63 53 80 77 84 80 Rang=
e 10 12 14 12 6 10 7 3 StD-P 2.5 4.0 4.1 4.4 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.1 Count 6 6=
6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001. Syncrasy's C=
hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarg=
e) ECAR(CTR) 82 NC ERCOT(SP) 92 -2 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 81=
NC MAIN(CTR) 83 NC MAPP(HP) 76 -2 NPCC(NE) 75 +1 SERC(SE) 89 =
NC SPP(SP) 90 -1 WSCC(NW) 67 +3 WSCC(RK) 75 -2 WSCC(SW) 82 NC =
Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean=
73 73 65 55 73 80 85 76 Max 80 86 77 67 81 88 92 82 65 59 59 4=
0 53 72 73 57 Range 15 27 18 27 28 16 19 25 StD-P 3.1 8.2 4.0 5.2 6.7 3=
.0 4.1 6.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 discussion: There is still =
no one model that meets my needs with regards to the evolving long term pat=
tern. The European looks much too cold in the NE, the MRF as usual has flip=
ped and now surges warm air into the NE and looks too warm there. The Canad=
ian looks more reasonable in the East, but too strong and too far South wit=
h a trough in the West. Where there seems to be agreement is in the middle =
of the nation where a large ridge should reside. The ridge will result in a=
warmer than normal pattern in my view from the SW to the Central Plains to=
the Great Lakes. However, the departures do not look too significant. In a=
ddition there still appears to be opportunity for rainfall especially for t=
he South and also East of the Mississippi. With all of the model uncertaint=
y East and West, pattern recognition indicates to me that troughs will prev=
ail in the NW a! nd NE given the ridge in the middle. The NW trough may be =
a little stronger than seasonal norms resulting in more cooler than normal =
air for the PNW. The NE trough looks seasonal to me. These trends continue =
to reflect thoughts I have advertised all week long, so there is no real ch=
ange from previous forecasts. Day 6: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 200=
1. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on=
image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 83 +1 ERCOT(SP) 91 -2 FRCC(SE) 90 =
+1 MAAC(NE) 82 NC MAIN(CTR) 79 -2 MAPP(HP) 72 -1 NPCC(NE) 78 +1=
SERC(SE) 88 NC SPP(SP) 84 -3 WSCC(NW) 71 +2 WSCC(RK) 73 +1 WS=
CC(SW) 82 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK S=
E SP SW Mean 74 69 68 65 70 81 87 82 Max 78 77 80 71 75 88 90 83 =
Min 70 62 63 59 66 79 85 80 Range 8 15 17 12 9 9 5 4 StD-P 3.0 5.8=
4.9 3.6 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.5 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Summary Forecast =
for Wed, Jun 13, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matri=
x (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 79 -1 ERCOT(SP) 89=
-3 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 80 -2 MAIN(CTR) 75 -1 MAPP(HP) 72 =
+2 NPCC(NE) 76 -2 SERC(SE) 87 -1 SPP(SP) 80 -2 WSCC(NW) 74 +2 =
WSCC(RK) 74 +2 WSCC(SW) 83 +1 Range Standard Deviation Reg C=
T HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 69 68 66 69 73 81 84 84 Max 75 7=
3 77 74 76 87 87 88 Min 66 64 60 67 70 79 79 82 Range 9 9 17 6 6 8 8=
6 StD-P 2.7 3.6 4.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.6 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8:=
Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. =
Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 79 =
+10 ERCOT(SP) 89 +4 FRCC(SE) 89 +11 MAAC(NE) 80 +6 MAIN(CTR) 77=
+13 MAPP(HP) 75 +12 NPCC(NE) 76 +9 SERC(SE) 86 +7 SPP(SP) 85 =
+11 WSCC(NW) 75 +1 WSCC(RK) 78 +3 WSCC(SW) 84 +4 Range Standa=
rd Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 71 77 67 70 8=
0 81 84 86 Max 76 79 77 75 80 87 89 89 Min 68 75 62 67 79 79 81 84=
Range 9 4 15 8 1 8 8 5 StD-P 2.1 1.8 4.5 2.5 0.4 2.4 2.6 2.1 Count 5=
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001. Syncrasy's=
Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enla=
rge) ECAR(CTR) 74 +13 ERCOT(SP) 83 -1 FRCC(SE) 80 +1 MAAC(NE) =
73 +3 MAIN(CTR) 75 +14 MAPP(HP) 75 +14 NPCC(NE) 66 +1 SERC(SE) =
78 +1 SPP(SP) 85 +8 WSCC(NW) 67 -13 WSCC(RK) 77 -1 WSCC(SW) 84=
+4 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW =
Mean 73 80 64 70 84 78 83 85 Max 75 85 68 78 85 79 84 87 Min 7=
0 76 59 67 83 77 83 84 Range 5 10 10 11 3 2 1 3 StD-P 2.1 4.6 4.4 3.8 1=
.3 0.7 0.4 1.6 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sat, =
Jun 16, 2001. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix =
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 75 +16 ERCOT(SP) 85 +2 FR=
CC(SE) 80 +1 MAAC(NE) 74 +10 MAIN(CTR) 75 +16 MAPP(HP) 69 +10 N=
PCC(NE) 68 +8 SERC(SE) 78 +1 SPP(SP) 86 +11 WSCC(NW) 69 -9 WSCC=
(RK) 73 -3 WSCC(SW) 81 +2 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT H=
P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 65 65 64 61 69 74 78 72 Max 73 70 70=
69 78 78 86 81 Min 56 60 57 49 59 69 70 64 Range 18 10 14 20 19 9 1=
6 17 StD-P 8.4 4.1 6.6 8.3 8.9 4.5 7.9 8.5 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Tra=
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